IanB said:
What I'm not sure of is why the 'orb spells are overpowered' side (I'm sort of waffling between both camps myself) continually seems to dismiss ranged touch attacks as being autohits.
They're not even close to that! I've played a warlock of significant level who had spent quite a few resources on making his ranged touch attacks better, and I still missed noticeably often. A wizard/sorcerer is almost certainly going to be less accurate with their ranged touch attacks.
I think one has to look at the math, just like always.
It is not unreasonable for a Wizard or Sorcerer to have a starting Dex of 14. Let's go with that. Let's assume that he is willing to devote a few feats to it, but not ability score points. Let's look at what his chances are to hit touch AC 10 and touch AC 15 (the range where an Orb is a proper selection and btw, the average touch AC and the high end touch AC of the vast majority of opponents). Let's assume that he gains a +2 Dex item at level 5, a +4 Dex item at level 10, and a +6 Dex item at level 15 (we'll ignore Cat's Grace or other attack boost spells, although that is a viable option at lower levels instead of a Dex boost item). And let's say that he is human (extra feat at first level).
01 70% 45% Point Blank Shot
02 75% 50%
03 75% 50% Precise Shot
04 80% 55%
05 85% 60%
06 90% 65%
07 90% 65%
08 95% 70%
09 95% 70%
10 95% 80%
11 95% 80%
12 95% 85%
13 95% 85%
14 95% 90%
15 95% 95%
16 95% 95%
17 95% 95%
18 95% 95%
19 95% 95%
20 95% 95%
This is with a single item (or spell) and two feats (the second one in order to fire into combat). No special PrC abilities, no additional magic, etc.
Sure, his chances against Rogues and Monks will be somewhat less, but not against 90+% of opponents (Monsters and non-light armor opponents).
Another factor is that PCs run into larger creatures as they get higher levels, so sometimes, the touch AC of opponents actually decreases at higher levels.
Now, start throwing Bless or Prayer or Inspire Courage or Haste, or a boatload of other ways to improve to hit. Or make him an Elf or a Halfling. Throw in some more feats or PrC special abilities. Granted, a few opponents might have boost spells up that improve their touch AC, but the vast majority typically do not.
The math is really against your position on this. Most opponents have touch AC 14 or less. In the MM, the range of AC is -1 to 29, the average is 10.5, and 93+% of the creatures have touch AC 14 or less.
10.5 Average touch AC for creatures in the MM. It really is virtually auto-hit (i.e. 95% chance) by 10th level for the vast majority of opponents and a real high chance to hit even before then.
Apples and Oranges when compared to Evocation spells with Reflex saves. Plus, the caster can purposely pick feats, spells, items, and special abiliites to boost his effectiveness a lot more ways than ways to improve spell DC for Reflex save spells.
Plus, range touch spells that do damage can sometimes (4.5% to 4.75%) do double damage as opposed to reflex save spells that never do double damage and sometimes do half damage.
Quite frankly, Orb spells would be extremely potent (one may even say borderline broken since two of them can take out most near level opponents) even if they did have SR. Without SR and especially without SR and with metamagic, they are through the roof.