...I mean, I would argue that
The Happening is actually so atrocious that it somehow circles around to being, unintentionally, a great comedy.
I think that
The Sixth Sense and
Unbreakable were really good films. But unfortunately, "when all you have is a hammer, every problem is a nail." Instead of just working on being a good director, he decided that he would be the biggest twist guy since Chubby Checker.
By
Signs it was obvious that it just wasn't going to work. That film wasn't good, and foreshadowed the rest. I am not going to say that every film since then has been
The Happening terrible, but we're at the point (IMO) that every time he releases a decent movie, people say that he's back. Which is a low bar.
As for ever being a top-tier director?
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