Chaosmancer
Legend
To assume something in a non-hypothetical context, and it was not presented by you as hypothetical, means to move forward as if that thing were definitely the case. To posit something means to suggest that it could be the case/is a plausible idea.
Okay, I think I get the confusion here. Yes, assuming means that you "go forward as if it were true" but that by definition means that you don't know if it is true. But, you rarely assume something that is completely implausible, you can, but it is usually pretty clearly stated as being implausible and a hypothetical.
To even posit something you have to put forth that it could be true, which mean that you have to proceed with the idea as though it were true. I have heard it used in the same manner as "assume" such as "Let us posit a world where-" statements.
So, you are drawing a hard line, where I have typically seen and drawn a soft line.
2 things.
First; I didn’t say they avoid disasters. I said they avoid becoming the focus of realms shaking events, wars, etc.
Right, but many of those "realm shaking events" are disasters. The endless winter of Rime of the Frost Maiden. The Giant attacks because of a Divine Decree (remember, many natural disasters were assumed to be because of the gods being angered. Amon's children causing a ruckus because they angered him is 100% in that vein). The summoning of Demon Lords into the world, or the plunging of an entire city into the Hells.
This is my point. Many adventures require and start with a disaster, so how do you avoid becoming the focus of a disaster? Which to the answer you gave...
Second…bro they’re literally lucky. Their percentage chance to fail is reduced by 5% just from taking the 1 on the d20 effectively off the table, and their chances of success are increased by having a second roll 1/20 times they try to do anything, have to make a save, etc.
So…yeah, it’s likely that they’ve had fewer major plagues, misstepped into fewer armed conflicts, failed less to talk their way out of conflicts, been in the path of destruction less, etc.
It’s completely in keeping with their lore and mechanics.
This is why I hate the halfling Luck in the lore.
Why were no halflings seriously involved in Acerak's plan? Because they are Lucky.
Why were no halfling villages targets of rampaging giants? Because they are Lucky.
Why has no army ever marched through their lands? Because they are Lucky.
Was the limited number of halflings living in Icewind Dale because of their luck? Has no one ever performed a ritual of evil magic near a halfling village because of their luck?
And it frankly gets absurd quickly if you allow it to spiral out. Because of Halfling luck they are never in the area of a major disaster. Then do we assume that the disaster being resolved before it reaches halfling lands is also because of their luck? Is Baldur's Gate a massively successful trading hub, drawing all of these evils and events and disasters because halfling luck makes it so Baldur's Gate gets hit with them and resolves the problem before it can harm halflings?
This is all just narrative annoyance, but much like Time Travel I find overreliance on "the Power of Luck" to spiral out into the ridiculous pretty quickly, and if you want to say that nothing bad ever happens to halflings because they are lucky... then that power has to be manipulating the gods themselves to guide the world in a way to protect halflings. It is just too much.