D&D 5E (2024) Motley Fool Prediction: New Dungeons & Dragons Edition Won't Help Hasbro Much

[Stormonu]

D&D was growing (slowly) for some time, with COVID giving it a big bump (and recognition via Stranger Things), but I think that boom is over and though I expect a small bump with the books releases, I think we'll D&D popularity on a decline. Crossing my fingers it will level off and we'll continue to get books & such for years but I think we're past the heyday.

 

[KYRON45]

Why isn’t D&D an Olympic sport?

 

[FrogReaver]

the monthly sales today are higher than they were when 2014 was released,

According to whom? That’s data I don’t think we have. And are you talking just PHB sales or all 5e books?

we had several years of strong steady growth in between. So just keeping on selling the 2014 books in 2024 (year) already outsells their 2014 (year) numbers.

Where do you get this info?

Add to that all the people that will be upgrading from their 2014 books and there is no way that the 2024 books won’t outsell the 2014 (year) sales

Everyone was updating their books in 2014 as well. Not sure that’s a pro for 2024.

 

[Oofta]

Why isn’t D&D an Olympic sport?

If this qualifies, I don't see why not.

 

[Corinnguard]

Why isn’t D&D an Olympic sport?

Sports, plural. There are quite a number of things in D&D that could be made into a sport. Both mundane and magical.

The Magilympics, where spellcasting is a sport.

 

[borringman]

yes, Covid might have extended the trajectory by a year or so, but it did not really cause the interest, by then D&D was already huge. It only helped to sustain the already existing momentum

Right. But I don't think you realize how utterly mind-blowing that is, to "sustain the already existing momentum".

Games have momentum like a pile of bricks. Unless it's obscure (which, among TTRPGs, D&D is by far the least qualified), the sales peak of a new game is heavily front-loaded -- everyone rushes to buy new thing, at which point mostly everyone has new thing, and you generally don't buy durable goods twice. Conventional wisdom is that momentum is impossible to sustain, which is why D&D traditionally follows a "splat, bloat, reset" lifecycle. (I don't like it, but they basically have to do that to stay solvent.) TSR's cycle was about a decade, and they almost went under twice. WotC picked them up, and since then released either a major revision or a completely new version every 3-6 years -- until 5th Edition.

Whatever sustaining of "already existing momentum" D&D saw over the past decade was staggering and unprecedented in its history, and well beyond what can be chalked up to Hasbro being a savvy company.

 

[Bacon Bits]

• Despite the initial success, history suggests the new edition won't have a huge impact on Hasbro's revenues...or profits.

Of course it won't. D&D -- especially the TTRPG -- is a small brand, and D&D is overwhelmingly large within it's market space. A new edition is unlikely to attract people away from other games, and TTRPGs as a whole aren't a very popular hobby. They're already the biggest fish in a rather small pond.

 

[occam]

Right. But I don't think you realize how utterly mind-blowing that is, to "sustain the already existing momentum".

Games have momentum like a pile of bricks.

Just popping in to note that a pile of bricks has quite substantial momentum. I certainly wouldn't want to be in the way of a flying pile of bricks, or have to move a stationary pile of bricks, for that matter.

Maybe a pile of feathers...?

 

[Corinnguard]

Maybe a pile of feathers...?

It depends on what kind of feathers are being thrown about.

 

[mamba]

According to whom? That’s data I don’t think we have. And are you talking just PHB sales or all 5e books?

we only really have all books, but I consider that a measure of PHBs as well. People do not suddenly buy a lot more adventures if there are not also a lot more players

Where do you get this info?

that is the conclusion of the increased sales

Everyone was updating their books in 2014 as well. Not sure that’s a pro for 2024.

how many players were there back then, how many are there now? I’d say it is at least double the player base now, and that is very conservative, of 4e, 3e and PF1 combined then vs 5e today. 4e sold maybe 10% of the PHBs 5e has sold…