D&D 5E A 5e OGL isn't going to cause another Pathfinder scenario and here's why

[Alzrius]

If 4e had been OGL and PF never existed I still believe some other form would have emerged.

I think so too, but I'm of the opinion that "some other form" would have been a variant of 4E, rather than a 3E-clone. Clark Peterson had already announced a book of alternate rules for 4E before the GSL was finalized (which killed that idea) - had 4E been published under the OGL, it would have been "hacked" and had add-ons and alternates published to the point where it's not hard to imagine that some sort of happy medium would have been published by someone.

 

[Uchawi]

Paizo had a better business model in place, and the OGL provided the path to continue it. The only way that will change is if 5E is popular and they offer a similar OGL so it can be fine tuned to fit the style of different versions of D&D. Otherwise, 5E will not be a substantial threat, unless Paizo becomes complacent when they see Pathfinder numbers drop because the players want something new. Which is the case for any RPG that ever existed. When to change is open to debate.

 

[Morrus]

Even given the exact same sequence of events, not everybody is Lisa Stevens. With the same opportunity, I sure as heck would not have been able to build my RPG to be the #1 seller in the world. It would be a mistake to underestimate the team over at Paizo - they're world class RPG producers, with decades of experience between them. They know what they're doing, and they're very good at doing it.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

Even given the exact same sequence of events, not everybody is Lisa Stevens. With the same opportunity, I sure as heck would not have been able to build my RPG to be the #1 seller in the world. It would be a mistake to underestimate the team over at Paizo - they're world class RPG producers, with decades of experience between them. They know what they're doing, and they're very good at doing it.

there used to be a show "Man, Moment, Machine" and to paraphrase there look at history: "You needed the exact right combination of the right people, at the right time, and the right game..."

 

[DEFCON 1]

I suspect the easiest reason to come up with why there wouldn't be another Pathfinder if 5E goes OGL is that I don't see any way that WotC would release 6E that *also* wasn't OGL (thus avoiding a backlash of 5E players and someone stepping up to revise 5E.)

WotC had the OGL and then didn't use it for the following edition, and got a massive amount of crap from a whole lot of people because of that decision. They tried to put the genie back in the bottle and I don't think anyone would say they were ultimately successful at it. If they now go back on that 4E decision and decide to release 5E through the OGL... they are admitting that the 4E rollback did not succeed as they probably hoped, and that a OGL D&D is a more likely avenue towards popularity and success. As a result, I do not foresee *any* probability that whomever might be in charge of D&D and WotC when they decide to start up 6E will look at the past history and decide "Yeah, let's hold the game back from the OGL a second time." That's just not going to happen. I don't care who is in charge at the time... I don't think *anyone* would attempt that potential mistake twice. I know some people like to dump on WotC's business acumen... but come on, no one is really going to do that again.

So if there's a 5E OGL *and* as a result a 6E OGL... there won't be any company that would be able to market a 5E retroclone at the same sort of level that Paizo was able to with their 3E retroclone. Because all the potential customers and business partners would be able to move on to an open 6E too.

 

[Ahrimon]

While Pathfinder certainly has been successful, I don't think that they can ride the gravy train forever. The system is well past it's bloat point, especially being built on the 3.5 foundation. Eventually the offerings are going to either dry up or become so watered down that they won't be worth it. Paizo will be forced to release Pathfinder 2.0 to clean up some mess or move on. This might be a good number of years away, but it will happen eventually. It will be interesting to see what the community voice is at that time. I already know a good number of people that have played pathfinder but are having more fun with 5e due to the more refined system.

 

[sidonunspa]

Even given the exact same sequence of events, not everybody is Lisa Stevens. With the same opportunity, I sure as heck would not have been able to build my RPG to be the #1 seller in the world. It would be a mistake to underestimate the team over at Paizo - they're world class RPG producers, with decades of experience between them. They know what they're doing, and they're very good at doing it.

Sales numbers are phenomenal for 5e and a lot of people are playing it now, but we will see down the line when it comes to campaign and game support…

If WOTC pulls off the two campaigns per year (which is equal to two adventure paths) with supplements I suspect we will see 5e sales continue to grow.

Things get real interesting if/when 5e is OGL… real interesting.

Depending on which companies jump on board, and the quality of those products (don’t worry I have not heard a peep about mongoose getting back into the d20 market) we may see 5e’s market share grow to the point that Piazo may not be able to simply ignore it.

Now…….Think about this

We have already seen some unofficial pathfinder to 5e conversions.

Once 5e becomes OGL… how long will it take for someone to produce a published 5e bestiary using Piazo’s OGL monsters? Create a book of 5e feats based off combining some Pathfinder Feats? Convert all those pathfinder classes to new 5e Archtypes?

That’s a lot of potential money Piazo is just sitting on

Let’s just look at a Bestiary,
They have the art (Which commonly the largest part of a project budget) and word count… conversion will take a fraction of the time it took to create it all… the project was paid for and made a profit… with a few hundred books sold directly at conventions the project would be 100% paid off and all additional sales (pdf or otherwise) would be pure profit.

There is no reason why they could not do both… support their own game, and off handedly gain sales from the 5e crowd who like their story telling.

Here is the kicker, and they can’t stop someone else from getting the monsters from their SRD and converting them all to the 5e OGL… so they minus well do it themselves.

 

[Jester David]

Amusingly, just the other day I found a couple lengthy email chats from my gaming circles in 2007 and 2008, the groups I played Living Greyhawk with. It was interesting reading my evolving thoughts on 4th Edition, Pathfinder, and gaming.
One quote that stood out was: "My point was, the game focus seems to be on management of your (superhero) abilities, rather than on just trying to facilitate an interactive story, which was what D&D has always been, in my mind." Written back in May of '08 before the PHB was released.

Back in 2008 I was "meh" about Pathfinder thinking "if I'm going to buy and learn a new ruleset then I'll get one that's a major improvement rather than a minor tweak" or that I only needed combat rules and rules didn't need to apply to roleplaying. Fittingly, the person who is now Venture Captain of the local PFS group was much more gung-ho for Pathfinder.
I was really tentatively excited for D&D right up until launch when the books disappointed. A few people were hesitant right from the start being unimpressed by the general tone of the update. So even without Pathfinder really on my radar I had decided to stick with 3e and not really embrace 4e. It's interesting watch the sudden change in the tone of my emails once I read the 4e books.

Assuming my community was remotely typical, Pathfinder likely didn't hurt 4e so much as give people somewhere else to go. It kept the community more intact and less fragmented than if everyone would have gone away and played a dozen different small RPGs.
Although, I imagine the strength of Pathfinder did draw people away. Because they weren't leaving D&D for an unknown, and because it was easier to find like-minded gamers. In the earlier days of gaming (pre-d20), finding people who played your particular game could be tricky. Still, more people had to leave D&D than went to Pathfinder, and gaming groups will often follow their GM wherever they go game-wise.

 

[Jester David]

Sales numbers are phenomenal for 5e and a lot of people are playing it now, but we will see down the line when it comes to campaign and game support…

If WOTC pulls off the two campaigns per year (which is equal to two adventure paths) with supplements I suspect we will see 5e sales continue to grow.

Things get real interesting if/when 5e is OGL… real interesting.

Depending on which companies jump on board, and the quality of those products (don’t worry I have not heard a peep about mongoose getting back into the d20 market) we may see 5e’s market share grow to the point that Piazo may not be able to simply ignore it.

Now…….Think about this

We have already seen some unofficial pathfinder to 5e conversions.

Once 5e becomes OGL… how long will it take for someone to produce a published 5e bestiary using Piazo’s OGL monsters? Create a book of 5e feats based off combining some Pathfinder Feats? Convert all those pathfinder classes to new 5e Archtypes?

That’s a lot of potential money Piazo is just sitting on

Let’s just look at a Bestiary,
They have the art (Which commonly the largest part of a project budget) and word count… conversion will take a fraction of the time it took to create it all… the project was paid for and made a profit… with a few hundred books sold directly at conventions the project would be 100% paid off and all additional sales (pdf or otherwise) would be pure profit.

There is no reason why they could not do both… support their own game, and off handedly gain sales from the 5e crowd who like their story telling.

Here is the kicker, and they can’t stop someone else from getting the monsters from their SRD and converting them all to the 5e OGL… so they minus well do it themselves.

I suspect this will come down to WotC's licence.

One of the stipulations of the GSL was that you could not use it and the OGL at the same time. So you could not have two versions of one product. You had to go OGL or GSL, 3e or 4e.
If that's a case then it's a no-brainer that Paizo will remain OGL. But if they can release compatible products, I can certainly see them doing their own thing and releasing conversion guides, likely as PDFs. And if those sell well they might opt to work the stats into the books and sell those. Or give people who buy a PDF the option of downloading the PF or 5e version.

 

[sidonunspa]

I suspect this will come down to WotC's licence.

One of the stipulations of the GSL was that you could not use it and the OGL at the same time. So you could not have two versions of one product. You had to go OGL or GSL, 3e or 4e.
If that's a case then it's a no-brainer that Paizo will remain OGL. But if they can release compatible products, I can certainly see them doing their own thing and releasing conversion guides, likely as PDFs. And if those sell well they might opt to work the stats into the books and sell those. Or give people who buy a PDF the option of downloading the PF or 5e version.

except $$ wize they would make much more off a printed hard cover bestary.... a PDF conversion guide is a pain the but for GMs to flip back and forth... a book on the other hand..

we will see... wotc did say OGL.. which by it's nature does not proclude producing both...

the GSL scared a LOT of people away... I don't think they will make the same mistake again