D&D 4E Paizo and 4e.

I'm sure you have a much better and in-depth overview of the whole business, but i'm pretty sure of two things.

1) If Necromancer produces a 32 page adventure for 4E first thing, it will be everything BUT a crappy product.

2) After Crucible of Freya, Tomb of Abysthor and Bard's Gate, I can safely say that the only color I need in one of your products is on the cover, the rest of the product can be in b&w and still look great. :D

Just in case you were wondering if there were still some fans of b&w adventures out there, you definitely produced some great ones. :)
 

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It is possible to rush a product to market in four months, but that's the absolute minimum due to the solicitation deadlines from the major hobby distributors. If you "short solicit" a product inside that time window, it does not appear in the printed catalogs that are sent to stores. Basically, if people ask for it the distributor can send it to them, but we're talking sales in the hundreds of units here.

In order to solicit products to the book channel, the timelines are significantly more advanced. The deadlines to Diamond Books, the distributor used by Paizo and Green Ronin, for example, require full solicitation material (title, ISBN, synopsis, and ideally a cover image) WAY out in advance. To get into the tri-annual Diamond catalog you've got to have solicitations ready sometimes up to 10 months in advance. The deadline for product from April through August passed about two and a half weeks ago, so at this point all Gen Con products that are going to take full advantage of book store distribution have missed the boat.

There are opportunities to get solicitations into monthly "sales kits" sent to book stores and chains, but a huge percentage of orders (and especially reorders) come from those tri-annual catalogs.

It's not a matter of not being able to have product ready at Gen Con (yet). It's a matter of how well those products will be distributed.

--Erik
 

Orcus said:
Second, with 4 month lead time, that let 2 publishers have 32 page modules available in a box for sale at the con. I believe they used rush print methods too.

Atlas did; we did not. Atlas did a short run locally for GenCon and then a regular print run afterwards. We took a gamble and did a huge print run of Death in Freeport at a place in Chicago. They drove up boxes to Milwaukee for the GenCon debut.
 

Orcus said:
Products, to be relevant, must be bigger and better. They need significant color, just just b/w. That means print in Canada or China.

Shall I read between the lines and guess that we might see a color Tome of Horrors 4e, Clark?
 

It almost seems that 3rd party publishers are victims of their own success. They are big enough to need longer lead in times, which WOTC apparently can't give them, but, not big enough to strike out independently. Yeesh, rock and a hard place. Thanks for the insight guys.
 

MerricB said:
Actually, I think you'll find that DMs have been specifically taken into account by the 4e design team. A lot of the important systems of 3e that need to be used by DMs (such as NPC and monster creation) were getting far too complicated and unforgiving. Ditto monster abilities. Have a look at some high-level adventures in Dungeon to see how stupidly long the statblocks could get!

Of course a new edition's success will depend on how it manages to convert the DMs over - but I suspect that making the game easier to run and prepare is one of the chief concerns of the 4e design team.

Definitely valid points. But I wonder if this translates to success for 4E. Why couldn't DM's simply get the 4E SRD, or the core, and translate the changes back?

Yeah, they have said conversion is not do-able. But what is it going to boil down to?
Dropping monster ability scores, and with it, ability damage?
Skills and feats?

I guess what I am saying is, if the simplification is essentially dropping systems and details that were added in 3E, so that we have the 1E/2E basics of HD, Thac0/BAB, Dmg, etc, then conversion will still be no big deal, and won't merit more than the SRD, or purchase of 4E core. This means a hybrid 3E/4E campaign; that is, 3E, except with some parts transferred from 4E to simplify and streamline. Essentially a 3E campaign.
The group gets the best of both worlds, and the cost is pretty small, with accordingly small rewards for Hasbro.


And if it is more drastic than that, then yeah, its not going to be convertable really, but that raises a whole different issue. Essentially, how much can it be changed before its just not D&D anymore? The typical answer is D&D is whatever the owner of the company says it is.

The real answer is, D&D is whatever the DM and players say it is. Because this is anecdotal and varied, its very hard to pin down. But from what I have read, the RPG market continues to shrink. If this gradually atrophy is true, I don't see how a 4E that discards what a lot of people consider D&D helps this at all.

The only way I see 4E being a success is if it somehow massively expands the market, bringing in even more completely *new*-new players, something akin to the explosive success AD&D produced. This is necessary to replace the those lost in the switch from 3E to 4E, and I *guarantee* you some will be lost.

Right now, I am just not seeing that, *especially* with the business model being proferred now.

Furthermore, getting new players is almost always dependent on word of mouth. And publicity and so forth.

MerricB said:
Training new DMs? Well, there'll be a new D&D Basic set, which we can hope will help with that. (Despite Gary's protestations, Wizards has had a history of providing help for beginning DMs... just not of the sort that some grognards will accept as help.)

Hmmm, I am curious about this. Please describe. On the software end at least, I thought the 3E support for DMs was nothing short of awful.

Are you referring to the free net stuff?

MerricB said:
Personally, I felt D&D was a lot more "Money Money Money!" during the 2e years. This looks a lot more restrained.

Cheers!

Now this statement is something I completely disagree with. I played through the 2E years, and yeah, some products really were crappy.

But a new PH, MM, DMG every year, (and who knows what else), is a whole new level. To me, the 2E crap products felt more like the designer's fault. TSR was paying them, they were just doing a crappy job because they could get away with it. To me, that speaks to the designer's work ethic more than anything. Yeah, TSR should have exercised closer management.

But I was fooled myself, trusting certain designers who had a proven track record, who in the end produced garbage. That seems to me more like human error than greed.

The thing with the novels, (especially hardback), I can sort of understand. But I look at that as TSR trying to grow an already profitable division, which is just standard business practice. It was a mis-step, and misjudgement by TSR, but the essentially independent nature of novels means it affected my game...not at all.

The release of the "complete" books was very irritating and is probably the best example of TSR's greed to me. And when WotC did the same thing, it was just as unwelcome, but it is apparently business as usual now.

The thing is, even this isn't *that* bad really, since you only need a book relevant to your class.

Anyway, I think that monetizing 4E will only be as successful as our willingness to co-operate with the business model. Disasters like the original DIVX do not augur well for this aspect of the 4E business model IMO.


I'll tell you what I think the real problem for 4E will be.
Not so much the refusers and so forth, though that will be an issue. I think the real problem will be the people who say, "Well, maybe I'll upgrade in a year or two, after so-and-so gives it a shot, etc."

With 3E, the timing, marketing and promotion were such that almost everyone immediately switched, or at least tried it, because of the excitement it generated. I am not seeing that anywhere I go with 4E.

What I personally feel looking at it is: "Ugg, another edition", and an enormous sense of fatigue. Sure, I'll get it eventually. Probably.
 

Sanguinemetaldawn said:
I'll tell you what I think the real problem for 4E will be.
Not so much the refusers and so forth, though that will be an issue. I think the real problem will be the people who say, "Well, maybe I'll upgrade in a year or two, after so-and-so gives it a shot, etc."

I don't think WotC are planning, or even hoping, to convert every current D&D player to 4th edition. And I'm very certain that they don't expect everyone to change over straight away. I'm sure they are counting on a majority converting fairly quickly, while the rest either don't change over at all, or change over after some time has passed, and they have seen a game they like or a game they at least will play so they can stay with the current official D&D edition.

Even though it seems now that we all switched to 3e when it came out, and then to 3.5 when that was released, that is not the case. The process looks very different, and after the initial surge, there will be gamers converting at a fairly low, but steady quip. So I don't think people upgrading in a year or two are worrying WotC. Instead, I believe they are part of the strategy, and will contribute to the long-term economical viability of 4th edition.

/M
 


dmccoy1693 said:
I'm sure they're swamped with work, but they found enough time to close down the listserve.

I was under the impression that it was Dancey who was running the listserv, not WotC.

In fact, after checking the last message ...

Well folks, they served us well and honorably, but the time has come to put
the Open Gaming Foundation lists out to pasture. This is the final official
message from the lists. They'll be shut down shortly.

I have asked, and the ENWorld Team has graciously agreed, to move the OGF
discussions to ENWorld.

Two new forums have been created to mimic these lists. With 4E coming up,
and WotC appearing to be planning to tinker with its licensing regimes, I
suspect interest in these topics will revive. And I don't have the time to
do list management and administration tasks. Rather than ignore the
problem, I think proactively finding a more suitable host was the right way
to go.

Thanks to all who subscribed and participated. You are all the keys to the
success of the Open Gaming Movement.

Ryan

... I'm pretty certain that it was Dancey running the lists. So it seems to me that Dancey shut down the lists, not WotC.

/M
 

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