D&D 5E The all-inclusive 4/5E DDI

[UngainlyTitan]

I could see the game evolving toward the greater use of components.
Stuff like the fortune cards are the beginning but I guess other elements are possible.
It might be driven by a combination of the ease of piracy making small press ebooks uneconomic and the desire to retain the hobby shops as recruiting ground for the game.

 

[Riastlin]

I do think that digital distribution is absolutely the future. Not just for RPGs, but for pretty much all books. Heck, just look at Borders. Sure, you can argue that Borders could have been run better, and maybe they could have, but the bottom line is that they are a major bookseller that appears to be on the verge of total collapse. Same thing happened with Blockbuster (albeit movie rentals, not book sales).

So I would be shocked if the next edition didn't have a digital distribution method. With the rise of tablets, kindles, and other readers, e-book formats seem to make complete sense -- particularly since a lot of rpg players are also technically savvy and/or into the "gadgets". I also think that DDi is likely to only grow as the tools improve. Although there certainly are some valid complaints with the current DDi offerings, there's really little mistaking the fact that at the very least, the Character Builder makes building and levelling up characters much, much easier. Sure it isn't perfect, but its still a great tool AND it gives you access to all of their crunch content, something that would cost you hundreds of dollars otherwise.

All that being said, and while maintaining that digital distribution is the future, I do agree that WotC will not fully pull out of the physical book sale arena until they are left without a choice. Physical books are great for the FLGS. They are a great way to advertise in book stores, and they are a great way to introduce somebody to the game who might not otherwise try it. So WotC will continue to print books, but I think that their print offerings will start to dwindle. They will more and more point to DDi for their offerings, particularly of pure crunch and player options, etc.

Eventually though (and keep in mind this is pretty distant) they will stop printing books altogether. Why? Because I think books in general will stop being printed. Eventually everyone will be using readers, laptops, tablets, or whatever other new device is out there, to get their literature. Its not practical to do so now (too many people refuse to try them, or think they can't learn how to use them -- my mom actually took a class at Barnes & Noble on how to use her Nook). But soon enough, it will be second nature. Three year old kids nowadays understand how to use IPads, CD players, etc. They will have no problem with readers. Even for most middle aged on down people right now the only things holding them back from going the reader route are a) initial cost of the reader b) concerns about battery life/glare and c) the "feeling of curling up with a good, physical book".

Going onto the side note of dropping edition tags, that's an interesting thought. I could certainly see it happening. The key though is that in order to make it work they would have to either a) allow filtering in the online tools for choosing which options are available or b) make the changes so gradual that the game seemlessly flows from release to release. What you can't do is make a change like we saw from 2nd edition to 3.0 or from 3.5 to 4.0. The systems just are not particularly compatible. 3.0 to 3.5 and 4.0 to Essentials though works much better. In fact, as has been shown, you can play essentials along side 4.0 "classic" without any trouble. 3.0 to 3.5 was a bit more difficult to make compatible but was certainly not as big as say the move to 3.0 or 4.0.

 

[DracoSuave]

The problem with digital distribution is thinking of gaming books as... well... just books. It's not. They aren't.

They're components in a game that involves social interaction.

Think if brick-and-mortars as more than just places to buy games. They're places to socialize about the hobby. They are centers at which you can not only get games and gaming supplies, but also discuss those games, find out new things in the hobby.

As a social hobby, tabletop gaming is best served by having physical stores.

If you move the main sales thrust away from the brick and mortar, you have to also move the social aspect as well. Which means online.

Which means the social aspect of gaming has to move online. Which means the game has to move to an online video game experience. Which means that tabletop rpgs have to compete with actual video game rpgs in order to get market share. Which means tabletop rpgs have to become facebook games, or become video games themselves.

Which means... they cease to exist as tabletop games.

The hobby -absolutely- requires brick-and-mortars. This future you describe is one where tabletop gaming becomes unsustainable and means the death of the hobby.

Thank god Wizards is actually owned by a toy and game company, who understands the necessity of brick-and-mortar stores for the big picture.

 

[Dumnbunny]

I think the future is with Online Digital Books built into DDI. ie some kind of online or download program that loads the Corebook you want and the only way to "copy" it would be to Print Screen your computer page by page and edit it. Whilst I have no doubt that some people would try that, the majority of people faced with DRM copy protection that isn't EASILY bypassed (see the new EA or Blizzard MUST-BE-ONLINE-TO-PLAY DRM) just accept that it is unpiratable / hard to pirate and move on.

The big difference between this DRM and what Blizzard and EA are doing is the majority of people don't need to bypass the DRM, only one person, which will happen. Consider the current state of affairs; in order to pirate, say, Heroes of Shadow, someone would need to cut off the spine of a book, feed each page into a scanner, run an OCR on it, clean up the OCR errors, add links, etc, etc. Thanks to an early release copy, someone did just that, and had it out there in time for the book's official street date.

The other problem with what you describe is that people much prefer to read books on eReaders and tablets. Desktop and laptop computers have always been able to read various ebook formats, but it wasn't until the release of eReaders that the ebook market became more than a novelty. I can't see Wizards going with a proprietary ebook format and software and losing the eReader, and most or all of the tablet, markets.

 

[Dumnbunny]

Eventually though (and keep in mind this is pretty distant) they will stop printing books altogether.

In addition to the interesting reversal on piracy-friendly ebooks, speculation on an all ebook future has me pondering what Wizards might do about the Game Day and Encounters programs. If they simply stop publishing books and selling them through game stores, the stores will obviously have no reason to host official WotC events. Losing those events would be a loss for Wizards; I don't know how effective they are as marketing tools, but I have to believe they are worth the money spent on them.

There are efforts aimed at getting the brick-and-mortar stores involved in PDFs; perhaps Wizards could do something along those lines, keeping the local game stores involved somehow.

In any event, this is an interesting discussion.

 

[wlmartin]

Dumnbunny[/COLOR];5623970]The big difference between this DRM and what Blizzard and EA are doing is the majority of people don't need to bypass the DRM, only one person, which will happen. Consider the current state of affairs; in order to pirate, say, Heroes of Shadow, someone would need to cut off the spine of a book, feed each page into a scanner, run an OCR on it, clean up the OCR errors, add links, etc, etc. Thanks to an early release copy, someone did just that, and had it out there in time for the book's official street date.

The other problem with what you describe is that people much prefer to read books on eReaders and tablets. Desktop and laptop computers have always been able to read various ebook formats, but it wasn't until the release of eReaders that the ebook market became more than a novelty. I can't see Wizards going with a proprietary ebook format and software and losing the eReader, and most or all of the tablet, markets.

You are right in a lot if not all of what you are saying. There really is no solid DRM option for books. I suppose that just like Supermarkets who have to build a specific amount of money into their operating budget for unknown loss (theft) so must WotC. They must accept that out that for every 200 loyal customers there are 50 disloyal ones who would download content online or share it. So if they are ever looking to project retail sales, they must effectively work 25% more to get the same results.

At least if they are going to go Digital and do it in a DDI only download or DDI only viewing, if this ratio still exists the cost of producing the books is a lot lower so this allows them more freedom to recover their losses

 

[DracoSuave]

In addition to the interesting reversal on piracy-friendly ebooks, speculation on an all ebook future has me pondering what Wizards might do about the Game Day and Encounters programs. If they simply stop publishing books and selling them through game stores, the stores will obviously have no reason to host official WotC events. Losing those events would be a loss for Wizards; I don't know how effective they are as marketing tools, but I have to believe they are worth the money spent on them.

There are efforts aimed at getting the brick-and-mortar stores involved in PDFs; perhaps Wizards could do something along those lines, keeping the local game stores involved somehow.

In any event, this is an interesting discussion.

This exactly. I mean, let's assume gaming companies go all pdf.

Where do you buy your dice?
Where do you buy your battlemats?
Your tiles?
Your physical accoutrements so you can play the game you love?

The brick and mortar, right?

But what brick and mortar carries products for lines they don't sell?

A similar problem happened with the Eye of Judgement game. It had every chance of being successful... combining software with cards sales.

The problem happened when companies selling the game didn't want to stock the cards, and companies selling cards didn't want to sell cards for a game they couldn't stock. As a result (at least where I live)... the game could never get anyone.

The problem with going all PDFs is that you can't touch them. You can't look at it and read it at the store. You can't get a feel for it... it can't sell itself to you. A physical book sells itself. A PDF requires other things to sell it.

Gaming is about experiences... it's sold through experiences, and what is being sold are experiences.


SOME people want digital copies--not enough to make the endevour worthwhile. And SOME people don't want anything to do with digital copies. They're not as convenient for as many people as a book is.

I think that WoTC's actually tackling the issue correctly. The digital offerings are not the same as the books. They have their own value that books cannot, so they're worth it on their own merits. By the same token, they don't take away the value of the books, thusly allowing them to continue bringing new players into the game, as well as offering physical accoutrements that are quit handy for playing the game.

But just offering straight digital copies? History has shown there's multiple problems inherent in that, and none of those problems have been addressed or solved.

Besides all that, WoTC is a brick-and-mortar company that sells Brick-and-mortar games. Some survive digital versions (Magic does well online, tho I wouldn't want it to become online only) and others simply aren't (Board games are best played at a table with friends). They need brick-and-mortar support to work.

Lastly, D&D is a physical game where people physically gather to play it. Physical existance of the gameset is obviously the best fit for most gamers. Even those who say that it'd be more convenient to have pdfs... don't find physical books -that- inconvenient.

 

[Jan van Leyden]

In addition to the interesting reversal on piracy-friendly ebooks, speculation on an all ebook future has me pondering what Wizards might do about the Game Day and Encounters programs. If they simply stop publishing books and selling them through game stores, the stores will obviously have no reason to host official WotC events. Losing those events would be a loss for Wizards; I don't know how effective they are as marketing tools, but I have to believe they are worth the money spent on them.

Uh, organized games via VTT anyone? A Celebrity Games Program you may either pay to participate in or gain such a seat via some other means? Keep in mind that such an organized play even increases the reach of the program. I, for one, won't drive 50 miles to play in an in-store game, but I'd love to be part of an organized VTT game.

What if WotC silently phases out the b&m game shop in lieu of the more direct, digital line? Even if they maintain severals printed books they can get those to their customers without a hustle.

There are efforts aimed at getting the brick-and-mortar stores involved in PDFs; perhaps Wizards could do something along those lines, keeping the local game stores involved somehow.

If they're going digital-only, they probably see no advantage in a strategy to keep this shops involved.

Interesting times, indeed.

 

[Jan van Leyden]

Playing Devil's Adocate, here:

This exactly. I mean, let's assume gaming companies go all pdf.

Where do you buy your dice?

My dice are those shiny buttons on the monitor. And if I want to play at my dinner table I either have them or I make do with some cool app on my latest smartphone.

Where do you buy your battlemats?
Your tiles?

I don't buy the, I get them along with my other digital stuff. If I want to play at my dinner table I just print them.

Your physical accoutrements so you can play the game you love?

You mean chips&soda? Not in a game shop. Or are you talking about those miniatures? I can't buy them through the b&m either as WotC has taken them off the market anyway. They have been replaced by tokens, which I easily print for my own use.

The brick and mortar, right?

Dunno. I wouldn't drive 50 miles to the next b&m in order to get some dice or to look at what new stuff they might have. If I need any physical stuff I have to inform myself of my options on the internet anyway, regardless whether I take the drive to the store or place a mail order. So why not take the convenient way?

By removing the classical game shop from the equation and designing their whole business model in a digital, shopless way, WotC actually increases the reach of its products.

 

[DEFCON 1]

I think the big split between the need for a game store plus D&D product for said game store, and a fully online digital Dungeons & Dragons... comes down to the idea of getting people involved with the hobby who have no idea or help to do so.

Draco is correct when he says that you need a place to go to get all of your acoutrement to run a game (or to actually get the game itself). Jan is also right in that you can get everything you need for a game online (either through actually online tools like dice rollers and VT... or just being able to order the physical product from online stores.)

So the question becomes... who goes to either place, and which one will give you the highest benefit to cost ratio?

For those most part... any 'experienced' RPG player already has access to most (if not all) of what he or she needs to play ANY rpg. Dice, mats, pencils, pens, character sheets... all that stuff is already either in their possession, in the possession of other friends that can be borrowed, or is easily acquired online through online stores. So right now there is a huge swathe of players who are all set for '5E' (or whatever the next iteration will be called) even if it got released completely digitally through DDI and e-readers, with no physically product whatsoever.

However... by doing it this way, WotC would pretty much be conceding the fact that they would only be gearing their game to people already "in the circle" as it were. Only those people who were already gamers or gamer-adjacent (family or friends of gamers). At that point it would just comes down to making a game so universally good accessible that it gets gamers of all walks to pick it up.

Now that would be a very big concession-- acknowledging that getting kids who have no connection to the tabletop gaming industry is a virtual impossibility and it's not worth spending money to try. I would not put it past WotC to actually come to that conclusion (depending on ultimately how successful or not successful their last attempts like the Red Box and Essentials actually were)... but if they did, that'd be a big deal. But perhaps in this day and age, the tabletop circle just can't get any bigger, regardless of the money you spend and the product you make to try?

Perhaps we have come (or will be soon coming) to a time when having physical game product in a location that is meant to be an impulse buy by someone who doesn't already have access or know how to acquire it, is no longer fiscally responsible to produce? It'd be sad to think that, as we'd lose one of our great institutions of nerdom... but eventually the arcade went virtually extinct as well.