D&D 5E WotC will likely be making a dedicated Psion class, as per recent tweets

Ashrym

Legend
5e hasn't roughly doubled the number of people who have ever played D&D by appealing strictly and exclusively to Next playtesters.

There's actually little reason to think the system, or even the content, of a given D&D book has anything to do with driving it's sales.

What the content of 5e has done is appease the segment of it's hard-core cult following that's willing to actively vilify it in public. That's important. To marketing.

It's not just Next play testers. There was research prior to starting the playtest and data pulled from other media. Do you have that data and market analytics?

The latest trends we were given from WotC was growth year over year and over 40 million players world wide. My stance is their marketing and research worked because they obviously did that and they obviously have a lot of success at the moment.

The opposing argument is they got lucky because things? If someone want to make a claim like that I want to see facts supporting it. Otherwise it looks like talking out of the opposite orifice of one's mouth. ;)
 

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Zardnaar

Legend
It's not just Next play testers. There was research prior to starting the playtest and data pulled from other media. Do you have that data and market analytics?

The latest trends we were given from WotC was growth year over year and over 40 million players world wide. My stance is their marketing and research worked because they obviously did that and they obviously have a lot of success at the moment.

The opposing argument is they got lucky because things? If someone want to make a claim like that I want to see facts supporting it. Otherwise it looks like talking out of the opposite orifice of one's mouth. ;)

40 million was all players all editions ever.
 


Zardnaar

Legend
Do you have a breakdown?

No but the 5E number is likely less than 2/3rds if that.

6 million players used to get thrown around and using the RPG market size it's probably 50-100% more than that.

I'm guessing they have attach rates per book sold. Eg each starter set has 5 players, phb something similar.

That doesn't include collectors, people who have multiple copies etc.

They're doing Golden age type numbers but have kept it up for 3or 4 years, Golden age lasted 2 maybe 3 years.
 

So to be clear, the long playtest with several variations on rules and surveys from the testers because that's how WotC was gathering data listening to players is less likely than the list of unsubstantiated statements you gave?

Do you have market analytics to back that up?

The game became popular because of what WotC did, then money came in.

Nothing I said invalidates your view on the matter. In fact, I'm of the opinion that the success of 5e is related to a sum of factors, which include the things I mentioned (based on the opinion of people more enlightened on the matter than me) but also includes the effectiveness of their development strategy.

Still, all of that is 100% compatible with statements like "people who like the tactical aspect of the game should have a functioning rules module by now" or "psionics have a strong enough legacy in the game to deserve 30 pages of its own subsystem in a future book".

Unless you believe they're mutually exclusive. If that's the case, more power to you. That's not a discussion I want to have, though. I'm willing to debate if 5e, as written, supports different playing styles. Regarding the reasons for its fabulous success, 5e could be a bestseller because there's a fire giant in the cover of the PHB and people love fire giants. For me, it would be the same, as I'm not trying to find a way to outsell it.
 

Tony Vargas

Legend
No but the 5E number is likely less than 2/3rds if that.

6 million players used to get thrown around and using the RPG market size it's probably 50-100% more than that.
Sure, but that was current gamers at a point in time.

The 40 million number was had ever played D&D, and a lot of that has got to have come from the fad years. Somehow, I had the impression that number had been closer to half that prior to 5e taking off. But, it must've been something I heard this millennium, and I've no confidence in that short-term a memory, these days. ;)

They're doing Golden age type numbers but have kept it up for 3or 4 years, Golden age lasted 2 maybe 3 years.
Depending on how you count it, anything from '74 through '93, down to, y'know, just the peak of the fad, which may have been '83?
 

Ashrym

Legend
No but the 5E number is likely less than 2/3rds if that.

6 million players used to get thrown around and using the RPG market size it's probably 50-100% more than that.

I'm guessing they have attach rates per book sold. Eg each starter set has 5 players, phb something similar.

That doesn't include collectors, people who have multiple copies etc.

They're doing Golden age type numbers but have kept it up for 3or 4 years, Golden age lasted 2 maybe 3 years.

The reasons given were growth rate over the last 5 years and the translation of the system into more foreign languages. I don't have number either, but the trend would coming from the most recent edition based on those statements.

I doubt previous editions are getting translated. Just using an online sales calculator based on BSR for Amazon estimates the PHB at about 1440 copies a day just by that one outlet alone base on the current ranking.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
Nothing I said invalidates your view on the matter. In fact, I'm of the opinion that the success of 5e is related to a sum of factors, which include the things I mentioned (based on the opinion of people more enlightened on the matter than me) but also includes the effectiveness of their development strategy.

Still, all of that is 100% compatible with statements like "people who like the tactical aspect of the game should have a functioning rules module by now" or "psionics have a strong enough legacy in the game to deserve 30 pages of its own subsystem in a future book".

Unless you believe they're mutually exclusive. If that's the case, more power to you. That's not a discussion I want to have, though. I'm willing to debate if 5e, as written, supports different playing styles. Regarding the reasons for its fabulous success, 5e could be a bestseller because there's a fire giant in the cover of the PHB and people love fire giants. For me, it would be the same, as I'm not trying to find a way to outsell it.
Sure, but that was current gamers at a point in time.

The 40 million number was had ever played D&D, and a lot of that has got to have come from the fad years. Somehow, I had the impression that number had been closer to half that prior to 5e taking off. But, it must've been something I heard this millennium, and I've no confidence in that short-term a memory, these days. ;)

Depending on how you count it, anything from '74 through '93, down to, y'know, just the peak of the fad, which may have been '83?

Peak was 83 but 81 and 82 were also good.

84 was a 30% drop but that's still a lot relative to most years.

They probably guesstimate based on attach rates idk. We have 3pb, 2starter sets, our group of 7 players has around 5 or 6phb.
I think 5E biggest factors for success are.

1. It's reasonably simple.
2. Mature social media that's positive
3. Amazon
 
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JiffyPopTart

Bree-Yark
also, I have a hard time understanding how something could be a failure to deliver if it was never in scope to begin with. Honda don’t fail to deliver LCD screens in the back of my Accord because they never had that in their initial plans anyway, no matter how much I would have liked them.

How about if Honda was redesigning the new Accord from the ground up and said "We don't want to spend too much time on the stereo because not everyone listens to music while they drive, but we are going to add the stereo in (along with the other popular missing options) after we get the new streamlined basic Accord out to the general public?"

Then the new Accord sold like hotcakes and EVERYONE was in in love with it. They LOVE the simplicity of a streamlined simple to drive Accord without confusing buttons and displays they are never going to use. You love it too, but you want your stereo option. So you patiently wait because the stereo will make the new Accord even better. Soon it become apparent that the release of new features to add to your Accord is going to be slow, so you figure you might have to wait awhile.

Over the next 5 years Honda works on tons of new features, but never that stereo that you were hoping for. Eventually they send you a boombox you can put in your trunk to sort of hear music, but its not really the same. "I guess some music is better than none", you tell yourself, but you realize you aren't happy with the boombox in the trunk and its really NOT a stereo.

Then a designer for Honda makes a post on social media. It's rather cryptic (and hasn't been clarified) but it could be construed as saying "You know what....stereos were never really all that popular, so chances are the boombox in the trunk is the best we are going to give you.

Or maybe they don't even give you a boombox for your trunk and they just never mention stereos again.

So you go online to complain that you really wanted a stereo and not this boombox because it was implied that it was coming when they were designing the new Streamlined Accord. To this you get endless variations of the same three replies.

1. I love stereos too! I wish I had something better than a boombox in the trunk too and I think Honda should release more missing gadgets and less paint options.

2. Streamlined Accords are selling like hotcakes. Obviously Accords don't need stereos because they sell just fine without them and making one now would pretty much bankrupt Honda.

3. If you want a stereo now you can get one from Alibaba. It's not made by Honda, may or may not have been tested to work well in a Streamlined Accord, and nobody else is going to be familiar with it if you have a question, but its there and just as good as an official one.

*

The #1 (by far) most distinct takeaway I had from when the Next playtest was morphing into the 5e game was the idea.....that was explicitly used as a selling point for 5e....that the PHB was going to smooth out the game and make it simple for the masses to pick up so that the game could gain traction. This obviously happened. THEN (and this is the important part) they would add back in the things removed in the streamlining as optional "modules" that you could plug into your game to make it work the way you want. That way people could play the game they wanted by just using the streamlined basic game or the extra bits they wanted to add to their campaign.

It is now 5 years later and very clearly this design principle has not happened. If that's what WotC wants to to do because they want to rake in the dollars...I can't fault them for that decision. I would probably do the same thing. The fact remains, however, that the goal as mentioned 5 years ago seems to be unmet and perhaps forgotten if "It doesn't sell well so we aren't going to devote time to it." is a determining factor in what gets greenlit.
 

Zardnaar

Legend
The reasons given were growth rate over the last 5 years and the translation of the system into more foreign languages. I don't have number either, but the trend would coming from the most recent edition based on those statements.

I doubt previous editions are getting translated. Just using an online sales calculator based on BSR for Amazon estimates the PHB at about 1440 copies a day just by that one outlet alone base on the current ranking.

On some days yeah, early on sales etc. Not you can hit millions of sales on a few hundred each day.

They've averaged for example 160k starter sets in the USA a year. Throw in worldwide sales that will be higher. I suspect a huge % us USA sales.

PHB is probably more than that since we know it's a best seller. They've probably sold several hundred thousand a year on top of that 160k. Two adventure books a year probably 100k+ and yeah the RPG market size starts to add up.
 

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