ezo
Hero
Actually, on average they do IMO. Magic items are the only thing that make a difference. Depending on just how you break down the tiers:Side note about the expected % hit rate in 5e- as characters advance in levels they gain bonuses to hit through higher stats, higher proficiency bonus (not including magic item +s).. but enemy ACs don't really rise to match them.
Tier 1: bonus +5, AC 13, need 8
Tier 2: bonus +7, AC 15, need 8
Tier 3: bonus +9, AC 17, need 8
Tier 4: bonus +11, AC 19, need 8
Each tier effectively adding a +1 for proficiency and a +1 for higher ability scores, leaning more towards proficiency since it increases more (4 points), compared to ability scores (2 points). IME stats being at +3, +5 by tier 3.
It is pretty much 65%, +/- 5%. Occasionally you might get an extra 5% swing depending on the PC. Since few features grant bonuses to hit, it is relatively consistent.