Nope. Most often there is a choice.Then most often it’s not a real choice, which again, was my point.
Nope. Average damage is not the sole measurement. As long as you think that is, there is no point of discussing further.If it’s not totally clear, then calculating average damage is how you find out if the risk is worth the reward.
Hint: Variance/Standard deviation.
Please take one or the other lesson in statistics and we can start over.
@chess: At the level I play, there is a lot risk vs reward going on (about ELO 1800). I guess even Magnus Carlsen (about ELO 2800) takes one or the other risk if he needs to win. We are not computers who can calculate everything. And even the best computers have not solved chess from the opening position. But again. Maybe you are way better in calculating on the spot than I or Magnus Carlsen (or computers are). Or better than Poker players who are very good at calculating odds and still lose one or the other game. Oh damn. Over the long run, they win... exactly... over the long run. D&D combats are too short.