Matt Colville weighs in.

[Remathilis]

Whilst I like your explanation, I don't believe this is the case.

I think Cao understood Magic a hell of a lot better than he understands D&D. Also, I don't think the goal of Arena was to fail to replace MtG/Magic Online, I suspect he considers that a failing of Arena, not a success.

Also recall that he didn't want WotC to buy Beyond, he wanted to literally destroy Beyond. He allegedly put out an email with that title (and I don't doubt it).

I don't believe Cao planned to keep support for MTGO or (now) D&DB going. I also don't think he is likely to kill either. I think the VTT will be an attempt to Arena-ize D&D; a flashy spectacle in which to play in, but only in select (and highly monetized) methods. Much like you can't use Arena to play four-person Commander, I don't think the VTT will support different playstyles other than "latest AP or mini-dungeon drop". I'm sure the books will still be produced (paper Magic is still sold) and I imagine D&D Beyond will get versions of them (MTGO gets the latest sets) but I think that, like Arena, the digital future will be focused on only playstyles they can monetize and sell us.

Paper play, with or without online tools, won't die, but they aren't going to be the focus. Arena and VTT will be.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

I mean, the old Moldvay/Cook B/X books were looseleaf if you pulled them apart and put them in a binder like the three holes on the side and the organization encouraged you to do. I knew a guy who did exactly that.

Also TSR put out the Marvel character profiles in a looseleaf format when they were doing the MC stuff for 2e. They really liked the idea that we'd be putting things into binders for some reason.

Yeah, I mean, on one level, I can see the idea.

On the other hand, I did looseleafing for like 3-4 years (quite a while back) because when my role got expanded in the library I took over from the person who was doing it (I'd never have signed up for it lol), and good god. It got me hospitalized once! I'd been looseleafing day-in-day-out, super-efficiently for like three days because we'd got tons of stuff in, and then suddenly I got this incredible band of intense pain across my chest, and it wouldn't go away. No pain in my arm so and my heart seemed find so I wasn't worried but everyone else was and my boss called an ambulance and I ended up in hospital with those sticky heart monitor things all over me for like 8+ hours before they were like "You injured the muscles across your chest, your heart is fine" and I'm like "Yeah, that's what I thought", and they gave me some ibuprofen (lol) and sent me home.

And god the looseleafs which were run by people who were cheap and were really heavy on errata were the worst, because you'd end up with page like 654/f/63-65/a (I am not kidding), because they were too cheap to reprint 40 tissue-thin pages right, instead printing like 15 with crazy numbering to try and fit in to existing page-numbering.

 

[Malmuria]

the kids are ALWAYS the future, and we can adapt or be left behind

I'm not sure what this means...it seems you describing people picking up whatever is the current edition of the game. In that sense, newcomers are not the driving force behind new iterations on the game, they are just passive consumers.

The concern, or one of the concerns, in the OP has to do with the diversity of entry points for ttrpg newcomers, and specifically that a business aim of OneDND is to make that range of entry points more narrow than it already is.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

I'm not sure what this means...it seems you describing people picking up whatever is the current edition of the game. In that sense, newcomers are not the driving force behind new iterations on the game, they are just passive consumers.

no in general each edition (in my experience starting in 2e but hearing stories of 1e) is that people house rule and find problems and complain (back then at cons and in letters, now here and on twitter) and the next edition takes those ideas and fixes and moves forward... BUT

BIg BUT!!! But not everyone moves forward. You have some 'left behinds'

then like you said the new kids come in and don't know what a Thac0 is or that haste used to let you cast 2 spells. Those kids then push through the next iteration as well.

5e DID break this mold... instead of forward it looked back, no that is too harsh, but it did look back a lot while trying to look a little forward as well...

The concern, or one of the concerns, in the OP has to do with the diversity of entry points for ttrpg newcomers, and specifically that a business aim of OneDND is to make that range of entry points more narrow than it already is.

except by nukeing the OGL it WILL diversify the entry points.

I don't know what the next "Vampire Minds Eye Theater" will be, but if no one can make D&D adjacent products we will get a glut of new games and one of them WILL be the next big thing. It will create a new group of RPG players and it will broaden the entry points...

now if that is worth nueking the OGL, putting a ton of good people out of work and causeing new edition wars is debatable to say the least.

 

[Jaeger]

So there’s nothing easy about Diablo Immortal’s performance. WOW isn’t four of a kind, it’s the Royal Straight Flush. Diablo Immortal? At least a Flush. Maybe a full house. D&D as it exists now? That’s two pair. And right now? WotC might end up with a king high or something.

But is it ?

4e was still the #1 RPG for years in spite of all the backlash.

Even now there are posts on enworld defending aspects of the 1.2 OGL draft...

I would not bet against the inherent impulse of the majority of D&D players to consume the new hotness on release regardless of any current controversy.

As you can see, I am extremely cynical about the average D&D players ability to truly walk away from their favorite RPG IP...

 

[Haplo781]

But is it ?

4e was still the #1 RPG for years in spite of all the backlash.

Even now there are posts on enworld defending aspects of the 1.2 OGL draft...

I would not bet against the inherent impulse of the majority of D&D players to consume the new hotness on release regardless of any current controversy.

D&D hasn't been sitting at the same table as WoW and Diablo. They've been on a hot streak at the penny-ante game and think they're ready for the world series of poker.

 

[Jaeger]

D&D hasn't been sitting at the same table as WoW and Diablo. They've been on a hot streak at the penny-ante game and think they're ready for the world series of poker.

Absolutely true.

That is also the entire reason that wotc is going all-in on the D&D OneVTT.

WotC wants what Diablo Immortal has.

They are hoping to convert their current player network into a VTT money making machine.

And the haters can all eat cake...

 

[Haplo781]

Absolutely true.

That is also the entire reason that wotc is going all-in on the D&D OneVTT.

WotC wants what Diablo Immortal has.

They are hoping to convert their current player network into a VTT money making machine.

And the haters can all eat cake...

Also why I lend quite a bit of credence to the rumors of the D&D and MtG universes merging. D&D is a lot of generic fantasy tropes with a handful of iconic monsters mixed in. MtG has a whole bunch of original, protectable elements. You add those to the D&D brand and suddenly it's a lot harder to make a knockoff.

 

[eyeheartawk]

Also why I lend quite a bit of credence to the rumors of the D&D and MtG universes merging. D&D is a lot of generic fantasy tropes with a handful of iconic monsters mixed in. MtG has a whole bunch of original, protectable elements. You add those to the D&D brand and suddenly it's a lot harder to make a knockoff.

That's one possibility.

The other possibility is that you end up with Sigmarines.

 

[doctorbadwolf]

It is, though. For a purely digital subscription, which isn't even giving you permanent copies? It's wildly out-of-wack.

It's double the price of subscriptions which provide nigh-endless content, like Netflix or World of Warcraft.

And hell, even at $30, we've gotta assume that's including access to every single book, because otherwise, you're what, having to buy books on top of that? And no doubt you are buying minis, tiles, dice, etc. on top, even if some are "free" (lol).

Why do you think that the highest tier of sub, assuming this info is even remotely legit in the first place, wouldn't include access to all official vtt assets?

 

[Jaeger]

Also why I lend quite a bit of credence to the rumors of the D&D and MtG universes merging. D&D is a lot of generic fantasy tropes with a handful of iconic monsters mixed in. MtG has a whole bunch of original, protectable elements. You add those to the D&D brand and suddenly it's a lot harder to make a knockoff.

I find the corporate logic of that entirely persuasive.

It would not surprise me in the least if those rumors all come true.

 

[Jer]

Also why I lend quite a bit of credence to the rumors of the D&D and MtG universes merging. D&D is a lot of generic fantasy tropes with a handful of iconic monsters mixed in. MtG has a whole bunch of original, protectable elements. You add those to the D&D brand and suddenly it's a lot harder to make a knockoff.

If Wizards decided that the way to make the "D&D brand" protectable was to merge it with MtG and bring over a whole lot of "protectable elements" into the game I would love to see what happened.

My prediction is that they would kill the brand hard by doing it. Because part of the reason that D&D is so successful is because it's such "generic fantasy". Anyone can project whatever they want into the game within the bounds of working with D&D's class system, which is also fairly generic.

I don't think it's a coincidence that 5e is the edition of the game that is the most generic and also the most successful. Or that it came as a reaction to an edition of the game that attempted to aggressively tie more story elements into the game and be less generic.

 

[Haplo781]

If Wizards decided that the way to make the "D&D brand" protectable was to merge it with MtG and bring over a whole lot of "protectable elements" into the game I would love to see what happened.

My prediction is that they would kill the brand hard by doing it. Because part of the reason that D&D is so successful is because it's such "generic fantasy". Anyone can project whatever they want into the game within the bounds of working with D&D's class system, which is also fairly generic.

I don't think it's a coincidence that 5e is the edition of the game that is the most generic and also the most successful. Or that it came as a reaction to an edition of the game that attempted to aggressively tie more story elements into the game and be less generic.

The irony of WotC repeating all their mistakes from 2008 times 10 is delicious as a 4e fan.

 

[Jer]

The irony of WotC repeating all their mistakes from 2008 times 10 is delicious as a 4e fan.

I know right? It's like "you realize you guys JUST did a smaller version of all of this not so long ago and it didn't work, right?"

But of course corporate execs can't learn from other people's mistakes (even though that's literally one of the things an MBA is supposed to be able to teach you to do). They have to touch that hot stove for themselves.

 

[raniE]

Absolutely true.

That is also the entire reason that wotc is going all-in on the D&D OneVTT.

WotC wants what Diablo Immortal has.

They are hoping to convert their current player network into a VTT money making machine.

And the haters can all eat cake...

Right, that seems clear to me. The question isn’t “do they want this?” It’s “do they have a hope in hell of succeeding?” Diablo Immortal is clearly making money. But not all video games do. I don’t see WotC’s position here as particularly strong.

 

[Staffan]

Don't! Just don't!

Wasn't there some RPG back in the day that was looseleaf format? Or am I just thinking of the 2E Monstrous Compendium, which effectively was.

One of the editions of Hârnmaster was.

 

[Remathilis]

The irony of WotC repeating all their mistakes from 2008 times 10 is delicious as a 4e fan.

To be honest, 4e was the logical answer to "how do we fix the problems of 3.x?" Every rule was designed as a reaction to a valid criticism of 3e, and the GSL was the natural response to the desire to take something that was open and want to close it up again. It is not surprising that Pathfinder 2e's attempt to answer the former question ended up with a lot of 4e DNA in it, and WotC's attempts to lean on brand recognition would reinvent the latter.

4e was prophetic, in the Cassandra sense of the word.

 

[Plokman]

I know right? It's like "you realize you guys JUST did a smaller version of all of this not so long ago and it didn't work, right?"

But of course corporate execs can't learn from other people's mistakes (even though that's literally one of the things an MBA is supposed to be able to teach you to do). They have to touch that hot stove for themselves.

Corporate minds have no imagination, example "Globotech" from Small Soldiers, what was the first thing the corporate said when learn (which the thing Irwin was talking about) as in find new stuff from the world and make something New was mentioned he automatically went to the "Kids love action" true but we also crave substance as a kid.

A.C. Gilbert would never of let go of his toy company were he alive in the 90s, he wanted to give kids tools to make their own world in miniature hence why he invented the Erector set. Toys lead to TTRPGs because when you have toys and play with friends you eventually develop games, and more it is developed the more it can branch out. Eventually it can lead to being a great crafter, writer, inventor you name it.

It all starts with imagination, the rest should and I do mean should always strive to build that fire. Stoke the flames of creativity and let that Steam Engine follow that railroad to your dreams, stagnate and the little pressure dollars give you will lead to your own scraping.

Also treat any legacy with respect (Disney I'm looking at you and you haven't gotten more cash from me by trying to fix what isn't broken with Star Wars, and I am also looking at Ken Penders, the man who killed Archie Sonic) you have a multiverse that has been brought up and loved, only to destroy the whole ideas that kept that series popular and loved. Anything after 2012 made for Star Wars I reject. Because it isn't Star Wars!

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Why do you think that the highest tier of sub, assuming this info is even remotely legit in the first place, wouldn't include access to all official vtt assets?

Because literally nobody does that.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

That's one possibility.

The other possibility is that you end up with Sigmarines.


View attachment 273975

Honestly if WotC had tried to take out 1.0a in court I'm pretty sure the end result would be D&D 7E being full of Sigmarine/Duardin/Orruk/Aelf-type stuff.