When did WotC D&D "Jump the Shark"?

[AbdulAlhazred]

From my perspective D&D has been around for 37 years now (and I guess I've been playing it pretty much all that time with a few breaks). There have been times when the game has changed directions somewhat, times when the owners have sort of drifted along, times when they have been highly energetic, times when they've put out high quality stuff, and times when they've put out lower quality stuff or less stuff. The game has continued to exist in all of these various times and has always fulfilled its basic purpose.

I just don't see where it is today as a big deal one way or the other. In fact I think overall it is in a pretty good place. The existing edition of the game is very solid, there's a LOT of material supporting it, and that material is mostly pretty high quality. Beyond that the game has actually advanced pretty rapidly overall into the digital realm. WotC moved a very big leap forward with 4e and DDI. Looking at it from any kind of wide perspective this has been quite remarkable. 4e itself is only 3 years old, same for DDI. In the perspective of 37 years of D&D this is a relatively short period of time. Even if we put the worst possible spin on where WotC is right now I just don't see it as a big deal. D&D is strong. D&D will continue. D&D will continue to evolve. Maybe some of the things being done with it now are dead ends. So what? People get way too focused on whatever is happening this month or this year and lose perspective on the big picture. Heck, any of you would have peed your pants to have the DDI we have right now today 5 years ago. Quit comparing things to hypotheticals that have never existed. It is a niche product. We can all dream of what the possibilities would be in a grand fantasy world where D&D had a zillion bucks to spend to do everything everyone could possibly dream of. It never has been that way and it never will be.

Beyond that how much of an actual difference does it make to people playing the game what is going on in WotC HQ right now? We all have plenty of good solid 4e material to use and some very nice and convenient online tools. If they spend a year or two slacking off some and releasing stuff you're not that interested in, well it isn't the first time that's happened and we all just kept on enjoying our games. All the angst just seems not worth it to me. I just don't care. I'm going to keep running my games. I have better stuff than I have ever had before overall and I could hardly be happier. Sure it is fun to nitpick the latest splatbook or whatever, but in the long run none of that matters much.

D&D jumped the shark, there is no shark.

 

[Dragonblade]

Personally, I think the phrase "jumped the shark" has jumped the shark. Its an internet meme that was clever once but now its become tired and cliche.

As far as 4e goes, I do myself drifting away from it due to increasing frustration over some of WotC's moves to consolidate everything online. I don't want an online RPG thats stuck behind a paywall. I want to buy a solid line of hardcovers that support a tabletop game that doesn't require an internet connection or a subscription to play. But overall I feel the game itself is pretty solid. But unless WotC starts putting out more hardcovers like Heroes of Shadow, I'm not really spending anymore money. I already own all the 4e books and am pretty satisfied with that collection. If 5e goes completely online, then I probably won't follow.

I like what Paizo is doing with Pathfinder at least in terms of keeping the torch alive for old school tabletop play. But there are elements of 3.5 design that I wish they would jettison. Still, I find myself buying their books more and more frequently, mostly because unlike 4e books which are pretty dry, the Pathfinder books are enjoyable to read in their own right even if I don't play.

 

[Ampersand999]

The problem it seems to me is that Wizards of the Coast's situation isn't jumping sharks. It's more like is that the light at the end of the tunnel or an on coming train?

By the way, from a business perspective, Hasbro had its quarterly 10-K report last week. And it missed the general "Street" consensus of estimates. How much of it came from Wizards we'll probably never know, but I fully expect more firings, cuts, and possible spin-off until the bottom line improves for Hasbro. And where the problems are, that's where the cuts will continue. So is Wizards a liability for Hasbro? That's the question.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

The problem it seems to me is that Wizards of the Coast's situation isn't jumping sharks. It's more like is that the light at the end of the tunnel or an on coming train?

By the way, from a business perspective, Hasbro had its quarterly 10-K report last week. And it missed the general "Street" consensus of estimates. How much of it came from Wizards we'll probably never know, but I fully expect more firings, cuts, and possible spin-off until the bottom line improves for Hasbro. And where the problems are, that's where the cuts will continue. So is Wizards a liability for Hasbro? That's the question.

Without knowing the performance of the unit that 4e is part of we have no way of knowing. OTOH Hasbro is a big company and they may not see massive cutting as the proper response, and they have resources to avoid doing that if they don't want to.

Remember, Hasbro is the type of company that, while they have many perennial products, is used to constantly investing in its properties, creating new things, etc. Toys go in and out of fashion constantly. They may well not be terribly quick to disband R&D groups that are going to provide what sells next Christmas, even if they have to operate in the red for a while. They are more likely to look carefully at the management of groups where they missed having a good return last year and asking if those groups are working on the right thing.

So, it might mean changes in 4e group's management, but unless they suddenly decide the whole product is hopeless, can't make money, and not worth supporting anymore it is likely that overall things won't change a lot (they are already cut down a lot from 3 years ago after all). They might just change the product mix for 4e. In fact oddly enough, they already seem to have done that...

I'll take a wild guess and say that not much will change in 4e land until 2012, but that they may be doing less ambitious projects and consolidating things. So DDI will probably get a lot of attention, but we probably won't see a bunch of other print products announced. Maybe one or two, but they won't go back to 2009's crazy release schedule. Nor will they go back and start releasing more Power * books.

 

[Mercurius]

D&D jumped the shark, there is no shark.

I appreciate your "Zen" attitude, Abdul, but don't confuse being interested in a topic with freaking out about it or taking it personally. Ultimately, yeah, it doesn't really matter - I have a whole bookshelf of RPG materials, more than enough for a lifetime, and if not I can always create what I want. I started this thread, and other threads of a similar nature, because it is interesting to me and I enjoy "state of the industry" conversations.

The problem it seems to me is that Wizards of the Coast's situation isn't jumping sharks. It's more like is that the light at the end of the tunnel or an on coming train?

By the way, from a business perspective, Hasbro had its quarterly 10-K report last week. And it missed the general "Street" consensus of estimates. How much of it came from Wizards we'll probably never know, but I fully expect more firings, cuts, and possible spin-off until the bottom line improves for Hasbro. And where the problems are, that's where the cuts will continue. So is Wizards a liability for Hasbro? That's the question.

Good point. It just goes to show you: never make Faustian bargains .

I'll take a wild guess and say that not much will change in 4e land until 2012, but that they may be doing less ambitious projects and consolidating things. So DDI will probably get a lot of attention, but we probably won't see a bunch of other print products announced. Maybe one or two, but they won't go back to 2009's crazy release schedule. Nor will they go back and start releasing more Power * books.

I think this is right on. They seem like they're in a bit of a holding pattern, either because they are developing something big and new (5E, a major renovation of DDI, etc), or because they are trying to determine what direction to take; probably both.

 

[malraux]

FWIW, they have been working to churn out a fair amount of product, just not the traditional products we're used to. The board games have pulled some resources, the VTT is taking some resources, etc.

Now, for me, I'm somewhat in favor of this. The books for me have a strong diminishing utility. I won't buy another power book, PHB, or item book. I might get more setting books, but maybe not. So they either try to sell stuff to fewer and fewer people, or work on expanding the brand in some way without new books.

 

[Herschel]

Which is a good way to look at it except it doesn't account for predictions of armageddon.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

I appreciate your "Zen" attitude, Abdul, but don't confuse being interested in a topic with freaking out about it or taking it personally. Ultimately, yeah, it doesn't really matter - I have a whole bookshelf of RPG materials, more than enough for a lifetime, and if not I can always create what I want. I started this thread, and other threads of a similar nature, because it is interesting to me and I enjoy "state of the industry" conversations.

Yeah, I think I would enjoy them more if I had some real numbers, or some level of view into what the different companies are thinking and up to. It is fun to think about, but then no new insight really appears. Not that we all don't try, there's just nothing to go on.

I think this is right on. They seem like they're in a bit of a holding pattern, either because they are developing something big and new (5E, a major renovation of DDI, etc), or because they are trying to determine what direction to take; probably both.

Yeah, my idea is it isn't a big new project because they really did get cut back at the end of '09 pretty hard. If they were really working on 5e I don't think they have the staff for that. I also think it would be a terrible business idea and I figure they're smarter than me, so I figure they won't make a terrible mistake, lol.

Mostly, I think they sold 4e to Hasbro as a big deal and Hasbro directed as much resources their way as they could use. The result was a good product but they mismanaged the digital side of it at first, the economy started to tank, and 4e didn't sit so well with some of the fan base. I think it IS successful, but I kind of suspect the managers that were running things at that time got in deep because they had a lot of rope (yay more mixed metaphores). By the end of '09 corporate's patience had worn thin, they cut them back severely and told them to refocus, replaced some of the management, etc. Since then they've been moving ahead as much and fast as they can with what they have, but basically you've got a small crew that has been told to do both 4e and related board game products etc, Encounters, AND hammer out a lot of major DDI improvements. They're just plain under resourced and trying to work out how to get the work of 30 people done with 12.

 

[Gryph]

Not to be snarky (well too snarky), the ramp was built and shark penned with the decision to make everything core that is published in DDI and supplements. The boat wasn't fired up until PHB3 and the racial books for Dragonborn and Tieflings.

For me, PHB3 marked the last book I bought from WoTC sight unseen. I have purchased a fair amount of material since, but not all, and every quarter of the release schedule I purchase less. Honestly, the new player options are so increasingly niche in their appeal I feel the price/performance ratio is seriously lacking (insert disclaimer about opinion, etc...).

 

[Fifth Element]

No, but there are objective standards for capacity. There's a pretty good case that the new CB is less capable than the old one. Moreover, there's a solid case that the monster builder is worse currently than it was before the buggy update.

Sure, but capacity is not the only aspect of goodness here. Depending on how much value you place on capacity as opposed to some other aspect, you arrive at different aggregate values.

Some aspects can be objectively measured, I'm sure. But not all, and that leads us back to personal preference.