will 4.0 succeed?

[Dice4Hire]

AS things stand now

4E will be successful, maybe a big success.
DI will not be successful, at best it will be a mediocre income stream.

I think 4E has potential, all I have seen makes it look like a well-designed game, and pretty playable (from the umpteen demo reports I have read)

But will it bring in the old school crowd. Almost definitely not. Mostly it will get its players form 3.5. Hopefully a lot of new players, but very very few who have gotten off the 3.X bandwagon in preference to older editions or derivative games.

 

[DragonLancer]

I think that to start with 4E will do well, but only a little way down the road people will realise that the changes to the system have stripped it of everything that is D&D and will cease playing it.

I don't wish the game ill but I can see a bleak future for D&D under the new system.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I think that to start with 4E will do well, but only a little way down the road people will realise that the changes to the system have stripped it of everything that is D&D and will cease playing it.

I think
a) It doesn't matter if it's the "TrueD&D", because there is no true D&D (well, diaglo will object). This should almost fall under the "No Religion" rule...
b) it only matters if the game is fun to play. That can depend on people preferences, but the fundamental aspects of the game can affect this a lot, too. And I really believe that 4E will not be worse at that then 3E.

 

[Engilbrand]

This constant notion that 4E isn't "True D&D" is retarded. It doesn't make any sense.
Most people don't care about a lot of the changes. They don't care that some things (not that I can actually name them) have been "stripped".
I already have 5 brand new people who are going to get involved. They've read a bit about it. They've seen the pictures. 4E might not be a "flashy computer game", but it sure as hell is a flashy game. I think that the art alone will get some people to pick it up. After reading it and seeing how easy it is to play, they might buy it.
I love Barbarians. Am I bummed that they won't be out until next year? Yeah. But I also love Binders. And the Incarnum classes. I hope to see them, too. I'm fine with what's out right now, and I think that a lot of people are probably the same way.
Most D&D players don't care. Most people coming into the game don't even know what came before. I played some of the older computer games. I started at the very end of 3.0. I've been playing for 6 years. I can't think of anything about 4E that is worse than 3.5. The mechanics are better. The fluff is... FLUFF!!!! I rarely used that to begin with.
By having PoL as a default, they're simplifying what people need to learn and remember. That's going to help new players. And it's the new players that will keep this edition going.

 

[Aus_Snow]

This constant notion that 4E isn't "True D&D" is retarded irreconcilable with your own notions. It doesn't make any sense to you.

FIFY.

Most people don't care about a lot of the changes.

Most poeple do care about a lot of the changes.

Either one or neither of those statements is true, and damned if you or I, or perhaps anyone else around, can prove a case whichever way.

So, IOW, it might pay to ratchet down the hyperbole.

 

[zoroaster100]

I think 4.0 will be successful. But in any case, I'm pretty sure it will be successful for me and my games.

 

[Tetsubo]

This constant notion that 4E isn't "True D&D" is retarded. It doesn't make any sense.
Most people don't care about a lot of the changes. They don't care that some things (not that I can actually name them) have been "stripped".
I already have 5 brand new people who are going to get involved. They've read a bit about it. They've seen the pictures. 4E might not be a "flashy computer game", but it sure as hell is a flashy game. I think that the art alone will get some people to pick it up. After reading it and seeing how easy it is to play, they might buy it.
I love Barbarians. Am I bummed that they won't be out until next year? Yeah. But I also love Binders. And the Incarnum classes. I hope to see them, too. I'm fine with what's out right now, and I think that a lot of people are probably the same way.
Most D&D players don't care. Most people coming into the game don't even know what came before. I played some of the older computer games. I started at the very end of 3.0. I've been playing for 6 years. I can't think of anything about 4E that is worse than 3.5. The mechanics are better. The fluff is... FLUFF!!!! I rarely used that to begin with.
By having PoL as a default, they're simplifying what people need to learn and remember. That's going to help new players. And it's the new players that will keep this edition going.

If you change a system of rules enough, eventually they are no longer the same system of rules. Some of us feel that 4E does that to D&D. Changes enough of the rules so that it is no longer D&D. And in this case makes those changes so that they can generate new revenue at the expensive of their core demographic. Typical short sighted business model. Screw the consumer today in the hopes of getting new consumers tomorrow. Marketing at its finest.

I once saw a comedian do a joke about George Washington. He told the audience that he owned the axe that young George used to chop down the famous cherry tree. He paused. Then he mentioned that he had to replace the head at one point. Pause. *And* replace the wooden handle at a later date. *But* it occupied the same *space* as the original axe.

To me, that is 4E. It occupies the same place that D&D *used* to occupy. But it isn't D&D.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

If you change a system of rules enough, eventually they are no longer the same system of rules. Some of us feel that 4E does that to D&D. Changes enough of the rules so that it is no longer D&D. And in this case makes those changes so that they can generate new revenue at the expensive of their core demographic. Typical short sighted business model. Screw the consumer today in the hopes of getting new consumers tomorrow. Marketing at its finest.

Another way to see it is to say that if you change a system long enough, it might become actually a lot better then it's original form, and that this was the goal of the game in the first place, and is the most important thing.
Or that D&D 4 is a typical example of trying to create a system that is just simply better in many ways, even if some of the changes might feel extreme...

Judging by the "Is D&D 4 Retro" thread, 4E does contain a lot of elements that lead us back to previous editions, while also changing a lot of things from previous editions, and it only matters which part of the things it kept are in your personal definition of "what makes D&D", and what are in the part of things that were changed...

 

[Ashrem78]

Yes it will succed but like someone else mentioned, I don't know if it will meet hasbros definition of success

 

[NiTessine]

My prediction is that 4E will be successful for an RPG, but not wildly successful. I don't see it being much more popular than 3E was, really. The marketing has been pretty horrible.

It remains to be seen whether this will be successful enough for Hasbro.