Ahnehnois
First Post
Confusion is kind of a bad example; you still have a 20% chance of acting normally (and another chance of attacking randomly, which may help or hurt) and still have your defenses. There's Hold Person, which could be lethal but which allows another save each round. Most of the nastier effects (flesh to stone, slay living) are tied to fort saves. Even so, at this level many of these effects are subject to being removed, situational bonuses abound, and SR is even in play at this point.My gut analysis is a bit different. Eg use Confusion (perhaps Heightened to 5th level to increase the DC) and have a 60% chance of hitting the rogue who then has an 80% chance of being taken out, plus some (lesser) chance of hitting the other PCs - even if those chances are only 20% (ie save on a 5+) that would be only a 5% chance or so of doing nothing, assuming 3 targets in addition to the rogue. Which to me looks pretty strong.
That being said, if you look at what a solid martial character can do, his chance of disabling or killing the weakest target isn't much worse. I'm of the mind that there should be more disabling effects, but even in our level 10 example, a full attack from a decent attacker can kill opponents in 1 round. A high-damage character (say a barbarian with a x3 crit weapon) can very realistically kill a spellcaster in one hit.
And there are a lot of variables as to how much time and space is available and how much the characters know about each other's strengths and weaknesses and what their abilities are, so it's hard to make blanket conclusions, but I often find that the chance of save-based effects is barely high enough to allow spellcasters to remain competitive in a fight.