I am certain they spent a lot more time and money on figuring that out, I am not convinced that means that they are not miscalculating here. 4e seems like a good counterpoint to the claim that they always know what they are doing
Also, I used a direct quote from an interview (the rising tide bit). They believed it then. If they still believed that, they would not change the OGL
Internally, 4e was known to be "not what it was intended to be" from the start. Joseph Batten murdered his wife and committed suicide. This locked the devs out of the software and tools being developed for 4e, which it was supposed to launch with. They had to retool the rules to be a standalone product without the intended accompanying electronic portion of the game, in a very short period of time.
The GSL was probably related to that topic at the time as well (apparently it was written before this all happened). The electronic tool was likely originally a key component to why a 3rd party developer would want to sign on to the stricter GSL, as it probably was supposed to include access to the digital end of the products.
None of this was " what they were doing" as planned. They certainly made an error in not delaying the product and taking a look at all the aspects that needed to be altered to make it all work, which likely meant either going back to the OGL or re-developing the electronic portion before launch. They also needed a playtest of this alternate version of the game. But reports are things were a bit chaotic and their backs were to a deadline set outside of WOTC.
I am not so sure it's a good example of a counterpoint to them knowing or not knowing what they are doing. These 5e to 5.5e circumstances to not appear similar to the 3.5e to 4e circumstances in terms of "knowing what they are doing."