Lanefan
Victoria Rules
The key word here is "guidelines". The older editions were forgiving enough in their math (and the style of play was different as well) that if you threw something at the party they in theory couldn't handle they might get lucky and handle it anyway, or just run away. But the curve was much flatter.Encounter budgets have NOTHING to do with "making the party win."
Unless of course, as a GM, it serves your intentions. In which case, you ABSOLUTELY want to have guidelines to serve that intent.
3e (and, from what I gather, 4e) made the curve much steeper. In my current old-school game I intentionally threw a Hill Giant at a 1st-level party to see what they'd do (I'd already decided that if the party ran away the giant wouldn't chase them). So what did they do? They charged right at the thing - and killed it! (at cost of almost half the party) Try that in 3e or 4e.
Agreed, except...In any number of situations, it may be perfectly reasonable to encounter a TPK-level threat, or a milquetoast pushover encounter in a given scene. The scene setup, world, situation, etc., may allow for either in a perfectly "simulationist" fashion. As long as the GM can rationally provide a "simulationist" reason for the encounter, either one may fit the bill.
But which one does the GM actually WANT the players to experience? Totally up to the GM.
In this light, having ENCOUNTER GUIDELINES is a massively good thing---because you've set up the encounter the way you expect it to play out.
...this, at least IME, happens all the time! Probably again due to that flatter curve I noted above; sometimes the party gets lucky, sometimes the enemies do. And that's realistic both from a game-world sense: nothing is guaranteed in the fog of war - and from a gamist sense: dice can be fickle things. And personally I prefer this; as predictable encounters get boring very quickly both for DM and players.How many GM's have set up a scene in a game, thinking it should be a "manageable" encounter, consistent with the "simulationist" needs of the setup . . . . only to have the party struggle mightily to stay alive, or be a total pushover with unexpected post-scene consequences?
And while the PCs can do their best to gather information before an encounter, realism suggests they probably won't know everything every time, or worse; that what they think they know is erroneous.
Lanefan