Ydars said:
I want to re-state something that I really really worry about; I DON'T believe that WoTC are as robust as most people assume. Sure they are a big company, but when you have to invest 7 figures in developing a product like 4E, the success you need to justify that is HUGE.
It really isn't all that hard to accumulate 7 figures in development costs. I don't know what the pay rate for RPG designers is, but just imagine $50,000/year in salary. It would then take 20 people, working for a year, to add up to 7 figures.
Now keep in mind that we have designers, marketing folks, development of DDI & Gleemax, and it starts to look real easy to add up to 7+ figures.
My point isn't to disagree with your assertion that these costs might be very significant to WotC. I just want to keep it in perspective to some degree. Individually, 7 figures is a big number to most people. But as far as expenses on a team go, it can add up surprisingly quickly. It is even possible that the development costs are not extraordinarily high compared to the normal operating costs.
The problem, however, is that those developers were working on a product line that was not being fed with robust sales as the announcement of 4.0 might have singificantly dried up the revenue stream. As I said, I'm not trying to make light of the costs, just trying to keep it in perspective compared to operating costs.
I really worry that the lack of GSL (or this poison pill clause in the GSL) will have the same net effect on conversion of gamers to 4E; it will discourage them from switching. I think this will be a MUCH more serious problem than most people believe.
This is a very real danger for the types of gamers posting in a thread such as this.
The question is whether the market share of people that significantly cares about these types of decisions is substantial enough for WotC to be concerned.
Couple this with the lack of support from 3 party publishers for 4E and a virtual guarantee that many of them will continue to support 3.5E and I think we have very dangerous situation; a splintering of the player base for 4E such that 3.5E or 3.75E will be a very serious threat. I agree that in the PAST, competitors were minor. NOW WoTC have contrived to set their competitors up very nicely. I predicted this, in my thread on GSL and why you should care. Since then, WoTC have done even more to make what I said true.
If 4E is designed to bring in new gamers, then I submit that this will take TIME. If the old guard of gamers, like people on this board, do not switch or don't switch in sufficient numbers, then there could be problems. And remember, 4E is probably driven by sales of DDI; not by books alone. If that fails, as it could well, I wonder how much time 4E has before the people at Hasbro start to think about cutting their losses? Don't think this is impossible; D&D is a SMALL product to them. The key is to consider how much of the total investment in 4E is investment in DDI etc. If it is a significant proportion of the investment then it is even more likely to cause problems.
I do agree that it will take time to bring in new blood. I also believe there is significant exposure for WotC if they are unable to encourage adoption of 4.0 quickly. Especially given the current trend in the economy, there may be a lot at stake.
It does look like WotC is working toward establishing a revenue model using DDI. Their efforts are actually commendable in this regard. I hope they are able to win over the demographic they are targetting. I do have to wonder how many DDI subscribers they need to generate a healthy cashflow. Of course, if DDI is successful, WotC may have challenges scaling server infrastructure. I hope WotC is prepared for success as well.
Now I know many people will think I am crazy for saying this, but then many of the same people said this when I started the thread about "No GSL and why you should care."
I would just like to point out that most of what I said in that thread is now accepted; because of things that people like Orcus have now confirmed. I postulated a turf war in WoTC over open gaming; most people said I was mad. Now look back over the last page of this thread; most people NOW seem to agree that Scott and Linae are fighting for open gaming against "forces unknown" within WoTC. I also said that WoTC were thinking of canning the GSL; and this has subdequently emerged as likely TRUE.
If you look now, you can just see it in the language WoTC are using; they are SCARED! If you look at the way they are responding to us; something has them spooked. Whilst I like to see a company adapting to its customers, there is something else here......................................
I hope I am wrong but something about all the official stuff I am hearing from WoTC via this site is unsettling. They are THREATENED by something. THEY believe that 4E is in danger for some reason.
I don't think it is really danger for 4E. WotC needs a quick shot of revenue while DDI kicks off and the new blood is brought into the market. I think there are risks of cutbacks and layoffs if the release doesn't generate heavy sales. But strictly speaking, it isn't really an issue of 4 being in danger.
I just hope they realise the solution; remove the poison pill, get 3PPs on board and take the wind out of 3.5E/3.75E sails by making 4E SO attrractive to prospective publishers that they will switch and take away the competition. At the moment, WoTCs response is negative and reactive and is only deepening their problems..............
That is certainly an opinion that I share. Though it is simply an opinion.
But to give some perspective on how some people might think, I will share my current stance.
The campaign I currently play in will almost certainly not move to 4.0. We are deeply involved in the current campaign and our characters are 20th level. There is no reason for us to try to convert. Especially since the characters include a Bard (me), a Druid, a Monk, a Ranger and a Wizard. Because of the way WotC is releasing the game, some of the characters are practically unconvertable at launch. Now given that we have invested roughly 7 years into this campaign, we aren't going to abandon it just to adopt 4.0 when it is released.
I run a second campaign with another group of players. I might be willing to convert that campaign to 4.0, but I certainly don't need to convert. This campaign has more players and a few of them may be interested in picking up the books when they are released. But unless I decide to convert the campaign, it just won't happen.
So will I be buying the books at release? Well, that kind of depends. If there is a poison pill provision, then there will be a limited time for me to pick up OGL material from some companies. Even as it is, the GSL seems to dictate that third party publishers won't be able to release product until October. In all likelihood, I will wait until at least the 1st third party products make it to market before I purchase any 4.0 material. Given that the publishers have six months to update or discontinue d20 product, I am more likely to be waiting until 2009 before I buy 4.0 material.
Mind you, I am not arguing that WotC isn't being generous with the 6 months to get rid of d20 material, I'm just pointing out that WotC is creating a motivation for me to direct my gaming dollars toward that product before it disappears.
Without a poison pill, I am much more likely to buy the 4.0 books when they are released. I won't have pressure to spend my money on material I want to acquire before it goes away permanently. At least, not as much pressure.
So, the way the GSL has been handled will probably result in the opposite of what WotC was hoping, at least in regards to me specifically. If enough people make decisions in a similar manner, WotC might see less sales than they hoped for.
That could be bad for WotC, and in like manner, it could hurt the market in general. I hope WotC is successful. But if there is a true poison pill aspect of the GSL, WotC probably won't see very much money from me. As a consumer, my wallet will have to speak for me where my words have been ineffective.
