Tony Vargas
Legend
The new player traffic has been as steady as it ever gets in my area. Which is to say it's not all that steady, but it's not picked up or dropped off amazingly with 5e. Oddly, we got a lot of new players during the two years of the playtest (got up to 6 tables), none of whom were in the least interested in said playtest (weird). One of the three local stores has stopped doing Encounters (seems to be specialized in Warhammer and Pathfinder, now).ByronD said:But I don't see evidence that hordes of new players are jumping into the hobby each week. The RPG fanbase pretty much seems to be in the same range. A whole lot of them are playing 5E. But most of them bought the books already. I can see a steady trickle of buys for players in groups plus the perpetual roll of new blood. But that seems pretty small compared to the enduring numbers that are suggested here. Either those people are coming from somewhere, or the data is harder to interpret.
I'm not claiming it is either. I don't know.
And, yes, there is a certain amount of churn, as old players leave or new ones don't stick around. Even regulars tend to come and go and come back - nature of causal play, I guess.
3.5 made me gun shy that way. I didn't buy the 4e books for two years (didn't stop me from playing, my regular group had maybe 3-4 PHs among 8 players, and maybe 1 or each other book) - virtually the moment I did invest in the core books, boom, Essentials.when 5e came out, I waited a while and finally took the plunge about 6 months in. I wonder to what extent the sustained sales are driven by people like me trickling back into the fold.

Not see'n it, myself, in this area. Encounters has been pulling in new players the whole time it's been running at my FLGS, over 5 years now, IIRC. The program - low-level, casual play, with experienced DMs to show you the ropes - does seem to work in that regard. Retaining new players was something we had more luck with earlier in the program, while later, with the Red Box, re-prints, and now, 5e, we've had more luck pulling in returning players.Over the process, all 3+ years of it, Mearls has always emphasized that there are always new people interested in D&D or trying to get into it. I think part of the goal of all this was to appeal to the existing base of gamers (us) but another was to cater to new players (them) and keep them playing.
And, really, 5e seems to be designed mainly for the existing and returning player. The Essentials Red Box aimed at what you mentioned: splitting the difference among appealing to existing players, being nostalgic enough to draw in returning ones, and payable enough to retain new ones. It didn't go over so well.
5e's strategy seems more focused, less risky - and more successful, to me.
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