Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[Jaeger]

...Yes, it is #2. And with no new game on the horizon it will probably continue to be #2 for some time. But, really I think I was wrong to call it #2 in a field of 2. It is the new game of the also-rans, it has a niche fanbase, and it has brand recognition. But even holding in at #1 in the "games that are not in the same weight class as D&D", it isn't growing. ...

PF2 will not reach the same level as PF1 for solid fundamental reasons.

Firstly, the conditions that allowed PF1 to challenge 4e no longer exist. The main one being that the majority of the fanbase actually likes 5e. (not that 4e was a bad seller per se compared to any other rpg…)

Secondly, in general, I think that the hobby is moving away from the 3.x levels of crunch. OSR games, apocalypse world games, Blades in the dark, etc., all show that one can get really close to the feel of a given genre without having to simulate every difference in the game world with a +1 or +2 modifier. Those ideas of gameplay are slowly filtering into the hobby at large.

And of course IMHO, PF2 was not enough of an "improvement" over PF1, that not enough PF1 groups made the switch.

...It hasn't and won't achieve the kind of broad popularity that a PF sequel could have had. ...

This is a big, and rather unknowable question. Pazio to a degree was locked into satisfying their hardcore base. Which put them into a very hard to read situation of calculated risk.

Any edition change will leave players behind. The questions then become how many players will you retain, and how many new players can you attract to make up the difference?

They knew that if they stayed close to the 3.x paradigm of PF1, they would retain a good chunk of their base. The drop-off of players not moving to PF2 was unknowable.

They also know that if PF2 was a big departure from PF1 that a lot of the hardcore base would jump ship - with no guarantee that the "new and improved" PF2 will attract enough new players to make up the difference.

This decision process was also muddied up by the fact that 5e was just as popular as ever and attracting new players to D&D. What is the Not-D&D clone to do?

In the end Pazio played it safe, (and I think that PF2 is the kind of game the developers like anyway.) With the ensuing predictable results.

Now all that being said, best of the rest behind D&D is nothing to sneeze at.

But on the other hand; More so than D&D, PF2 runs the risk of someone else getting their act together, designing a great game, and toppling PF from the #2 spot.

Time will tell.

 

[BryonD]

PF2 will not reach the same level as PF1 for solid fundamental reasons.

You may or may not be right. I certainly think that you have some valid points and the overall issue is very complex. But I'm not even suggesting "reach the same level as PF1".

And of course IMHO, PF2 was not enough of an "improvement" over PF1, that not enough PF1 groups made the switch.

Obviously I agree. But a couple points.

If every single PF1 group made the switch and nothing else then that would clearly be a failure. PF1 was done and, from a marketplace / sustainable business point of view, it HAD to be replaced. But a replacement requires a lot of investment. It needs keep everything and grow nicely. Or lose 100% but make a huge multiplier on new fans back. Or do something in-between. But PF1 was already too small and keeping that fanbase (me included) can be overrated.

Plus, as much as I agree with your opinion. It isn't about your opinion or my opinion (no offense).
I was a big MtG fan for a while. I never got into Pokeman when that became all the rage. The marketplace didn't seem to care. And, of course, you won't find me being critical of Pokeman.

Now all that being said, best of the rest behind D&D is nothing to sneeze at.

Is it? What was the #2 RPG right before PF2E was announced? It was Starfinder. And Pathfinder was right on its heels. But Starfinder dropped out of the top 5 pretty quickly. Clearly it is still popular, but being #2 right after release clearly isn't proof of anything long term. And if online play means anything, more people (then and now) use their old PF books that they don't need to buy to actually play PF than people play SF. Which isn't a knock on SF. I'm just pointing out that there is a difference between new shiny sales and "being #2" as a major achievement. (much less as an indicator of marketshare resilience)
After all, Hoard of the Dragon Queen is a 5E module that came out almost 6 years ago. If we rank RPGs via Amazon sales rank and use ONLY that one title as a surrogate for all of 5E, PF2E still comes in second place. So what does second place really mean?

Time will tell.

Yep.

 

[Markh3rd]

I was hoping to see how many games of PF2 were going to be scheduled for my local gaming convention this year but that got put on hold for now. I use that convention like a thermometer to see how hot or cold a product is doing. Both in game slots available and promotions of the products with the vendors.

 

[Hussar]

I have to say, though, that there seems to be an echo in here. Reaching back ... Yup, pretty much word for word the same discussion from 2008.

 

[BryonD]

I have to say, though, that there seems to be an echo in here. Reaching back ... Yup, pretty much word for word the same discussion from 2008.

Yep. Starts very similar, develops very similar, will continue to track very similar, will end pretty similar.

 

[darjr]

I don’t get it? PF2 == 4e?

 

[teitan]

I don’t get it? PF2 == 4e?

It isn't but it's very similar in layout and presentation. With that presentation it looks like it's incredibly different from the 3.x model but I don't see that, it is very much still PF. The class presentation is just easier to see what applies to what class instead of the big ol list o feats.

 

[darjr]

Sorry, I didn’t mean in content but in sales trajectory.

 

[Hussar]

Sorry, I didn’t mean in content but in sales trajectory.

I was being a bit more pointed. Having had more than a few... erm... discussions with @BryonD in the 4e days, I was commenting that his comments now eerily echo his comments then.

 

[teitan]

Sorry, I didn’t mean in content but in sales trajectory.

Yeah I don't think that Paizo has anything to worry about. Seems P2 is less support heavy other than Lost Omens stuff and the APs and that is probably by design to current market trends and the changes in buying habits of modern players.