Hello folks. I have something to add. There is an argument being presented that it is not meaningful to ask "what would have happened on a success", because the player does not know. Therefore there is no awareness, from the player perspective, of 'weird correlations'. I quoted some posts but will put them at the end.
I want to bring in my own experience. As a player, the first games of BitD I played were really enjoyable, even though the GM was using these weird correlations, because I didn't quite get them at the time. There was enough of a disconnect and enough of a veil that the world seemed organic.
But, this fell apart when I tried running BitD myself. The illusion is only player facing. As the GM, when the player says "I want to open this lock", I start thinking:
ok, what will a success look like? I guess they get in clean. What about fail forward? Hmm, we've established that this is an estate, and the lord will want to eat breakfast early, so maybe the cook is getting in to start working on that. That's nice, it follows from the fiction.
Then there is no illusion and I know exactly what happens on success because I decided it. This made me feel dishonest and like I was cheating my players.
Once I had this experience, I started seeing the "what would have happened on a success" question everywhere, and because I had run it as a GM it felt bad to me as a player. The veil was lifted and the mechanics no longer worked for me.