I'll preface my answer to this question by saying that I switched to 3rd edition (and, indeed, was eager to) because the previews I read in Dragon magazine indicated many changes were things I was already doing through house rules. Plus, I felt the "flavor" hadn't changed significantly. Also, I was not really an active gamer at that point, so it was much easier to switch from that standpoint.
The first strike (for me) against 4E was when the license to publish Dragon and Dungeon was yanked from Paizo and the print magazines were canceled. That really put a bad taste in my mouth towards WotC as I had been collecting these magazines since the mid-80s; I grew up with them and they were, in my opinion, of excellent quality.
It took me a year to make the switch from 3rd edition to 3.5, largely because I felt it was unnecessary and a money-grab by WotC. For the most part I felt the changes helped, but it was pretty close on the heels of 3rd edition (based on the time between 2nd and 3rd edition). Plus, I just really don't like this half-version number stuff...feels too software-ish.
I have invested over $1,000 in various supplements for 3rd edition and I have yet to explore even half of that content. From what I've read, 4th edition will be sufficiently different that conversion will be time consuming. Time is a commodity that is very precious to me.
I don't like the flavor changes that are being made with the new edition. I think feat names need to be short and descriptive, like Power Attack not Singing Wyvern Strike (I made that up, I'm sure, but you get my point). If I can't tell what a feat does just be hearing the name, then that's something else I have to learn, again taking time. Plus, when you start implying a certain feel by naming the feats, that makes it harder to integrate them into a homebrew setting that is radically different from the default setting. Sure, you can change the fluff, but then you have to spend more time noting all of those changes and disseminating them to your players.
Several things are being "fixed" that I don't feel are broken. I don't have a problem with 1-2-1 diagonal movement, nor do I have a problem with grapple. The concepts aren't that difficult and some of the aids I've picked up over the years (various Battleboxes, etc.) make them even easier to use. Things like this feel like "changes for the sake of change." Plus, several things that I felt were sacred cows were slaughtered, like gnomes and bards...I don't like the class name "Warlord" (that's more a title to me, not a profession), I don't think Warlocks should be a core class. I don't agree with a lot of the design decisions, and feel I had no input. At least I got to fill out a survey before the switch from 1st ed. to 2nd ed. After leaving GenCon '07, I had a VERY strong feeling that a lot of the changes in 4E were being done to pander to the RPGA players (whether or not that's true is immaterial, but that's the impression I got). I don't like the RPGA style of play.
I also felt the WotC 4E announcement video was very condescending and the first push of the marketing of 4E was very strongly in the Wrong-Bad-Fun category, if you actually were having fun playing 3.5. I got the sense that I was being told that 3.5 was OK, but it now sucks because 4E is coming out and I'm a loser for not immediately jumping on the bandwagon. As someone who has spent a good portion of my disposable income with this company, I don't appreciate that. Plus, the French Guy in the video said it's the same game. Sure, it's the same, except they're taking out Gnomes and Bards. Except Grapple is changing. Except the magic system is changing. Except the default setting is changing. Except, except, except. With that many exceptions, it's not the same. That's blatent false advertising, in my opinion. Reprinting the PHB with new art and a new cover would be "the same game." (Obviously I'm way too literal and anal-retentive to be a marketing person...that's why I didn't major in Journalism or Marketing).
I feel there is a great deal of doublespeak, and part of this might just come from reading too many message boards. I'm told I can play D&D with just the books, but only by subscribing to DDI will I get the full experience? Why would I not want to get the full experience? That's not really playing the same game, is it? (You might argue that it is, but these are my thoughts, feelings, and opinions). Plus, I'm not a big fan of the subscriber model for extra content, especially with the way it looks like things are going to be nickel-and-dimed. Granted I pay for an MMORPG, but I can play that every day (or nearly so), and I know my money is needed for server maintenance and to pay programmers and graphic artists to build additional content. I know my money towards DDI will be spent similarly, but then again, I play D&D once every two weeks at best, in my basement, around a table, with my friends, not with a computer (except for mood music playback and to access the SRD and PDFs).
Clearly, I'm not the target audience for 4E: I play too infrequently and have way too much invested in 3E to want to give it up. I never did like the Dungeonpunk look of 3E, and I don't care much for the look of 4E. I don't have the time or energy to convert my current settings and adventures to be usable with 4E. There's lot of other systems that have been spawned from 3.0/3.5 (Mutants & Masterminds, d20 Modern, Star Wars d20), plus other games I want to play (Savage Worlds) and I have a hard enough time getting people to play those; I don't need another version of D&D in there as a distraction.
4E might be an awesome game. I might even like it mechanically, even I don't like the fluff. But still, it takes work to strip out the fluff. If someone gives me the books as a gift, I certainly won't toss them out. If people I like to game with run games of it at GenCon, I'll almost certainly play. But I'm in no rush to switch; I don't feel a new edition is called for at this time. I will admit, certain types of high-level play is a pain in the butt with 3.5, but I think a lot of that comes from the types of adventures that have been written for high-level play.
I'm not on the fence. I'm looking over the fence towards 4E and seeing someplace I don't really want to go. I was really excited over Star Wars Saga edition until I read about the changes that were made and I just lost all enthusiasm. By many reports, SWSE was a mechanics preview of 4E. I just don't like enough of what I see.
Maybe I'll strip-mine 4E for ideas (like new undead turning rules), but I'll stick with 3.5 until I at least get in at least one more Ptolus campaign, maybe run Shackled City and Age of Worms and Savage Tide, and get to play in or run an Eberron campaign. I'm sure the industry will leave me behind, but that's OK. We don't ALL have to play the same version to all be Gamers.
JediSoth