Dragonblade
Adventurer
This will be a long and rambling post, so I apologize. Based on a number of allusions made to it in the DDXP seminars and some of the playtest reports, I have a guess as to the core mechanic of 5e. And the more I think about it the more I like it. Here's why:
I believe it will be a d20 based opposed roll system focused on stats. Except instead of the +1 for every two points above 10, I think for every point above 10, you will get +1 to your roll. Thus the designer's comment about a races and classes getting a +1 to your stat makes more sense to me.
Another way to look at things is a STR of 16 means you are essentially taking 10 on a STR check with a +6 bonus. So now designer comments on comparing your STR to the break DC of a door and letting you break it without bothering to roll, or letting a guy with STR 15 automatically succeed on jumping a pit, make more sense. Your stat score is for all intents and purposes the same as a passive score in 4e parlance.
Let's say we want to make a fighter and lets say we have a STR of 16. By default that gives him a +6 to attack things using STR. Let's say as part of the Fighter's starting package of abilities he specializes in axes. This gives him say a +2 when using axes. So when wielding an axe, he has +8 to hit. Perhaps there is a feat or something that might bump it up to +9.
+9 seems like a lot, but only in a vacuum. Lets consider the system will be designed to work best with opposed rolls. Opposed d20 rolls are very tolerant of large disparate bonuses. Let's say our fighter fights an orc with chainmail, well the orc gets to roll d20 +5 for its defense. So our fighter has a bit of an edge, but its not out of control. Its fast and easy and adds more drama than a roll vs. a static defense. And you can control HP and your chosen healing module (surges, no surges, etc.) to act as your grittiness dial.
Ok, so you see some number inflation and are concerned about it? I wouldn't be. While the initial number at level 1 may seem large, its balanced against the threats you would face, plus over the long run the larger upfront bonus quickly evens out. Also, the larger bonus upfront acts as a kind of buffer against excess swinginess. Lets compare this hypothetical 5e fighter to one from say 3e and 4e.
Our 3e fighter has the same STR, but also has a BAB and also has weapon focus. So he starts with a +5 to hit. I'm sure I could squeeze another bonus out of that somewhere so let's say +6. Our 4e fighter has no BAB, but he has a +2 or +3 proficiency bonus with his weapon, plus expertise feats and so on. So that puts him up around +7 or +8 at level 1. So it seems like the 5e guy is better, but given that he has to roll against a defender rolling d20, the bonus disparity he may seem to have is mathematically lessened.
So now lets look at this over the long run. Let's say 5e gives a +1 level bonus every three levels, and bonuses are kept under control. For comparison sake, we won't include other feats, magic items, or stat increases.
At level 5, our 5e fighter would be +10. Our 3e fighter would be +10 as well. And our 4e fighter would be +10 as well. Hmm, interesting. Didn't take long to catch up, did it?
At level 10, our 5e fighter is now +12. Our 3e fighter is now +15, and our 4e fighter is now +13.
At level 20, our 5e fighter is now +15, our 3e fighter is now +26, and our 4e fighter is now +19.
So even though the 5e fighter started out with a bigger bonus, he has far less bonus creep. At level 20, he has the same bonus the 3e fighter had at level 10! And thats not counting all the other addons in those editions that 5e can keep under tighter control. Expected magic items for one. Let's now look at this in another way.
Let's say our level 20 5e fighter gets attacked by an orc warrior in chainmail. Well, so we roll d20 +15 vs. the orcs defense of d20 +5. Things are definitely stacked in our hero's favor. He is level 20 and the orc is probably level 1, but you know, that orc isn't just something he can completely ignore either. The orc is actually a threat. A relatively minor threat, but a threat nevertheless.
But if our level 20 3e PC fought that orc, he can only miss on a 1. The orc is pretty much no threat at all. The same thing largely would hold true for 4e as well. Some people find this a feature. I find it a bug, but its easy to switch over to a static AC and play it more 3e or 4e style. If you do that then our 5e fighter now has +15 vs. a static AC of 15. Hmm, can't miss except on a 1. Now you are playing 3e/4e again. Its simple and elegant to switch. Even mid game if you wanted to!
There are other cool things about this system as well. So you are worried about stat dumping? I'm not. A PC could theoretically dump a stat, but due to the opposed roll system, the bonus disparity effect is lessened and there are diminising returns to min/maxing.
The statistical hit you take from lowering one stat, to further increase one that is already high quickly outweighs the benefit. Say you have a STR 16 and a WIS 10. Mathematically speaking you are worse off overall by going to WIS 9 and STR 17. The value gained by rolling d20 +7 instead of d20 +6 is less than the drawback of going from d20 to d20 -1 for WIS checks and saves.
Dumping a stat makes you far far more vulnerable to a spell that targets one of your dump stats. There is less incentive to try to get that 18 STR, if its going to leave you with a CHA of 8. A -2 penalty to all your charm saves? You'll get to roll that massive attack bonus all right. Against your allies because the DM's monster dominated you.
Because bonuses and saves are so transparent, its much easier to spot outliers and keep them in check. Powergamers have a self-correcting incentive not to unbalance their PC too much. Any point buy system used could always make higher and higher stats prohibitively expensive as well.
Some other things I like:
More monsters viable across more levels of play as I demonstrated above. What if the orc in our previous example was level 10 orc champion. His base AC is now +8 and orc champion could be a template that adds +2 more. So now its a battle of d20 +15 to hit d20 +10. Again, our hero has the advantage as he should being 10 levels higher, but the game doesn't break down. The orc is a decent opponent. In 3e and 4e, an opponent ten levels different from you is not a viable opponent.
Easy conversion is another. Want more of a 4e feel to your game? Sure, just take the higher of your WIS or CHA. Now you have a static 4e style Will Defense. Want to play 3e style? Your Wis bonus simply becomes your Will save.
Skills are open ended allowing for a variety of custom bonuses. If in your character's backstory, you grew up hiking with your parents, then your PC may get a +2 to climb checks. So whenever he rolls a STR check to climb, he would add that +2 to the +6 he already got from base STR. Simple and easy.
Your level 5 wizard with INT 16 casts fireball and rolls d20. Maybe he specialized in fire magic in his PC's background so the DM gives him a +2 to fire spells (see the beauty in that open ended skill system again? I do.) Now he has a +8 to roll his fireball against the monsters in the room. They roll d20 + their DEX with any mods that apply. You could customize for your game whether everyone rolls against everyone, or make either the attacker or the defender Take 10 to save time (i.e. 3e style or 4e style casting). I like it.
Dice rolling keeps players engaged. My principal opposition to save or lose effects, is failing a roll and sitting out and watching my friends play. Part of that concern is somewhat alleviated in a system where every round I'm making defense rolls and attack rolls, and spell saving throw rolls, etc.
What about speed of play with all those rolls? Well, the best example I can think of is playing Palladium Fantasy or M&M 3e. Both d20 games that I play using opposed rolls. Both games are fast. I haven't played Palladium in years. Its an old school D&D clone (though I use the term clone loosely here) that uses an opposed roll d20 based system. But I've always thought it had an old school feel to it, and despite some clunkiness here and there, the game does play crazy fast and uses an old school narrative combat system. I don't think speed will be an issue as long as 3e style iterative attacks are gone. Besides it ridiculously easy to just have either attacker or defender simply take 10 and you immediately get back to a static DC. Though by doing so you lose some of the benefits gained by opposed rolls keeping disparate bonuses in check.
Monte Cook's L&L article about only taking one action a round makes much more sense to me now in the absence of a tactical grid based system. Movement in most cases is free, and a complex Standard, Move, Swift action system isn't really needed. For example, "I leap over the table and attack!" would be one action in play. Or a Rogue might say, "While they are fighting, I run over and grab the idol off the altar!" again, all one action. The DM might respond to the Rogue player by saying. "Ok, one of the dark cultists swings at you with his mace to stop you! Roll your defense!" There is a loose give and take in combat. It definitely feels old school to me. And as a 4e fan who started with 1e, I mean that in a good way.
One last concern might be people who want smaller bonuses across the board. You could do that. But rolling say d20 +2 psychologically feels like you have less impact on the game. That your bonus is almost superfluous in the face of a random roll. It makes things feel swingier regardless of whether you are using static DC or opposed rolls. Having a higher bonus upfront but then controlling increases is a better solution, IMO. Players feel like their bonus is meaningful.
Anyway, I may be wrong, and this post certainly doesn't address all the possible corner cases or concerns that people might have. We don't know what the actual class mechanics will look like and this is just a theory. I could be totally wrong. But I like the tantalizing possibilities such a system offers, especially in terms of customizing the game to feel differently for different groups.
Heck, I can even see the possibility of conversion charts to easily play other edition adventures and possibly even convert characters from another edition into a 5e game depending on what customization modules a 5e DM uses.
I believe it will be a d20 based opposed roll system focused on stats. Except instead of the +1 for every two points above 10, I think for every point above 10, you will get +1 to your roll. Thus the designer's comment about a races and classes getting a +1 to your stat makes more sense to me.
Another way to look at things is a STR of 16 means you are essentially taking 10 on a STR check with a +6 bonus. So now designer comments on comparing your STR to the break DC of a door and letting you break it without bothering to roll, or letting a guy with STR 15 automatically succeed on jumping a pit, make more sense. Your stat score is for all intents and purposes the same as a passive score in 4e parlance.
Let's say we want to make a fighter and lets say we have a STR of 16. By default that gives him a +6 to attack things using STR. Let's say as part of the Fighter's starting package of abilities he specializes in axes. This gives him say a +2 when using axes. So when wielding an axe, he has +8 to hit. Perhaps there is a feat or something that might bump it up to +9.
+9 seems like a lot, but only in a vacuum. Lets consider the system will be designed to work best with opposed rolls. Opposed d20 rolls are very tolerant of large disparate bonuses. Let's say our fighter fights an orc with chainmail, well the orc gets to roll d20 +5 for its defense. So our fighter has a bit of an edge, but its not out of control. Its fast and easy and adds more drama than a roll vs. a static defense. And you can control HP and your chosen healing module (surges, no surges, etc.) to act as your grittiness dial.
Ok, so you see some number inflation and are concerned about it? I wouldn't be. While the initial number at level 1 may seem large, its balanced against the threats you would face, plus over the long run the larger upfront bonus quickly evens out. Also, the larger bonus upfront acts as a kind of buffer against excess swinginess. Lets compare this hypothetical 5e fighter to one from say 3e and 4e.
Our 3e fighter has the same STR, but also has a BAB and also has weapon focus. So he starts with a +5 to hit. I'm sure I could squeeze another bonus out of that somewhere so let's say +6. Our 4e fighter has no BAB, but he has a +2 or +3 proficiency bonus with his weapon, plus expertise feats and so on. So that puts him up around +7 or +8 at level 1. So it seems like the 5e guy is better, but given that he has to roll against a defender rolling d20, the bonus disparity he may seem to have is mathematically lessened.
So now lets look at this over the long run. Let's say 5e gives a +1 level bonus every three levels, and bonuses are kept under control. For comparison sake, we won't include other feats, magic items, or stat increases.
At level 5, our 5e fighter would be +10. Our 3e fighter would be +10 as well. And our 4e fighter would be +10 as well. Hmm, interesting. Didn't take long to catch up, did it?
At level 10, our 5e fighter is now +12. Our 3e fighter is now +15, and our 4e fighter is now +13.
At level 20, our 5e fighter is now +15, our 3e fighter is now +26, and our 4e fighter is now +19.
So even though the 5e fighter started out with a bigger bonus, he has far less bonus creep. At level 20, he has the same bonus the 3e fighter had at level 10! And thats not counting all the other addons in those editions that 5e can keep under tighter control. Expected magic items for one. Let's now look at this in another way.
Let's say our level 20 5e fighter gets attacked by an orc warrior in chainmail. Well, so we roll d20 +15 vs. the orcs defense of d20 +5. Things are definitely stacked in our hero's favor. He is level 20 and the orc is probably level 1, but you know, that orc isn't just something he can completely ignore either. The orc is actually a threat. A relatively minor threat, but a threat nevertheless.
But if our level 20 3e PC fought that orc, he can only miss on a 1. The orc is pretty much no threat at all. The same thing largely would hold true for 4e as well. Some people find this a feature. I find it a bug, but its easy to switch over to a static AC and play it more 3e or 4e style. If you do that then our 5e fighter now has +15 vs. a static AC of 15. Hmm, can't miss except on a 1. Now you are playing 3e/4e again. Its simple and elegant to switch. Even mid game if you wanted to!
There are other cool things about this system as well. So you are worried about stat dumping? I'm not. A PC could theoretically dump a stat, but due to the opposed roll system, the bonus disparity effect is lessened and there are diminising returns to min/maxing.
The statistical hit you take from lowering one stat, to further increase one that is already high quickly outweighs the benefit. Say you have a STR 16 and a WIS 10. Mathematically speaking you are worse off overall by going to WIS 9 and STR 17. The value gained by rolling d20 +7 instead of d20 +6 is less than the drawback of going from d20 to d20 -1 for WIS checks and saves.
Dumping a stat makes you far far more vulnerable to a spell that targets one of your dump stats. There is less incentive to try to get that 18 STR, if its going to leave you with a CHA of 8. A -2 penalty to all your charm saves? You'll get to roll that massive attack bonus all right. Against your allies because the DM's monster dominated you.

Because bonuses and saves are so transparent, its much easier to spot outliers and keep them in check. Powergamers have a self-correcting incentive not to unbalance their PC too much. Any point buy system used could always make higher and higher stats prohibitively expensive as well.
Some other things I like:
More monsters viable across more levels of play as I demonstrated above. What if the orc in our previous example was level 10 orc champion. His base AC is now +8 and orc champion could be a template that adds +2 more. So now its a battle of d20 +15 to hit d20 +10. Again, our hero has the advantage as he should being 10 levels higher, but the game doesn't break down. The orc is a decent opponent. In 3e and 4e, an opponent ten levels different from you is not a viable opponent.
Easy conversion is another. Want more of a 4e feel to your game? Sure, just take the higher of your WIS or CHA. Now you have a static 4e style Will Defense. Want to play 3e style? Your Wis bonus simply becomes your Will save.
Skills are open ended allowing for a variety of custom bonuses. If in your character's backstory, you grew up hiking with your parents, then your PC may get a +2 to climb checks. So whenever he rolls a STR check to climb, he would add that +2 to the +6 he already got from base STR. Simple and easy.
Your level 5 wizard with INT 16 casts fireball and rolls d20. Maybe he specialized in fire magic in his PC's background so the DM gives him a +2 to fire spells (see the beauty in that open ended skill system again? I do.) Now he has a +8 to roll his fireball against the monsters in the room. They roll d20 + their DEX with any mods that apply. You could customize for your game whether everyone rolls against everyone, or make either the attacker or the defender Take 10 to save time (i.e. 3e style or 4e style casting). I like it.
Dice rolling keeps players engaged. My principal opposition to save or lose effects, is failing a roll and sitting out and watching my friends play. Part of that concern is somewhat alleviated in a system where every round I'm making defense rolls and attack rolls, and spell saving throw rolls, etc.
What about speed of play with all those rolls? Well, the best example I can think of is playing Palladium Fantasy or M&M 3e. Both d20 games that I play using opposed rolls. Both games are fast. I haven't played Palladium in years. Its an old school D&D clone (though I use the term clone loosely here) that uses an opposed roll d20 based system. But I've always thought it had an old school feel to it, and despite some clunkiness here and there, the game does play crazy fast and uses an old school narrative combat system. I don't think speed will be an issue as long as 3e style iterative attacks are gone. Besides it ridiculously easy to just have either attacker or defender simply take 10 and you immediately get back to a static DC. Though by doing so you lose some of the benefits gained by opposed rolls keeping disparate bonuses in check.
Monte Cook's L&L article about only taking one action a round makes much more sense to me now in the absence of a tactical grid based system. Movement in most cases is free, and a complex Standard, Move, Swift action system isn't really needed. For example, "I leap over the table and attack!" would be one action in play. Or a Rogue might say, "While they are fighting, I run over and grab the idol off the altar!" again, all one action. The DM might respond to the Rogue player by saying. "Ok, one of the dark cultists swings at you with his mace to stop you! Roll your defense!" There is a loose give and take in combat. It definitely feels old school to me. And as a 4e fan who started with 1e, I mean that in a good way.

One last concern might be people who want smaller bonuses across the board. You could do that. But rolling say d20 +2 psychologically feels like you have less impact on the game. That your bonus is almost superfluous in the face of a random roll. It makes things feel swingier regardless of whether you are using static DC or opposed rolls. Having a higher bonus upfront but then controlling increases is a better solution, IMO. Players feel like their bonus is meaningful.
Anyway, I may be wrong, and this post certainly doesn't address all the possible corner cases or concerns that people might have. We don't know what the actual class mechanics will look like and this is just a theory. I could be totally wrong. But I like the tantalizing possibilities such a system offers, especially in terms of customizing the game to feel differently for different groups.
Heck, I can even see the possibility of conversion charts to easily play other edition adventures and possibly even convert characters from another edition into a 5e game depending on what customization modules a 5e DM uses.
