Changeover Poll

[DaveMage]

But who will be told?

Sales numbers, so far as I know, are only given to WotC. So unless they announce them, or unless somebody at a given retail store lets something slip (which'd only mean something for that store) we're not really going to know just how well the second round of Core Rulebooks sell.

Distributors will know. Distributors talk.

(And while distributors don't talk to us, they do talk to those in the industry, and word gets around.)

Will we know all the numbers? No. But we will certainly have a basis for comparison amongst some distributors from PHB1 to PHB2.

Paizo sends out e-mails that include their sales rankings of "Top Products from Other Companies". When 4E first came out, 4E stuff from WotC was on that list. I haven't seen a single WotC product there in quite some time. (Though, in fairness, I may have missed it, but I do look for it.)

If PHB2 sales are a dud, the game might be in serious trouble. On the other hand, if they provide an energizing spark, then the game may be just fine.

 

[Drkfathr1]

I think the first sure sign of a problem would be a massive marketing survey surge this summer, with questions along the lines of:

What do you not like? What would you change? What DO you like?

Followed shortly by 4.5.

 

[garyh]

Paizo sends out e-mails that include their sales rankings of "Top Products from Other Companies". When 4E first came out, 4E stuff from WotC was on that list. I haven't seen a single WotC product there in quite some time. (Though, in fairness, I may have missed it, but I do look for it.)

I'm guessing those are sales made by Paizo. And while Paizo stocks 4e stuff, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if folks shopping at Paizo mostly buy Paizo/3.x stuff. Why would someone looking to buy 4e stuff go to the site of a company making their own 3.5e product to do so? Especially since Amazon is so much cheaper if you're already online.

EDIT: I'm still on Paizo's e-mail list from my Dragon subscriber days, and I just checked my last e-mail from them. This is the list you're referring to:

Top Selling Products From Other Companies
1. The Order of the Stick: War & XPs
Giant in the Playground Games

2. Pathfinder Dice Set: Rise of the Runelords
Q-Workshop

3. KOBOLD Guide to Game Design—Volume 1: Adventures
Open Design

4. Talisman: The Reaper Expansion
Fantasy Flight Games

5. Talisman—Revised 4th Edition Upgrade Pack
Fantasy Flight Games

6. Penumbra: Fantasy Bestiary (d20)
Atlas Games

7. Enemy Chocolatier
Cheapass Games

8. The Order of the Stick: On the Origin of PCs
Giant in the Playground Games

9. The Order of the Stick: Start of Darkness
Giant in the Playground Games

10. Pathfinder: Merisiel (Iconic Female Elf Rogue)
Crocodile Games

That HAS to be for Paizo sales only. I mean, I love OotS, but it certainly wouldn't rank in 3 of the top 10 spots in all RPG-related sales industry-wide. And thus, any data on 4e not being on Paizo's top seller has to be taken with a large grain of salt for the reason's I outlined.

 

[Scribble]

Paizo sends out e-mails that include their sales rankings of "Top Products from Other Companies". When 4E first came out, 4E stuff from WotC was on that list. I haven't seen a single WotC product there in quite some time. (Though, in fairness, I may have missed it, but I do look for it.)

What I find interesting this time around is how the purchasing patterns are working out. I mean personally I play 4e, I really like 4e, and everyone in my group plays 4e.

I haven't purchased anything other then the 3 book gift set, the DDI, and MoTP.

All the stuff from the other books I feel like I could use shows up in the DDI so I don't really feel a "need" to buy it.

I wonder if the DDI is effecting purchasing habbits for 4e much?

I doubt I'm very much a gamer oddity.

 

[DaveMage]

What I find interesting this time around is how the purchasing patterns are working out. I mean personally I play 4e, I really like 4e, and everyone in my group plays 4e.

I haven't purchased anything other then the 3 book gift set, the DDI, and MoTP.

All the stuff from the other books I feel like I could use shows up in the DDI so I don't really feel a "need" to buy it.

I wonder if the DDI is effecting purchasing habbits for 4e much?

I doubt I'm very much a gamer oddity.

I have seen a quite a few 4E players say the same thing, so you are likely correct. I have also seen some 4E fans, when discussing buying more of the 4E supplements saying "oh, no, I'm not falling into that trap again."

The success of the DDI, of course, is the wildcard that only the WotC people will know. If it's sales are strong, 4E may be just fine for the long term.

 

[Sammael]

I know people who've been playing various RPGs for years without buying a single book. In my own group, out of 6 players, 2 never bothered to pick up any 3.5 books - not even the PHB - even though our 3.5 campaign ran for 5 years. 2 others got by with the PHB and maybe one or two books, and the last 2 owned a dozen books (but one of them also DMed occasionally, and the other is a book collector). The only person who bought books in large quantities was the primary DM - i.e. myself.

In other words, I very much doubt that those who play "a little" own more than the 4E PHB. Some of them may buy PHB2 for added classes, but I think the vast majority will not.

 

[Scribble]

I have seen a quite a few 4E players say the same thing, so you are likely correct. I have also seen some 4E fans, when discussing buying more of the 4E supplements saying "oh, no, I'm not falling into that trap again."

The success of the DDI, of course, is the wildcard that only the WotC people will know. If it's sales are strong, 4E may be just fine for the long term.

Yeah, I have really no idea. I also get the feeling that 6 months out isn't really all that long of a time.

Especially since we're dealing with a switch from a game that was generally well liked and played (even by those who agree with the changes 4e made) and had lots of support. Sure 6 months out we have more stuff fro 4e then we did at first, but not 8 years woth of stuff.

I think if it's not a flop (and I don't think it is) it's going to be a slower build as more people decide they want to play somethign new, or the game fills up with more options and ideas.

 

[DaveMage]

I'm guessing those are sales made by Paizo. And while Paizo stocks 4e stuff, I wouldn't be surprised in the least if folks shopping at Paizo mostly buy Paizo/3.x stuff. Why would someone looking to buy 4e stuff go to the site of a company making their own 3.5e product to do so? Especially since Amazon is so much cheaper if you're already online.

Yes, those are Paizo sales only.

As to your other points, I agree, but people seemed to buy the 4E core rules from there anyway, even though they knew at that point that Paizo was going to make Pathfinder.

 

[Darkwolf71]

But who will be told?

Sales numbers, so far as I know, are only given to WotC. So unless they announce them, or unless somebody at a given retail store lets something slip (which'd only mean something for that store) we're not really going to know just how well the second round of Core Rulebooks sell.

True enough. Weather it does well or not, I suppose we won't see any after effects for a long time, and by then we may not even know the cause.

 

[garyh]

Yes, those are Paizo sales only.

As to your other points, I agree, but people seemed to buy the 4E core rules from there anyway, even though they knew at that point that Paizo was going to make Pathfinder.

Maybe people were looking to give the new rules a look and still toss some cash a company they like? I dunno. But I really don't think the lack of 4e supplements on Paizo's best-seller list means a lot.

I know some people argue Amazon numbers don't mean much, but I'd take it that Martial Power being #3 in Amazon's RPG and Gaming categories means more than it not appearing on Paizo's list.