Since I'm not telepathic, it's hard to say without you describing your way at length. Are you describing a single-sentence response to the first idea suggested by players, or is there twenty minutes of roleplay leading to a gradual petering out of leads and ideas, followed by the sentence you suggest? If I had to suggest a single point of failure, I'd zero in on your use of the word "preclude". In my scenario, no preclusion occurs, so perhaps you're imagining something extra element.
But you have to admit that if you didn't cut off the players, they might EVENTUALLY come up with new ideas. Like if you let them sit there for a couple of hours they might eventually come up with something new they wanted to try.
Let's say this was the scenario: The PCs have talked to virtually everyone they can think of, they've gone over the "scene of the crime" 3 times. They are now staring at each other and saying "Uhh....anyone have any other ideas?" and everyone else at the table stares blankly at the person who asked for 30 seconds. You then say "Being out of ideas, you settle in for the night and decide to try to come up with some new ideas tomorrow after you've gotten some sleep".
Now, it's certainly possible that the reason no one actually responded to the question is because everyone was wracking their brains to come up with something they hadn't thought up yet and that by allowing them 5 or 10 minutes to think, they MIGHT have come up with a brilliant idea that they hadn't tried yet. But the players accept your "choker" because they realize that you want to move on to the next day and they don't currently have any good ideas. They figure you know more than they do(being the DM) and you might have a plan to reveal more the next day.
Plus, they might have just said "Actually, now that I'm out of ideas, I'm just going to roam the street looking for people to beat up to work out my frustrations. I don't go to bed." But you've told them they go to bed with your narration, preventing them from doing what they want.
So, I see where you are coming from. You are saying that you don't ever use a choker unless it's clear that the PCs already want to do what your choker is saying. But by the very nature of using a choker, you are, in essence still guessing at what the players want to do. It's an educated guess and most often it helps the game. But it's still a guess.
For instance, if you say "You travel for three weeks toward Greyhawk and nothing happens along the way", you are assuming the PCs travel to Greyhawk. They likely stated that already. But it's possible that on day 18 that one of them changes their mind and decides to go somewhere else. But by narrating "You get to Greyhawk", you've kind of taken that choice away from them compared to if you narrated "You travel one day. Then you travel another day. Then you travel another day." Taking things slower gives the players more chances to react and change their minds.
Though, IME letting players change their mind only causes a lot of problems as games slow to a crawl when everyone overthinks their decisions. I love chokers and use them all the time in order to keep things moving. Before using them I normally say something like, "Alright, nothing more eventful happens to you today. Does anyone want to do anything interesting or eventful before we move on? No? Then the next morning, you all get a message..."