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D&D 5E The math of D&D Next; a moderating proposal

AntiStateQuixote

Enemy of the State
Inspired by many threads on this board of late. Let's "flatten" the math.

I'll focus on attack rolls vs. AC, but assume a similar scale applies to all d20-based math. Assume the "class/level options" works across 20 or 30 (whatever the game supports) levels.

The most basic of d20 rolls in Dungeons and Dragons is a weapon (or claw or bite) attack against armor class.

Armor class measures the difficulty of landing an effective blow with a weapon against the target.

AC range 10 - 30
  • AC 10: an unarmored, unskilled, and untrained normal humanoid
  • AC 15: a lightly armored humanoid with basic combat training
  • AC 20: a moderately trained warrior wearing very good non-magical armor
  • AC 30: a supremely trained warrior wearing the very best of magical armor and other magical protections

Attack bonus indicates a creatures capability (training, specialization, magic weapon, etc.) in landing effective blows.

Attack Bonus range 0 - 20
  • Attack bonus 0: an untrained normal humanoid wielding any non-magical weapon
  • Attack bonus 5: a normal humanoid with basic combat ability wielding a decent weapon in which s/he has training
  • Attack bonus 10: a moderately trained warrior wielding a very good (masterwork?) non-magical weapon
  • Attack bonus 20: a supremely trained warrior wielding the very best of magical weapons with a specialized focus on using that weapon

Result: a warrior with "level appropriate" skill/magic/etc. will hit a "level appriopriate" AC on a die roll of 10 or higher.

Where do the numbers come from?
Armor Class
  • Ability bonus (max out at 5 with diminishing returns based on armor worn)
  • Training (class options and level bonus max out at 7 for "AC optimizer")
  • Armor (full plate and shield max out at 10; armor requires training to use)
  • Magic (max 3)

Attack bonus
  • Ability bonus (max out at 5)
  • Training (class options and level max 12 for "attack optimizer;" inlcudes specialization with specific weapon)
  • Magic (max 3)

End result: the "very best" attack roll in the game hits the "very best" AC on a roll of 10. No single character can have both the very best AC and the very best attack. Players make meaningful choices in character capability as they gain levels (attack or defense).

These ideas do not account for situational or temporary modifiers: cover, combat advantage, aid another, etc.

Because the overall math is flatter (many/most critters have AC 15 to 25, attack rolls +5 to +15) there's less need for scaling of critters and making a ton of new monsters for each level that really just stretch numbers without adding any new "neat" to the game.

Flame on!
 

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Sounds decent. I'd prefer if, instead of "magic" providing +3, you had magic items cause no change to AC or attack bonuses. Instead, set aside up to +3 for tactics. Maybe there's one variety of attack that improves your AC by 3 but lowers your attack bonus by 3, or vice versa. (Actually, that's not a very interesting choice, but there should be something clever you can offer.)

Let your attacks and defenses change round by round, based on tactics.
 

BobTheNob

First Post
On the whole, your analysis is correct. More than that, kudos for stripping back numbers to core and presenting them concisely before drawing conclusions.

If I might ask a question though. You have 20 points worth of growth...over what level range is that? 1-20 or 1-30?

4e had a level range of 1-30 and (roughly) supported a point of d20 growth per level. Now, If what you are proposing is over the 1-30 range, then yes, you have flattened compared to 4e. If however, what you have proposed is over the 1-20 range, its not flattened at all (or have I mis-understood?).

Personally, my objective with flattening would be to get the total bonus less significant that the roll itself. As such, I had envisaged (in a flattened system) the absolute ceiling to a single roll to be around 10 (with character growth otherwise being defined by diversification), not counting situational benefits.
 

AntiStateQuixote

Enemy of the State
If I might ask a question though. You have 20 points worth of growth...over what level range is that? 1-20 or 1-30?
I mentioned either 20 or 30 levels. Doesn't much matter to me. Conceivably it's 20 levels plus epic! doesn't change the numbers but instead adds options? I dunno.

Also, the range is not 20 over 20 (or 30) levels. To achieve the max +20 to attack roll at max level you probably START with +5ish? So, your change is 15 points over the life of the character assuming you make every choice you can to increase attack roll (at the expense of other options). A non-optimized character may start at +2 or +3 and never get higher than +15.

Same with AC: an AC optimizer probably starts at AC 15 or better.
 

Frostmarrow

First Post
Result: a warrior with "level appropriate" skill/magic/etc. will hit a "level appriopriate" AC on a die roll of 10 or higher.

I think the assumption that 50% chance is something to strive for or set the balance at is wrong. The golden mean of a hundred is ~62% This was probably the background of the whole feat tax debacle of 4E i.e. increasing to hit chance from 55% to 60%. 50% is swingy, out of control, or just another coin toss.
62% is sweet.
 

BobTheNob

First Post
I mentioned either 20 or 30 levels. Doesn't much matter to me. Conceivably it's 20 levels plus epic! doesn't change the numbers but instead adds options? I dunno.

Also, the range is not 20 over 20 (or 30) levels. To achieve the max +20 to attack roll at max level you probably START with +5ish? So, your change is 15 points over the life of the character assuming you make every choice you can to increase attack roll (at the expense of other options). A non-optimized character may start at +2 or +3 and never get higher than +15.

Same with AC: an AC optimizer probably starts at AC 15 or better.
Gotcha. 15 points worth of growth. If thats over 30 levels, it definitely flatter than 4e.
 

Crazy Jerome

First Post
End result: the "very best" attack roll in the game hits the "very best" AC on a roll of 10. No single character can have both the very best AC and the very best attack. Players make meaningful choices in character capability as they gain levels (attack or defense).

I think the assumption that 50% chance is something to strive for or set the balance at is wrong. The golden mean of a hundred is ~62% This was probably the background of the whole feat tax debacle of 4E i.e. increasing to hit chance from 55% to 60%. 50% is swingy, out of control, or just another coin toss.
62% is sweet.

It is even a bigger problem if opportunity costs restrict those very best attacks and defenses. You want around 2/3 success as your average. If you make it the ceiling in such a system, practically you'll get much worse than that as the average. One on one, that can work. The guy with lousy attack traded for perfect defense, against the opposite, balances out. But once you add several actors in such a system, you'll find that attack is more valuable than defense.

I think you'll find in practice that you want the very best offense against a reasonable (AKA moderate, average) defense to top out around 75%, while the very best defense against a reasonable offense drops success down no more than about 40% to 50% (not as sure about this lower bound).
 

Minigiant

Legend
Supporter
50% average accuracy is the bad. That is for martally trained squishies. Real warriors hit 65% or better.


I'm glad Somebody is thinking about the mathematics though.
 

Libramarian

Adventurer
I don't like this absolute symmetry between attack bonus and AC, based on the assumption that there is a mathematically ideal success chance that we want to maintain for the whole game. That's boring.

It adds a nice texture to the feel of advancement if your chance goes up as you level. And it makes sense, particularly in combat. Experienced fighters land a higher percentage of their blows than inexperienced fighters, even against opponents of equal skill.

I'd like to see the chance of hitting an equal level opponent scale from say 50% to 80% as you level.
 


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