D&D 4E Showing the Math: Proving that 4e’s Skill Challenge system is broken (math heavy)

seusomon

Explorer
Very interesting thread. I don't have my DMG yet, but it sounds to me like the main problem is the expectations set up in the text about the difficulty of a typical skill challenge. The system itself is interesting, and could be fun for players with the right sort of mindset to milk it for roleplaying.

I'd like to suggest that DMs think about skill challenges this way:

If you require more successes than you allow failures (the RAW state twice as many), then what this represents is a very delicate situation, a challenge that must be handled nearly without error - a small number of slips, and you lose. These challenges are much more difficult than a basic skill check, and become more difficult as the complexity increases (barring really superior probability of success on each check).

If you require an equal number of successes as you allow failures, then the challenge is roughly as difficult as a single check would be - the difference is just that there is more detail and back-and-forth involved.

If you require fewer successes than you allow failures, this represents a "forgiving" situation - one in which the PCs can mess up a fair amount, as long as they get something to work before an inordinate amount of interaction has taken place.

As a DM, I will use the system but make adjustments to the failure/success ratio according to the thinking above. There is a role for skill challenges of the sort described in the rules, but that role is a narrower niche than was apparently implied in the text. It's not like an "average encounter" - more like an encounter that can only be survived if all the pieces come together just right.

Modifying the DC of the checks or giving the PCs bonuses is more of a band-aid solution - as more and more checks are made, the math of the probabilities will eventually drive the challenge toward failure unless the bonuses are awfully good.

Finally, a point about the more complex challenges actually being easier once the probability of success exceeds a critical level. This makes sense when failures are rare, because then repetition is on your side, smoothing out the effects of the occasional fluke failure. In game world terms, you could imagine a very skilled diplomat, for example, who actually wants the negotiations to be long and extended, because then he has the opportunity to bring all his skills to bear and to correct any missteps he might have made as the negotiations started off. If you have only modest skill at something, your hope is for luck to help you out, and it's not to your advantage to be repeatedly tested. If you are highly skilled, then luck is more an enemy than an ally - you want to keep at it and rely on your talent.
 
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Nail

First Post
Great Thread! Thanks everyone. This is the reason I love ENWorld.

But....boy does this suck. Really. Higher success rate with higher complxity? Sucks. Just sucks.

I find it *really* amusing that our simulations about how Skill Challenges where going to work (pre-May 25th) are actually much better than how they actually work. :lol: Crazy, man. Open source projects rule.
 

TwinBahamut

First Post
This thread is rather depressing...

People keep going around saying essentially "our quick five-minute analysis is perfect, so obviously WotC's several months of detailed design and playtesting was a total joke". Meanwhile, attempts to show that the core assumptions of the five-minute analysis might be flawed (the +5 rule) are shot down without detailed examination.

In other words, people in this thread are more eager to prove that WotC screwed up than try to see how the rules may actually work and how they can actually work with a different interpretation of the text.

If you are supposed to add +5 to everything on the chart, then why wasn't the +5 already added into the chart in the first place? That would be far more consistent with 4E's design, after all. The entire point is to remove the need for the DM to do a lot of work in order to get a proper result. Unless you can resolve that contradiction, then the OP's core assumptions are demonstrably false, meaning his conclusion is false.

It is probably better to assume that seeming exceptions to the general rule that there is a 70% or so success rate should be treated as just that: exceptions, not indicators of a hidden general rule.
 

NewfieDave

First Post
DMG said:
Set a level for the challenge and DCs for the checks involved. As a starting point, set the level of the challenge to the level of the party, and use moderate DCs for the skill checks (See the Difficulty Class and Damage by Level table on page 42).

As per the referenced table on page 42 (which is the best thing the DMG has EVER given me!), the DC for a level 1 skill check of moderate difficulty is 15. I haven't got the slightest clue where you found that extra +5.
 

Nail

First Post
TwinBahamut said:
If you are supposed to add +5 to everything on the chart, then why wasn't the +5 already added into the chart in the first place?
Read page 42. The reason becomes evident if you read the section. Try that before posting to avoid embarrassment.


The DCs presented in the chart are for attacks. That's why the +5 for skill checks are not added.
 

silentounce

First Post
TwinBahamut said:
This thread is rather depressing...

People keep going around saying essentially "our quick five-minute analysis is perfect, so obviously WotC's several months of detailed design and playtesting was a total joke". Meanwhile, attempts to show that the core assumptions of the five-minute analysis might be flawed (the +5 rule) are shot down without detailed examination.

In other words, people in this thread are more eager to prove that WotC screwed up than try to see how the rules may actually work and how they can actually work with a different interpretation of the text.

If you are supposed to add +5 to everything on the chart, then why wasn't the +5 already added into the chart in the first place?
That would be far more consistent with 4E's design, after all. The entire point is to remove the need for the DM to do a lot of work in order to get a proper result. Unless you can resolve that contradiction, then the OP's core assumptions are demonstrably false, meaning his conclusion is false.

It is probably better to assume that seeming exceptions to the general rule that there is a 70% or so success rate should be treated as just that: exceptions, not indicators of a hidden general rule.

Two questions, have you read this ENTIRE thread, and have you read all the pertinent sections of the DMG(Chapters 3 and 5 for the most part)? Because most of what you are complaining about has been addressed in this thread already, especailly that +5 thing. Read what I bolded in your post above, now go look at the table on page 42 and read what is below the line for 28th-30th levels. Read the example on page 42 and look at the bottom of the chart, it's clear as day. How is that a contradiction?

Everything about DCs in the skill challenge section refers to that table. And that table explicitly states that skill checks get a +5 DC. Not to mention that even when not boosting the DC by 5 this system is still broken. Which was already discussed earlier in this thread.

NewfieDave said:
As per the referenced table on page 42 (which is the best thing the DMG has EVER given me!), the DC for a level 1 skill check of moderate difficulty is 15. I haven't got the slightest clue where you found that extra +5.

It helps to read the entire table. As I mentioned above, there are too very important notes below the table. And the default of that table is for ability checks, not for attacks as the guy above me said, which is why there's a +2 for attacks note.
 
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Stalker0

Legend
I appreciate a lot of the compliments I have received for starting this post, but let me say that I wasn't the first person to reveal this problem, there were threads on it before I even knew there was a problem.

However, if you would like to give me praise, please follow the link in my first post. This is a solution to the skill challenge problem. It sets the win rate at a good number, it lowers the variability between complexities, it reduces the variation with changing skill DCs, it fixes the problem that higher complexities can give easier results, and its more interactive and dynamic then the original system. I have spent hours and hours going over calculations and simulations to make it work, and I'm very proud of it.

Further, its only getting better! I'm already working on a new simple and elegant rule to reduce the variance even more. With luck, the new system will be absolutely rock solid. So please take a look.

People are asking the question, can you simply use the numbers in the table, don't add the +5, and will the system work?

The answer is...kind of. The win rate becomes much more reasonable, but you still have the complexity inversion problem, and the system is HORRIBLY intolerant of variation. The difference in win rate between complexity 1 and 5 is huge. The difference for a party with a 65% chance of beating each skill and a 60% is large. Its just not a good system either way.
 

diamabel75

First Post
It seems that a better way (assuming that the +5 pertains to individual skill checks and not those associated with a skill challenge) would be to have a static 4 failures and simply increase the successes needed to increase the 'complexity' of the challenge.
 

Mal Malenkirk

First Post
Weird.

I have been using 10/15/20 as my checks and it's worked very smooth. In truth, I've also used a lot of intermediary numbers like 12.

Where did I get this from? Anyway, it's fairly intuitive. 10 is close to a sure thing but not quite; all it takes is one bad roll + 1 PC with no immediately useful skills and you're on edge on a complexity 1 challenge. 20 is really rough, you better have a plan for what to do if they fail, which they probably will, and have a cool reward for success. At a glance I would expect 25 to be so statistically unlikely that there is no point attempting it. 15 is balanced.

Frankly, I just eyeball it, the way you estimate your odds at the poker table, you know? Worked very fine so far.
 

silentounce

First Post
diamabel75 said:
It seems that a better way (assuming that the +5 pertains to individual skill checks and not those associated with a skill challenge) would be to have a static 4 failures and simply increase the successes needed to increase the 'complexity' of the challenge.

But that's not just increasing "complexity", that's also decreasing difficulty. Which is one of the problems of the RAW to begin with.
 

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