Ukraine invasion

[Zardnaar]

I don't doubt they can find uses for MIGs and tanks have been helping clear villages alongside infantry. However, anything that Russia has a chance of dealing with should only come after what they can't deal with. The latest fashion is to attach mortar shells to domestic drones and float a few of them over targets. Completely freaks the Russians out, damn all they can do about it and the operators are gone almost as soon as they appeared.

I know. Probably doesn't help much in driving Russians out that's what the incoming heavy weapons are for.

Russia night not be in any shape to attack come June when ground dries up.

They've lost around half the tanks and vehicles etc they deployed in theatre (580/1200).

Who knows how may tanks they have out of the 2500-2800 they were supposed to have.

Lots of speculation they'll announce mobilization on May 9.

 

[Sacrosanct]

You can bet every modern army in the world is looking at the impact of drones on the combat field and taking notes. IMO, I think it's as revolutionary to warfare as the utilization of mechanized warfare after WWI. If I were a betting man, I'd bet wealthy countries are looking to speed run the development on unmanned intercept aircraft. Imagine, a small aircraft allowing 12-hour flight times just patrolling for enemy aircraft, and since they are unmanned, they don't have to worry about G forces (or pilot death, naturally).

 

[Zardnaar]

You can bet every modern army in the world is looking at the impact of drones on the combat field and taking notes. IMO, I think it's as revolutionary to warfare as the utilization of mechanized warfare after WWI. If I were a betting man, I'd bet wealthy countries are looking to speed run the development on unmanned intercept aircraft. Imagine, a small aircraft allowing 12-hour flight times just patrolling for enemy aircraft, and since they are unmanned, they don't have to worry about G forces (or pilot death, naturally).

Or you get some cheap almost disposable drone and put a shotgun on it.

Something like the Gepard is better than S-400 for that purpose apparently.

 

[Horwath]

Or you get some cheap almost disposable drone and put a shotgun on it.

Something like the Gepard is better than S-400 for that purpose apparently.

some cheap $20 drone with single frag granade.

 

[Nikosandros]

Aren't the Ukrainians getting F-16's though?

Not anytime soon, AFAIK. The pilots would need extensive training.

 

[Ulfgeir]

Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.

Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.

 

[Zardnaar]

some cheap $20 drone with single frag granade.

Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.

Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.

Theoretically yes accuracy no.

A Drone Doolittle Raid: How Ukraine Could Hit Moscow

Exactly eighty years ago American bombers carried out a surprise strike on Japan in the famous Doolittle Raid. Ukraine could carry out a modern version using its drones to send a powerful message to Russia.

www.google.com

Would probably be counter productive as well. Had this thought ready if Putin attended.


This guy has been asking interesting content recently. Lived in Kyiv prewar (American expat).

 

[Ulfgeir]

Theoretically yes accuracy no.

Would probably be counter productive as well. Had this thought ready if Putin attend ed.

That it would be counter-productive was my thought as well. In a movie, sure it would work. In real life, then the response would be really bad. Especially from a thin-skinned dictator who lies to his people.

 

[Zardnaar]

That it would be counter-productive was my thought as well. In a movie, sure it would work. In real life, then the response would be really bad. Especially from a thin-skinned dictator who lies to his people.

Yeah he could do worse eg formally declear war and mobilisation.

 

[Ulfgeir]

Yeah he could do worse eg formally declear war and mobilisation.

Or respond with nukes...

 

[Zardnaar]

Or respond with nukes...

Unlikely. Any strike in Moscow espicially on May 9th though would be more likely to trigger formal war DoW.

Bad idea either way though for very little gain.

 

[Horwath]

Or respond with nukes...

true.

unless you can nuke Red square for the parade don't bother with pinprick attacks.

 

[Eltab]

Just out of curiosity, does Ukraine have anything with very long range and precision. Would be an eye-opener for the Russians If their planned celebrations parade in Moscow was hit in such a way that only the military vehicles were destroyed.

Might not be doable, and probably a bad idea though.

Zap Putin personally, and the war effort goes on Pause (or autopilot) while a bunch of would-be successors sort out "Who's in charge here?!"

Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.

 

[Davies]

Somebody with no ambition to necromancy the Soviet Union might decide to blame it all on Putin, back off, and ask the diplomats to provide a fig leaf to get out of the mess.

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

 

[Rabulias]

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

 

[Zardnaar]

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

All the people in charge are essentially complicit. Pretty much United Russia goes down to the mayor level.

Any civil institution that can run a Democracy even a flawed one has been corrupted or shut down.

They've never had a functioning democracy just 500 years of varying levels of autocracy.

USSR collapsed in 1991 by 1993 the "democratically elected" Yeltsin was using tanks to fire on the white house.

The average Russian associates democracy with the 90's. At best it was flawed and lasted 13 odd years.

There's no liberal opposition as such even if you found one all the institutions are run by United Russia and corruption is baked in for the last 50 odd years at least.

Putin's legal successor is essentially a puppet with no base of power or support in the siloviki.

 

[Davies]

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

I apologize, that was not what I intended.

One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it.

This is more what I was trying to say.

 

[Ulfgeir]

The "palace coup" hope (an unlikely but not impossible scenario) holds that someone inside Russia (and likely from one of those potential successors) realizes that what Putin is doing is disastrous to Russia's future and Russian interests. It would be illogical that they would continue Putin's plans, at least in the near term, even if they hold the same beliefs about the Soviet Union. If Putin were removed by external instead of internal elements, his successor would at least realize that immediate continuation of Putin's plans would shift the target to themselves.

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

One problem I see if he is removed by external forces; it might make the Russians more determined to continue the war, and escalate it. As then you would for sure have an external enemy. My reading is that Ukraine doing it might be ok, given there already is a conflict, but it very much depends on how it is spun. Provable NATO forces doing it, hell no.

It really is a horrible situation.

 

[Ryujin]

I would take issue with this, painting the whole of Russian society as potential dictators.

It's not all Russians. It's the "but some animals are more equal than others" Russians.

 

[Eltab]

That's a rather large assumption on which to base an entire operation -- that Putin's eventual successor will be someone without that ambition.

"[T]he dictator is merely the tip of the whole festering boil of social pus from which dictators emerge".

I observe that Operation Valkyrie (upon which the movie of the same name is based) was a 1944 effort by some German Army officers to get rid of Adolph Hitler personally and take over the Government, under the belief that with him gone they could negotiate an end to the World War.

Of course it did not work as planned but a similar theory can still seem to apply. An absolute leader who has built a cult of personality around himself can create the impression that without his direction, the machine of government will grind to a halt.