May Daggermaster Nerf Rumour

[renau1g]

...

 

[Herschel]

Huh, this thread went sideways in part at the urgings of a troll. But that aside it almost appears the disagreement comes down to this:

Statistical probability is what is MOST LIKELY to happen over a series of events, not what WILL happen.

The dice are there to add a random element to it rather than making it just a number crunching exercise of pre-ordained endings.

 

[Obryn]

@ obryn: no it is not always better to chose head if head is up. (only fo this single event when you have no other information) You also have to look if the person always has the same side up before he throws, and throws in a comparable way (same height etc.). If you notice that the coin lands 16/20 times with side up that was down before the throw, i would always bet on the side which was down before the throw when its my turn to bet.

Right - I was just making a point that I found kind of neat, that only applies for individual throws in isolation. Not for any frequency testing as a whole.

-O

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Jeez.... please go and read up on probabilities, averages, statistics at a most basic level before commenting on it.

no, you are misreading it:

the average means nothing, if the varance is too big or if there are other factors to be counted on.

You should read it up yourself... I don´t know what you learned at college or university, but surely not statistics.

The average means nothing if there are other factors in a small sample:

I make an extreme example (because you obviously didn´t understand the other one):

Just compare 2 players:

Mr. reliable:
His average damage is 0,95, because you know, you do exactly 1 point of damage, and you hit from 2 to 20.

AND

Mr. crit fisher:
His average damage is 50, because he does exactly 1000 damage on a crit. But he only hits at 20.

Now, lets assume both fight against a minion with 1 hp.

Now, can you tell me why average damage doesn´t tell you anything at all in this example?

Lets make it a littl bit more complex:

Lets assume the monster has 15hp, still Mr. reliable will still end most fights faster than Mr. crit fisher.
But if you fight against monsters that also do damage to you, a fight that ends at round 1 will save you a lot of trouble, but the fight where you don´t crit for 100 throws will kill you.

So maybe a team of Mr. reliable and Mr crit fisher will work best most of the time.

If Mr. Crit fisher fights against Mr. Reliable (both 15 hp) it gets even more complicated:
Mr. crit fisher will die at exactly round 15. Mr Reliable will be killed on round 20 on average (EV is 1/p, if you didn´t know --> Geometrische Verteilung)

Mr Crit fisher will lose more fight, but he has the option to flee at round 10 if it doesn´t work out well for him, he can second wind, be healed etc, which will make him win or achieve a draw all the time. Mr. reliable is dead at first contact.

When you factor in vulnerabilities Mr. reliable may get an edge: (with vulnerability 15 he will win nearly all fights), when you have resistance 1, he will always lose.

You know what is the most important thing to know about probabilities? To know when it is ok to use them and when not.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

Huh, this thread went sideways in part at the urgings of a troll. But that aside it almost appears the disagreement comes down to this:

Statistical probability is what is MOST LIKELY to happen over a series of events, not what WILL happen.

The dice are there to add a random element to it rather than making it just a number crunching exercise of pre-ordained endings.

I hope you didn´t ment me with troll:

But you are right: Rolling dice is what makes the game fun: monsters that always do average damage will let you know exactly when to retreat or heal and even if their damage output will be objectively higher, lethality rate would drop significantly.

 

[UngeheuerLich]

So Lich by your understanding of statistics...all statistics are useless. So average height of a person is uesless. Average score for a golf course ...useless. etc.etc.

Here is a link to "Volatility" on stock markets.

Volatility (finance) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Average increase is nice and good, but risk is defined by Variance (or standard deviation)

edit: Thanks for the remindder Umbran

 

[Umbran]

Folks,

"Go read up..." or "Get your facts straight..." are just other ways of saying, "You are ignorant, so shut up."

Need I remind anyone here that this is rude? Need I remind you all that Rule #1 of EN World - a rule all of you agreed to when you made your accounts, and that nobody here should have to read up or get straight - is Keep it civil?

It is fine to disagree. It is okay to point out someone's made an error. But we expect you to be kind and respectful about it. I hope that makes things clear for you going forward. Thanks for your attention.

 

[Istar]

In the end, twin strike should have been the ranger damage mechanic... but it is really off topic...

neither daggermaster, nor twin strike is inherently broken. It is just a bit better if you invest heavily n this build and a simple resist all reduces twin striking ranger damage output by quite a bit.

I though agree, that a sorcerer with daggermaster is indeed a little bit broken, as mentioned above, and at least a restriction to weapon only powers seems reasonable. A different approach would be daggermaster to require ROGUE WEAPON TALENT. Simple and effective. A multiclassed rogue or half elf can do some good things, but it will be ok for the most part....

I like that, not bad idea

 

[renau1g]

Apologies to Lich for the rudeness. Thanks Umbran & PCat.

How would you suggest than to analyze the effect of a twin striking rogue? I'm curious. I do miss how the average damage is between 17 and 200 though...

Here's the DPR analysis from the CO PC I grabbed as an example of OP'd Half-elf. You are saying that this is incorrect right? Like I mentioned, I really am interested how you would evaluate it.

[sblock=ooc]
I ran some calculation in dpr for lvl 12 :
Spoiler: Hide

I'm using two +3 Bloodiron daggers in order to maximise crit damage : +3d10 x2 extra damage, the second part is applyed at the start of your next turn.

Bonus to hit = +4 (stat) + 6 (lvl) + 4 (dagger+rogue) + 3 (weapon enh) + 1 (weap expert.) = +18
You've got +18 to hit at lvl 12, meaning +21 to hit with CA (nimble blade). Taking that a middle AC for lvl 12 is 26, that makes hit on 5+.

Hit chances :
2 miss = 16 * .25 = 4%
1 hit, 1 miss = 104 * .25 = 26%
2 hit = 169 * .25 = 42.25%
1 miss, 1 crit = 24 * .25 = 6%
1 hit, 1 crit = 78 * .25 = 19.5%
2 crit = 9 * .25 = 2.25%

Sneack attack = 3d8 + 4 , average 17.5, max 28

Damage on hit = 1d4 + 3 (weap. enh.) + 2 (weap. focus) = 1d4 + 5 (wow not so great huh?) = 7.5 average
Damage on crit = 9 + 3d10*2 = 42 average
Damage on crit with crit feats = 9 + 2d4 + 1d10 + 3d10*2 = 52.5 average

Twin strike + sneack attack average damage chart:
2 miss = 0
1 hit, 1 miss = 5 + 1d4 + 3d8 + 4 = 25
2 hits = 10 + 2d4 + 3d8 + 4 = 37.5
1 miss, 1 crit = 37 + 2d4+1d10+3d10*2 = 70 (80.5 with crit feats)
1 hit, 1 crit = 42 + 3d4 +1d10+3d10*2 = 77.5 (88)
2 crits = 46 + 4d4 + 2d10+6d10*2 = 112 (133)

I ran 4 builds dpr calc:
Without weap focus nor crit feats = 0 + 5.98 + 14.15375 + 4.08 + 14.3325 + 2.43 = 40.97 dpr
Without weap focus but with crit feats = 0 + 5.98 + 14.15375 + 4.71 + 16.38 + 2.9025 = 44.12 dpr
With weapon focus alone = 0 + 6.5 + 15.84375 + 4.2 + 15.1125 + 2.52 = 44.17 dpr
With both weap focus and crit feats = 0 + 6.5 + 15.84375 + 4.83 + 17.16 + 2.9925 = 47.32 dpr

As you can see, weapon focus alone outbreak the use of devastating critical + rogue weapon mastery: +3,20 dpr vs +3,15 dpr[/sblock]

Thanks for the link to volatility Lich I do happen to have gone for schooling for that though.

 

[Istar]

when in may is this comining out and in what publication.'

is their a may rules update or something ?