Ukraine invasion

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If true, it could mean a withdrawal if the plotters are successful

and if they aren't...promotions all around.

Coup plots are usually super secret and happen unexpectedly.

I highly doubt that if a super secret coup was underway, Ukranian intelligence would some how know about it, and Putin would not. It seems more likely anti-Putin groups are spreading rumors of a coup, in order to make it a self fulfilling prophecy. The goal might be to make Putin even more paranoid of the people around him, which in turn might make those around him nervous.... and more likely to consider commiting a coup.

I'm happy to be proven wrong however.


I don't think a coup is to likely.

1. Oligarchs have very little actual power or access to the levers of power.

2. The ones that do are essentially reliant on Putin if he goes so do they.

3. The ones with power and access are often unpopular with the rest. So if they get rid of Putin the others get rid of them.

4. Conditions in Russia aren't that bad yet for a popular uprising or a coup in ones name.

It would have to come from FSB or military supported by the population or lots of other members of United Russia.

Putin's also the tip if the iceberg everyone under him is almost as basd at best you get someone a bit more diplomatic.

And they've kinda dug themselves into a corner as well. Any replacement might have to end the war making concessions which is kinda suicidal.

And even if one did you potentially get a revanchist stab in the back type scenario.

Basically things have to get a lot worse. Russia might stop attacking but they can just dig in like the past 8 years.

New equipment might let you dog them out eventually. Assuming Russia loses and takes it on the chin most estimates are August through to end of the year.

That's planting season gone anyway. No exports via the Black Sea anytime soon.
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If there is going to be a coup, I suspect it would come from the military. Not saying it will happen, only IF it does, that's where I see it originating.

Military soldiers aren't keen on getting themselves blown up for nothing. And there is already intercepted talk from Russian soldiers talking about deserting and riots.


What a mess.

I agree that the rumours of a coup are likely to only be propaganda.

The military rebelling seems more likely. At the very least not doing quite what they're told. Maybe not quite as far as throwing down arms, unfortunately.


If true, it could mean a withdrawal if the plotters are successful

and if they aren't...promotions all around.


I think it's also likely rumor/wishful thinking/messing with Putin's head. I have also read unconfirmed rumors online that he has Parkinson's. And if any of it were true, I doubt we will get confirmation unless he dies from it (and maybe not even then).
Most likely it's out there to mess with his Strong Man riding a horse, shirtless, in the wilderness public persona.


Dictators are not unlike 1970s football players forever plunging to the deck and writhing in agony only to suddenly recover just after the player who lightly brushed against them gets booked. It stirs the pot to see if potential rivals take a nibble at the hook, elicits sympathy and totally explains why you've not been on top form lately. Given Putin's recent form I'd expect clouds of magic spray on the ankle and a certain amount of lying back hands on head while concerned trainers mutter ominously.

And yes some of his ultra-nationalist chums would make staggeringly awful replacements. More or less swapping out Chucky for Bride of Chucky.

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