D&D 5E [+] Questions for zero character death players and DMs…

[Charlaquin]

Okay.

So, what I am trying to convey is, regardless of any given choice in a moment, you’re playing an adventurer. Making choices that will lead to physical danger is inherent to the premise. The relevant choice isn’t fighting or not fighting a given enemy, it’s playing the game in the first place.

Yes, the game is about adventuring and adventuring inherently puts you into dangerous situations. But part of the challenge of the game is also recognizing when it’s time to return to the safety of town. It’s a game of push your luck, and yes, luck plays a role, but that role is secondary to your decision to keep pushing or to quit while you’re ahead.

At which point, we’ve just turned “random” into a meaningless concept because nothing in the game is random. It’s all the result of having chosen to play D&D.

Most things in the game have an element of randomness, but almost nothing in the game is entirely random.

Further, the game does not feature an expectation that DMs will even know that there is a 5% chance of a given critter one-shot killing a PC, and certainly no expectation in the rules that players will know the odds.

Umm… It’s called a critical hit? Happens on a natural 20, which is 5% of d20 rolls?

That means it is random from the perspective of the player, which is what is relevant to this discussion.

A critical hit is absolutely a predictable event, and an important one to take into consideration when deciding whether to press on or return to safety.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

A critical hit is absolutely a predictable event, and an important one to take into consideration when deciding whether to press on or return to safety.

We have rather different ideas of what "predictable" means.

 

[Charlaquin]

We have rather different ideas of what "predictable" means.

I can predict how likely it is to occur with near perfect accuracy. It’s a 1 in 20 chance.

 

[James Gasik]

I can predict how likely it is to occur with near perfect accuracy. It’s a 1 in 20 chance.

You can predict it's likelihood, but not when to expect it. I would have a hard time expecting every attack to be a possible critical hit, there are some monsters that deal a LOT of damage that I would never go near (like, say, the Giant Ape with it's 7d6 rock throw) with that mindset.

 

[Charlaquin]

You can predict it's likelihood, but not when to expect it. I would have a hard time expecting every attack to be a possible critical hit, there are some monsters that deal a LOT of damage that I would never go near (like, say, the Giant Ape with it's 7d6 rock throw) with that mindset.

But every attack is a possible critical hit. If you don’t expect that, no wonder character deaths feel random. And, yeah, a character with fewer than 50 hp probably shouldn’t go near a giant ape if they can help it. Unless the player is willing to accept a 1 in 20 chance of the character dying.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

I can predict how likely it is to occur with near perfect accuracy. It’s a 1 in 20 chance.

Knowing the probability does not make the event itself predictable. By definition, being random, it is not predictable. And if you're using a good source of randomness, like radioactive decay, atmospheric noise, or thermal noise, it is provably impossible to "foretell in advance" what will occur.

You might as well say that drawing a royal flush is a perfectly predictable event, simply because we can define exactly the chance of drawing one (1 in 649,740, to be precise, assuming you aren't picky about suit.) That's not "predictable" in any sense of the word as I would use it. Again, for actually good sources of randomness (most of which are quantum-mechanical in nature), it's literally the opposite of "predictable," in fact--it cannot be foretold in advance, not even in principle.

 

[Charlaquin]

Knowing the probability does not make the event itself predictable. By definition, being random, it is not predictable. And if you're using a good source of randomness, like radioactive decay, atmospheric noise, or thermal noise, it is provably impossible to "foretell in advance" what will occur.

You might as well say that drawing a royal flush is a perfectly predictable event, simply because we can define exactly the chance of drawing one (1 in 649,740, to be precise, assuming you aren't picky about suit.) That's not "predictable" in any sense of the word as I would use it. Again, for actually good sources of randomness (most of which are quantum-mechanical in nature), it's literally the opposite of "predictable," in fact--it cannot be foretold in advance, not even in principle.

Of course you can’t fortell a random event in advance. That’s not the same thing as making predictions. No, I don’t know whether or not any given attack is going to be a critical hit, but I do know that about one twentieth of them will be, and can take that into account when making decisions about when to fight and when not to. If I don’t have enough HP to soak twice as much damage as a monster does on a typical attack, I’m going to be looking for a way out of fighting it if at all possible, because a 1 in 20 chance of getting one-shotted isn’t a chance I want to take if I can help it.

 

[JiffyPopTart]

Of course you can’t fortell a random event in advance. That’s not the same thing as making predictions. No, I don’t know whether or not any given attack is going to be a critical hit, but I do know that about one twentieth of them will be, and can take that into account when making decisions about when to fight and when not to. If I don’t have enough HP to soak twice as much damage as a monster does on a typical attack, I’m going to be looking for a way out of fighting it if at all possible, because a 1 in 20 chance of getting one-shotted isn’t a chance I want to take if I can help it.

How do you know how much damage a monster does in an attack before you have been hit by them? How do I know if it's a d8+2 orc or a 2 attack d12+6 orc before the battle? How do I know the giant undead thing in front of me has 40 or 400 HP until I attack it?

Maybe your group uses out of character knowledge more than mine, or perhaps less custom monsters than we do, because I almost never know how bad something can hurt me until I actually have fought one.

 

[EzekielRaiden]

Of course you can’t fortell a random event in advance. That’s not the same thing as making predictions. No, I don’t know whether or not any given attack is going to be a critical hit, but I do know that about one twentieth of them will be, and can take that into account when making decisions about when to fight and when not to. If I don’t have enough HP to soak twice as much damage as a monster does on a typical attack, I’m going to be looking for a way out of fighting it if at all possible.

Predictable, first sense from each source:
"able to be foretold or declared in advance"
"capable of being predicted : able to be known, seen, or declared in advance."
"If you say that an event is predictable, you mean that it is obvious in advance that it will happen."

Even the secondary senses, about what is "expectable," would not include critical hits, since a critical hit is by definition exactly at the typical probability threshold for an unusual event, p=0.05.

Now, even if we take your sense of "predictable"--which appears to simply be a synonym for "possible"--how do you have access to that information? The vast majority of creatures I have fought, and certainly all of the creatures which appeared in the campaign I mentioned, were custom-made. There was no ability for me to know its statistics in advance.

 

[Charlaquin]

How do you know how much damage a monster does in an attack before you have been hit by them?

Generally I don’t, but I can make reasonable guesses. And if I have been hit by them before, I can make better guesses.

How do I know if it's a d8+2 orc or a 2 attack d12+6 orc before the battle? How do I know the giant undead thing in front of me has 40 or 400 HP until I attack it?

You don’t. But, you can probably see what weapons an orc is using and figure around how much damage a hit with it will do on average. If you’ve been fighting orcs for a while (which would make sense if you’re low on HP) you might even be able to estimate based on how much damage most of their attacks have been doing. The undead thing, no idea how much HP it has, but if it’s big you can guess it’ll probably take a lot of hits to kill.

Maybe your group uses out of character knowledge more than mine, or perhaps less custom monsters than we do, because I almost never know how bad something can hurt me until I actually have fought one.

It is hard to make guesses about how hard something can hit you before you’ve fought one, but if you’re low on HP there’s a decent chance you’ve fought one.