I assumed that attack rolls hit 50% of the time (and therefore halved average damage on attack spells) and assumed saving throws were made half of the time (for 75% damage on save spells).
Those assumptions are way off the mark from normal monster stats. To hit only 50% of the time at level 11, enemies would have to have AC 20 (or AC 18 and cover) on average. It takes a +6 saving throw bonus to save versus a spell half the time, or a +2 bonus with magic resistance. AC rarely gets over 18, especially at level 11, and both saving throws and AC vary widely. Assuming 75% when the real value is 60-90% is a minor adjustment for convenience, but assuming 50% when the real value is 60-80% seems like a major understatement. Just imagine if the warlock's single target numbers were 20-40% higher.