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lowkey13
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It's odd that you cite Arthur C. Clarke, here, because your thesis seems to run counter to his well-known maxim, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
Which I would think goes without saying...
...but transposing 21st century tech into, say, the 10th Century would likely get you accused of witchcraft.
I would add that this is always a problem for writers of Science Fiction; much of science fiction works, to a certain extent, by discussing current issues in a future environment in order to make those issues more recognizable (by making them both more foreign and more recognizable). However, the exact contours of the technology and the world even 50 years from now will be nearly impossible to capture, as science fiction necessarily captures the zeitgeist of the time rather than serving as a real prediction of the future; this is why, for example, the vast majority of golden age sci-fi had rocket ship going to space, and not advanced computers or bio-tech.
So what other word other than psion or mystic would you guys use that portrays what the class does?
He wasn't joking. And I apparently misunderstood you- I assumed you just missed the reference, as opposed to deliberately trashing one of the most respected sci-fi authors we have ever produced...
This is a complete misunderstanding of what Clarke was getting at. The vast majority of people today do not understand how their technology works (whether it's TCP/IP for the internet, or gene splicing, or issues involved with batteries, or quantum tunneling). Yet you would posit that, hey, they know it's technology, so it's all good, unlike those heathens in the past.
Well, look back at the famous examples of the Alchemists trying to turn lead into gold. First, they were brilliant (if unsuccessful). Then, later, science showed that they were clueless. Of course, now we know that we can do it- provided we have enough energy. Not really worth doing right now, but still.
What Clarke is saying isn't that people today would go, "ooh.... it's magic ... real magic, not like that David Copperfield stuff," but rather that a sufficiently advanced technology would do things that would make us go, "Wait, you can't do that ... things don't work like that."
And citing light sabers (or other examples of US CURRENTLY dreaming of high tech) doesn't really cut it when it comes to what will actually happen in the future...
...setting aside the obvious error that light sabers are from the past ("A long time ago, in galaxy far far away ...").
I think you may be overinterpreting Clarke's aphorism. There's no guarantee in there that I can see, no promise that anything is possible. The functions of my smartphone would seem "magical" to an observer from 1917. He can probably guess with confidence that it's a product of human technology rather than sorcery -- heck, we can say he's H. G. Wells himself, has a utopian outlook that makes Clarke look like Harlan Ellison, and is ecstatic to see this evidence of the triumphal march of science into the future. But he'd have no idea how any of it worked. If in fact it were the product of sorcery and his optimism about science were misplaced, he would be none the wiser. It would thus be "indistinguishable from magic".Yes, but here is where Clarke is wrong - things don't work like that. Clarke makes the unwarranted assumption that if technology advances sufficiently, anything becomes possibly in the same way that with magic anything becomes possible. And this assumption is unsupported by science and veers off into magical thinking. Science in no way guarantees that man will be uplifted to some future imagined god-like state where anything is possible. Or if you would like, it's possible that for a given sufficiently advanced society, no more advanced society is possible. Moreover, that hard limit is not guaranteed to be remotely in the future.
I think you may be overinterpreting Clarke's aphorism. There's no guarantee in there that I can see, no promise that anything is possible.
The functions of my smartphone would seem "magical" to an observer from 1917. He can probably guess with confidence that it's a product of human technology rather than sorcery -- heck, we can say he's H. G. Wells himself, has a utopian outlook that makes Clarke look like Harlan Ellison, and is ecstatic to see this evidence of the triumphal march of science into the future. But he'd have no idea how any of it worked. If in fact it were the product of sorcery and his optimism about science were misplaced, he would be none the wiser. It would thus be "indistinguishable from magic".
And I think it's reasonable to believe that there will be some technologies from 2117 that would have this same effect on us.
That is my basic thesis here, and if I'm not mistaken, it seems to be [MENTION=6799753]lowkey13[/MENTION]'s as well.I'd personally always taken Clarke's three laws as amusing exaggeration of something that is true, exaggerated for marketability.
In this case, the interpretation is actually a direct contradiction of the law.Clarke's second law "The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.", ends up being interpreted in practice as, "All limits will be eventually over come."
Are you just objecting to the prevalence of the trope that psi is a real and scientifically masterable phenomenon? I mean, yes, I agree with you, that's factually incorrect, and it can sometimes be annoying when it's taken for granted in hard SF. And yes, there is a functioning ouija board in Childhood's End. But I really don't think that the Third Law is referring to psi at all. Psi is seldom described as a "technology", just for starters. Insofar as psi appears too much in SF, that's not an application or even a misapplication of the Third Law -- it's something else entirely. Now, if we were talking about stuff like brain-implanted telephones imitating telepathy and voice-activated computers imitating invocations, that would be the Third Law in action. But seeing as how we can say "Siri, what's the weather forecast?" right now, I can't agree that these possibilities are so implausible as to make the Law objectionable.The most familiar of the three laws is, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic." You want to limit that meaning to be, "Given any sufficiently advanced technology, you'll have no idea how it works." But that's not what it says literally, and it's not how its interpreted in practice. In practice, the law is interpreted as, "A sufficiently advanced society will possess magic." Think about how many science fiction stories and TV shows you've seen where the end state of highly advanced societies is portrayed as having psychic abilities - psychic healing, telepathy, telekinesis, invocations, etc. You have this guy who wakes up from his cryostasis 1000 years after and there are all these flower children sitting around seemingly primitive, but actually having magic. That's reinforcement of Clarke's third law, and you even find it in Clarke's own stories. I mean practically every Clarke story ends with magic being real.
I'm getting a "no true Scotsman" vibe off of your approach to magic. Which is strange, since we both agree that there is no such thing as "true magic" at all. I fundamentally disagree with you: magic is anything you don't understand. As I said, we can easily imagine that my smart phone is the product of sorcery if we don't have the scientific context to know how it works, even though it doesn't behave particularly sympathetically.Marvelous is not the same as magical. Inexplicable is not the same as magic. Magic has a history and has reoccurring ideas in it and makes certain predictions about the world. It's not just anything you don't understand. I'd claim that the problem was Clarke didn't understand what magic was, except that Clarke repeatedly utilizes it in his story telling. For example, magic says that things that resemble other things influence those other things. This is called 'sympathetic magic' and its a reoccurring theme in all the world's magical traditions.
You will note that I compared 1917 to 2017 to 2117. If you actually bother to graph the line, it is linear.I don't. I reject one of the principle ideas that started in the 1950's, and that was the idea that progress was exponential. I reject both the negative fearful claims of that - say 'Future Shock' - and the positive utopian claims of the Golden Age authors. I believe that the long term progress line is linear, and that invariably, people imagine that it is exponential by focusing on very new emergent technologies that are in the process of maturing.
Yes, we're about to hit a ceiling on the power of integrated circuits due to physical limitations -- if they get much smaller, they're going to draw too much power per square millimeter and start melting themselves. However, we also know that the human brain can do its thing on just 20ish watts of power. This is one area where we know that the current physical limitation on our technology is not a hard ceiling on what is possible.The truth is, individual technologies don't even follow linear progress. It's worse than that. Emergent technologies follow a logarithmic curve. "Moore's Law" if you actually bother to graph the line, describes a logarithmic rather than an exponential curve. The longer the time that transpired since the birth of computing, the slower the time span between doubling of computational power. Once we get out of the initial emergent phase, and get into the long tail, growth will be almost flat.
Again, you're giving off the impression that you're really just complaining about psi, and again, I don't think Clarke's Third Law is about psi at all.For now, Celebrim's Observation, "In most science fiction stories about a sufficiently advanced society, the author will assume they've developed psychic powers and the audience will generally suspend less belief to buy that, than they will the technology."