Ukraine invasion

[Horwath]

And possibly Kyiv as well. They may be rolling back to, "all we really wanted was in the Donbas region, and to make clear that we won't have you joining NATO."

loosely translated, we are getting our #### handed to us outside Donbas so we will regroup there.
This does not mean that Ukrainians aren't suffering heavy losses also.

 

[Umbran]

loosely translated, we are getting our #### handed to us outside Donbas so we will regroup there.

I think it'll turn out to be more than just regroup. I think they realize that taking the whole country at this time simply isn't going to work. They're likely rolling back to something they might be able to hold onto strongly enough to get in negotiations.

This does not mean that Ukrainians aren't suffering heavy losses also.

Oh, of course not. Beating off the Russians has a heavy, heavy toll.

 

[Zardnaar]

I said on a different site they may be able to beat some dirt out of Ukraine and force them to sign something. The international community doesn't have to accept that treaty or whatever and they can keep sanctions on.

Even if Russia pulled back to to borders from 6 weeks or so ago sanctions are going be worse now than then. If they take any dirt I imagine sanctions will remain. I suspect to get them removed they'll have to pull back to pre 2014 borders.

Apparently they can't replace any tanks lost as they used western components. They could produce them to 1980's standards I suppose then they're essentially deaf, dumb and blind.

 

[Nikosandros]

Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain. It's good if an agreement can be reached, because Ukraine is being subject to destruction and massacre. But whatever concessions Kyiv will make, they will have been extorted by thugs.

 

[Zardnaar]

Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain. It's good if an agreement can be reached, because Ukraine is being subject to destruction and massacre. But whatever concessions Kyiv will make, they will have been extorted by thugs.

Well pre war Crimes essentially had the same sanctions that Russia has now.

I suspect if they want sanctions removed going back to 2013 borders and paying reparations would be the way to do it.

 

[Umbran]

Yes, sanctions against Russia must remain.

I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached. I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia. I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.

Which stinks, but that's my expectation at this point.

 

[billd91]

I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached. I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia. I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.

I suspect that's about right - and I fully expect that Putin and his media sock puppets will spin it as a successful campaign to force Ukraine to give up ambitions of joining NATO and the EU and a successful show of force to keep NATO from direct interference in Russian security concerns.
The next question will be about pressure on states like Latvia and Estonia - both of which are in NATO and which border core Russian territory. Then Poland and Lithuania, both of which border the Russian enclave that used to be East Prussia and are in NATO. And finally Russian threats against Bosnia and Herzegovina and their potential NATO relationship through their Serbian cronies, who are already causing problems.

 

[Zardnaar]

I expect that sanctions will lift when a peace agreement is reached. I don't expect that to be a full withdrawal and a return of Crimea - that would constitute an unacceptable loss of face for Russia. I will be unsurprised if Russia gets out of this still holding Crimea, a chunk of the Donbas region, and with an agreement that Ukraine will not seek to become part of NATO or the EU.

Which stinks, but that's my expectation at this point.

I pretty much expect that but with sanctions intact.

 

[Umbran]

The next question will be about pressure on states like Latvia and Estonia - both of which are in NATO and which border core Russian territory. Then Poland and Lithuania, both of which border the Russian enclave that used to be East Prussia and are in NATO.

After getting spanked by Ukraine, I don't expect Russia will have the hunger to take on a NATO member for some years.

 

[Guest 7034872]

After getting spanked by Ukraine, I don't expect Russia will have the hunger to take on a NATO member for some years.

Oh, man!--let's not even joke about that.