The difference though is that because Pathfinder is not as ubiquitous as Dungeons & Dragons... they sell more core rulebooks each year because they started from such low sales to begin with. Nobody outside the RPG community knows about the game, so their PR to get their name out there is doing its job to make it more well known so that they can sell books.
This is very true. At least for the first couple years of Pathfinder when it was a practically unknown game and then it tied with D&D and everyone moved over.
But the following two years are different. Some of that was is word of mouth. Other sales are people swapping from 3e and 4e. Plus repeat sales as people buy replacement copies or opt for a newer printing with errata.
But some are new players. There is a whole generation of people being introduced to gaming via Pathfinder and Pathfinder Society.
Much of that is Paizo’s focus on the Core Rulebook. The Beginner Box is a soft introduction that then pushes new people to the Core Rulebook. They opted not to redesign the Core Rulebook when they realized more people were coming to Pathfinder than just a few holdouts.
WotC can’t expect the same growth as the first couple years of PF, but they can try for the sustained sales. Yes, D&D is a little more well known so there will be a spike followed by a drop in sales. But the trick is to not have sales bottom out but to have a steady stream of lesser sales generating regular profit.
This can be encouraged. They can work to emphasise the PHB. Such as not releasing a PHB2 that allows you all but ignore the PHB1. Not devaluing the physical books with endless errata (or releasing updated printings with corrections included). Not having a secondary line for new players that also spreads core book sales across three products. And instead of just having Encounter seasons only focus on the new, also push the PHB and core products.
But Dungeons & Dragons? As soon as the PR starts and says "New edition goes on sale July 1st!"... everybody within the community and even large swathes of people outside the community know about it. Which is why they sell so many of the core game off the top in that first year, and why each year drops off from that point. I mean... the 4th edition of D&D was mentioned on The Colbert Report as getting released, which is an indication of just how much the game's name is out there, and how much press it can get in mainstream media. And that kind of blanketing of the landscape is what causes the avalanche of sales for D&D in Year One, but also thereby assuring them that they aren't going to be able to sustain that level in Year Two, despite perhaps their wish to do so. Everyone's buying the game right off the bat.
This was true back in 2008. When D&D was king of the world and the d20 system dominated the gaming landscape. The 4e PHB and core books sold amazingly well based on pre-orders and people buying the books sight unseen.
Now… people might be significantly more wary. The Year One spike will be much less as more people adopt a “wait and see” approach, deciding to buy based on feedback, reviews, and follow-up releases. I pre-ordered the 4e books and damned if I'm going to repeat that mistake with Next. Fool me once...
Again, WotC can plan for this. They should be aware of the potential for sustained sales of the PHB and release a smaller initial print run but be ready for secondary printings with minor corrections.
Pathfinder is a small, indy film that has built up their word-of-mouth, adding additional screens each and every week until it finally reaches quite substantial profits after several months of release. D&D is the Hollywood blockbuster that is going to get a huge opening weekend, but see its money drop by 60% in week two. That's just the way these two games are, and there's not much either company can do about it.
D&D might be the blockbuster, but it’s the franchise rebooting blockbuster.
Think
Batman Begins where the movie did okay in theaters as people were not rushing to see it following
Batman & Robin. But then it did excellent in DVD and everyone and their mother went to see
The Dark Knight.
The first year of D&D Next is the reboot. The second year is the sequel. If they knock the core books out of the park, word of mouth and sales will rise. Continue to support new playstyles and options with accessories to the PHB and you’ll attract more and more players to D&D or back to D&D. That can lead to sustained sales.
