D&D 5E (More) ruminations on the future of D&D

[Tony Vargas]

There's been a cult of youthfulness in the advertising world that's finally being openly questioned. On what basis is appealing to younger people better than appealing to older people? Don't older people have more money and free time, and therefore are arguably better customers than poor, busy college students? And on what basis is "over 25" considered "old" anyway? Are advertisers all a bunch of teenagers?

The theory - and it is, ironically, an /old/ one - is that people form most of their brand preferences early in life. So, while you might very well get a lot of money from customers in their peak earning years, you're getting it on the basis of advertising and brand-building you did when they were much younger.

I guess my question is; on what basis is that a serious, serious problem for the hobby?

It's a different question from the advertising one. One obvious 'problem' is that it's indicative of lack of interest and/or low adoption by potential new players. D&D just isn't the kind of game that everyone wants to try, nor even that wins over most people who try it.

 

[Desdichado]

The theory - and it is, ironically, an /old/ one - is that people form most of their brand preferences early in life. So, while you might very well get a lot of money from customers in their peak earning years, you're getting it on the basis of advertising and brand-building you did when they were much younger.

Yeah, I've seen it referenced here and there in the Longmire discussion (curiously, I've never watched an episode of Longmire in my life. But I find the discussion about it very interesting.) I just personally doubt how much that theory is true, or how much it applies. To some people across some industries, I'm sure it is relevant. Across most people for most industries, my own experience would disincline me to believe it.

It's a different question from the advertising one. One obvious 'problem' is that it's indicative of lack of interest and/or low adoption by potential new players. D&D just isn't the kind of game that everyone wants to try, nor even that wins over most people who try it.

I don't disagree, but I don't know that marketing D&D to younger people, or saying that the hobby is in trouble if the median age of gamers isn't younger than 25 or whatever really has any intersection with that point or not, though.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Yeah, I've seen it referenced here and there in the Longmire discussion (curiously, I've never watched an episode of Longmire in my life. But I find the discussion about it very interesting.) I just personally doubt how much that theory is true, or how much it applies. To some people across some industries, I'm sure it is relevant. Across most people for most industries, my own experience would disincline me to believe it.

Another bit of common wisdom is that change has become much more rapid for decades now. It wouldn't be strange to think that 'older' folks today are, as a result, more open to changing their preferences - being responsive to marketing efforts in this context - than in the past. I think it'd go against fundamental human nature, though. We really /do/ get 'set in our ways.' Still, it could be true to an extent.

I don't disagree, but I don't know that marketing D&D to younger people, or saying that the hobby is in trouble if the median age of gamers isn't younger than 25 or whatever really has any intersection with that point or not, though.

I suppose it's not irrefutable proof that the hobby is aging, shrinking, and basically doomed, but it's an indicator. But, I do agree that marketing to younger people, specifically, isn't necessarily the solution. Making the game more appealing to new players, rather than getting younger potential players to try it, might be more successful.

It's also just possible that D&D has carved out it's little niche, and there's no way to crawl out of it.

 

[Desdichado]

It's also just possible that D&D has carved out it's little niche, and there's no way to crawl out of it.

It's also possible that D&D is like buggy whips in 1910. The market's there, but D&D needs to be a brand that's bigger than just the table top roleplaying game to stay relevant because everyone's moving to automobiles.

Or something like that.

 

[billd91]

Actually, that's a bit of received wisdom that's being openly questioned these days in the wake of the cancellation of Longmire, which was the second most successful show A&E had on. Cancelled why? Because the demographic was too old. Too old for what? Too old to spend money on the things advertisers were asking for?

There's been a cult of youthfulness in the advertising world that's finally being openly questioned. On what basis is appealing to younger people better than appealing to older people? Don't older people have more money and free time, and therefore are arguably better customers than poor, busy college students? And on what basis is "over 25" considered "old" anyway? Are advertisers all a bunch of teenagers?

With a median viewer age of 61, you'd think that Longmire might do well with advertisers considering it's catching the tail end of the baby boomers. On the other hand, over 60s are hitting the times of their lives when their incomes are starting to trail off as they retire and downsize empty nest homes. For the 25-49 demographic, prime earning and spending years are on them or still ahead. At least that's a rationale that makes sense to me.

The cancellation still sucks, though, because it was a fun show to watch.

 

[Desdichado]

With a median viewer age of 61, you'd think that Longmire might do well with advertisers considering it's catching the tail end of the baby boomers. On the other hand, over 60s are hitting the times of their lives when their incomes are starting to trail off as they retire and downsize empty nest homes. For the 25-49 demographic, prime earning and spending years are on them or still ahead. At least that's a rationale that makes sense to me.

The cancellation still sucks, though, because it was a fun show to watch.

Yeah, that's what I hear. I'll probably have to check the show out and see if its on Netflix or Amazon Prime or something.

That said, I referenced Longmire only for the reason that it's openly causing a lot of folks to question the received wisdom that being successful, but not being successful with the hip, young crowd, is bad. A&E are making themselves out to be a bunch of doofuses who are shooting themselves in the foot. Are they really? I don't really know, but it's being openly questioned. I thought the concept was a bit iffy myself, which is why I also question whether or not D&D needs to be in the business of marketing to teenagers. What's wrong with the game if it's primarily played by folks in their 30s and 40s? Why is that a problem? Maybe it's a problem in twenty or thirty years--maybe--but why is it a problem now?

 

[billd91]

Yeah, that's what I hear. I'll probably have to check the show out and see if its on Netflix or Amazon Prime or something.

That said, I referenced Longmire only for the reason that it's openly causing a lot of folks to question the received wisdom that being successful, but not being successful with the hip, young crowd, is bad. A&E are making themselves out to be a bunch of doofuses who are shooting themselves in the foot. Are they really? I don't really know, but it's being openly questioned. I thought the concept was a bit iffy myself, which is why I also question whether or not D&D needs to be in the business of marketing to teenagers. What's wrong with the game if it's primarily played by folks in their 30s and 40s? Why is that a problem? Maybe it's a problem in twenty or thirty years--maybe--but why is it a problem now?

I tend to chalk it up to differences between what a free market can theoretically produce (product diversity that could satisfy any segment of the market) and what it actually does produce (pretty much everybody trying to chase the same high profile, high profit slice of the pie). Not enough people thinking about competition like John Nash, I guess.

 

[Mistwell]

Why? The booming boardgame hobby is fueled by the 25 to 40 year old crowd, people who have no problem dropping $300 or more annually on a hobby. Hipsters, educated couples, urban singles, young professionals with kids. The RPG industry would kill to have those 'problematic' demographics. WotC's devs have explicitly cited the boardgame boom and questioned why D&D hasn't been able to see the same growth. I'm sure they know (since they have some very successful boardgames themselves) that the enormous growth in hobby boardgaming in the last decade has not been fueled by 12-20 year olds.

And if the D&D market really is 70% 25 and under, why all the references in the 5E books to Keep in the Borderlands, the 1E PHB, the Giant series, etc? Whey the skinning of the 4E beginner's set to look like Mentzner Basic? Why, after the polling of 100,000+ playtesters, did WotC keep hoary old tropes from TSR D&D?

Same reason there is a new Star Wars moving coming out. Same reason Marvel movies are booming right now based on material from 25-30 years ago often. Same reason we have Transformers and Ninja Turtles and all these other remakes of stuff from decades ago. Because the rumor and legend and myth and brand name of those things has the power to carry down to young people today. New D&D players often have heard of Keep on the Borderlands. They heard it mentioned in Wil Weaton's podcast, or Felcia Day mentioned it, or it got a drop-in mention on Big Bang Theory or Community. Or it got an inside joke in a video game, or a mention in an article or a book, or on the Internet like this thread. All the different ways we communicate myth to the next generation, apply for D&D as well. There is power in the brand, and the brand is "named-things" such as characters and adventures and settings and stories from the past that get mentioned again and again.

 

[Parmandur]

Speaking as someone under thirty, who has been playing for a decade, I have ever played ANY of those modules published back in the day. My college group was into home brew, so I never played a prewritten adventure till KotSF. But between dndclassics and 5E's breezy nature, I'm personally excited to try them for the first time. And Mearls has said that during the play test, they got enthusiastic response to Keep on the Borderland by new players.

 

[Desdichado]

Speaking as someone under thirty, who has been playing for a decade, I have ever played ANY of those modules published back in the day. My college group was into home brew, so I never played a prewritten adventure till KotSF. But between dndclassics and 5E's breezy nature, I'm personally excited to try them for the first time. And Mearls has said that during the play test, they got enthusiastic response to Keep on the Borderland by new players.

My go-to offer, if we ever find ourselves unable to meet our regular Star Wars campaign but still want to get together, is that I'll run a mini-campaign of Keep on the Borderlands and Isle of Dread with the actual B/X rules.

Although the modules sound kinda fun, I'm actually not that thrilled to revisit the B/X rules. When I was re-reading them a few months ago, they were worse than I remembered.