D&D 5E What if the D&D Core outsells the revised D&D Core?


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Clint_L

Hero
Strong book sales (the consistent sales of the PHB are undeniable) do not necessarily mean strong growth of the game. For example, if more people were quitting than joining, you could see book sales even as the overall numbers of players declined. I actually think that might be happening right now, and expect the game to contract a little bit. D&D has always been cyclical.

But if you think D&D has seen a boom over the past decade, just wait 30 years or so until all of 5e's new players hit middle age and many come back to D&D or start buying it for their kids. Of course, they will be playing it virtually from within their underwater domes, but still. Gonna be huge!
 

Strong book sales (the consistent sales of the PHB are undeniable) do not necessarily mean strong growth of the game. For example, if more people were quitting than joining, you could see book sales even as the overall numbers of players declined. I actually think that might be happening right now, and expect the game to contract a little bit. D&D has always been cyclical.
That's the part I wonder about. In a game like World of Warcraft, it's easy to measure player engagement by tracking subscription numbers since people who quit tend to unsubscribe. Blizzard can track how often a player logs in and what they spend their time doing to help determine what kind of content players like, so it's not that hard for them to gather useful metrics. It's nowhere near that simple for D&D. Just because someone bought a PHB to give the game a try doesn't mean they stuck around. Maybe they couldn't find a group, the groups they could find didn't play in a way they'd find fun, or life just got busy again and they don't have time. Just because WotC has sold x million copies of the PHB doesn't mean there are x million players currently playing on a regular basis.

There ARE other ways to help such as tracking accounts in Roll20 or other VTT or actual log-ins to DDB, but that only helps figure out the online portion of the audience and would rely on multiple companies sharing their numbers which isn't going to happen. But how many people play in person? There's no way to know.
 


ECMO3

Hero
It’s not free money, as the stuff I paid for on Beyond was a one-time payment and they still have to pay the costs of storage and bandwidth.

I learned my lesson about digital back with 3E tools. I’m still willing to use it, but support doesn’t last forever, and the value of keeping it - and software/hardware support to keep it running - degrades quickly.

It is free money, the advertisements and sales on DNDB will more than pay for the storage, even if you are one of the many players who never purchase anything. Sure they may close your account or shift to a different platform and you and other "owners" may need to buy again but it will be available IMO.

I think you can still buy a digital copy of any 3E rulebook you want.
 

TerraDave

5ever, or until 2024
I have to double check the source, and I haven't read through the whole thread...

1e books were kept in print for a while after 2e launched. they were just too lucrative to stop.

Its the even edition curse, and yes its starting to happen. 1/6/5.5 won't exactly tank, but boy could it underperform. Eventually heads would roll, changes would be made, the IP could be sold.

WotC does have time for a course correction. But if things go this way through 2024, it will be interesting.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
I have to double check the source, and I haven't read through the whole thread...

1e books were kept in print for a while after 2e launched. they were just too lucrative to stop.

Its the even edition curse, and yes its starting to happen. 1/6/5.5 won't exactly tank, but boy could it underperform. Eventually heads would roll, changes would be made, the IP could be sold.

WotC does have time for a course correction. But if things go this way through 2024, it will be interesting.

It's like the Stat Trek thing but in reverse?
 



darjr

I crit!
What would you do if you were WotC?

What do you think WotC would do?

It just struck me, what if WotC revises the core books but the originals continue to sell like they do now? What happens if they outperform the new core books? What happens if they out preform them a lot?
I think this question is more relevant now than when I first posted it.
 

Scribe

Legend
I think this question is more relevant now than when I first posted it.

I'm not sure it will be, to the masses.

The masses of players are not connected, not hyper over exposed to the content online, as we are.

To them, it will just be a cool new book(s) for the only RPG they know/play.

Its pretty weird though.

To some, 1D&D is doing nothing, so why bother as some are already over 5e.
To some, 1D&D is doing nothing, so its great, because 5e is great.
To some, 1D&D is doing too much, and its ruining 5e.
To some, 1D&D is doing so much, and its fixing 5e.

I cannot wrap my head around 2 or 3 of those positions, but I believe in D&D having a critical mass, and just like every edition of 40K, it will be replaced, and people will buy the new books.
 



overgeeked

B/X Known World
Still basically the same as before. WotC will stop publishing the 2014 core books. WotC will start publishing the 2024 core books.

The number of 2014 core books will be that set number, never to increase. As people grow tired of 5E or switch to 5.5E, they might sell their 2014 books to the secondary market. People that continue playing 5E will likely hang onto their books, so those copies will not go into the secondary market unless someone dies and their family sells them or gives them away. The prices of the 2014 books will rise a bit as copies are worn and used and the price for new or like new will increase even more as there will be fewer and fewer of those. But there will never be any more new 2014 books printed by WotC. They have no way of accurately tracking the numbers of secondary market sales.

Meanwhile, WotC will pump out a few million copies of the 2024 core books. Same as every other edition change. Momentum and being the market leader will carry them through.

So it's literally not a thing that can happen.
 

DEFCON 1

Legend
Supporter
I do not see the point in trying to speculate what WotC would do, since I am not WotC. I will be playing happily with whatever books I feel like playing with, so why would I possibly want to make myself "upset" by putting myself in the mindset of this other company having to deal with poor sales of a book I published?

Why would I do that to myself? Especially when it serves no purpose? Are people just looking for ways to get themselves worked up?
 

Mirtek

Hero
It's not going to die when we are at peak fantasy tv and movies though.
But are we or are we already past the peak with too many of those and them thus starting to fail meeting their corporate expectations?

I just managed to finally catch up with the MCU (well one last episode of She Hulk plus the new Ant Man) and have yet to watch a single episode of Rings of Power, Willow, Blood & Bone, Wheel of Time and I believe there is one more that I can't even remember.

I heard at least one or two of them failed to get as many viewers as hoped and are already even cancelled or uncertain of whether they'll get a new season (will check before starting to watch any of them)

Maybe it's just me, but I am definately oversaturated in regard to fantasy shows


PS: The missing one is not Witcher. I started and ended it mid season 1. I just did not like it. Mostly the incoherent time lines drove me away.
 
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