D&D and the rising pandemic

[NotAYakk]

A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:

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• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​

Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually. 1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing. The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark. 99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases. Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases. Suspicious, they are missing almost 90%. But small numbers.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases. Also Suspicious, they are missing 80%.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next. France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time. Washington State could be either side of the edge.

If France and Spain introduce Italy/Wuhan style quarantine today, they will run out of hospital beds capable of ventilating patients. State of Critical Care in France -- France has about 10,000 of them.

 

[Sacrosanct]

Washington State has 4 independent deaths (counting the one nursing home as one event) and 270 detected; they are missing 90%+ of their cases.

UK appears to be on top of it actually. 1.6% death rate to infected is a sign they may be near saturation testing. The 6 deaths*80 multiplier is 480, and they have 324 positive tests; that is the right ballpark. 99% of tested are negative, which also looks like "saturation tests" and not just testing people who show up extremely sick and/or are travel-related to hot spots.

France has 33 deaths and 1800 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.
Spain has 35 deaths and 1700 detected cases. They are missing 90% of their infected.

Germany has 2 deaths and 1100 detected cases. Looks good so far.

California has 2 deaths and 160 cases. Suspicious, they are missing almost 90%. But small numbers.

NY+NJ has 1 death and 180 cases. Also Suspicious, they are missing 80%.

So expect things to get bad in France, Spain and Washington State next. France and Spain if they shut down everything today will still have a bad time. Washington State could be either side of the edge.

If France and Spain introduce Italy/Wuhan style quarantine today, they will run out of hospital beds capable of ventilating patients. State of Critical Care in France -- France has about 10,000 of them.

Where are you getting your figures? King county in Washington has 22 deaths alone. Why would you count the nursing home deaths as one death? That’s awfully arbitrary.

How did you come to 90% not being counted? What data are you basing that off of?

 

[FireLance]

A very interesting (and terrifying for someone who lives in the UK) article. Thanks for posting. I think this excerpt is the most important part:

​

• Countries that are prepared will see a fatality rate of ~0.5% (South Korea) to 0.9% (rest of China).
• Countries that are overwhelmed will have a fatality rate between ~3%-5%

Put in another way: Countries that act fast can reduce the number of deaths by ten. And that’s just counting the fatality rate. Acting fast also drastically reduces the cases, making this even more of a no-brainer.​

Good article. To put it in D&D terms, let's say the worst cases (call it 5% of those infected) need the full-time attention of a cleric to survive.

If you have 200 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 0%.
If you have 250 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 1%.
If you have 500 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 3%.
If you have 1,000 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 4%.
If you have 10,000 cases and 10 clerics, your mortality rate is 4.9%.

 

[GreyLord]

We are soooo close to finishing up our campaign at a spot where it can be put to rest (a good stopping point, not where we end it). I suppose we will have one more session tomorrow and try to finish it up and then, as a precaution, close it up until we see where this entire thing is going.

The US sounds like it's screwed at this point. Estimates seem to indicate hospital capacity is overwhelmed somewhere around May 6 give or take a week.

The UK sounds iffy. I found this thread AMA UK HCID doctor on reddit

So...I'll be proactive. It sounds if this isn't killed by warm weather (like many of the seasonal things go) we could have this epidemic go on for months.

We all have phones though so I suppose we can go via the phone if we want to continue gaming. I have copies of their sheets and can make adjustments as they can so they match.

I have an appointment at one of the hospitals at one of the places they are dealing with the patients of this with a specialist next week (several hours away from me, our area has no cases that are confirmed at this point)...wondering if I should just cancel the appointment (not a life threatening condition for the specialist, just an annoying one) as it is IN the hospital where they are treating a person or two with the virus from what I understand. I got a friendly reminder of the appointment with a warning about it from them today.

I think I'll be proactive on this, just in case from what I've read in the thread.

 

[briggart]

Living in Northern Italy, we moved our game to Skype even before the region wide lockdown was initiated. This seemed to me something that could go out of control very quickly, so I didn't want to take chances.

In our group we are mostly in our 30's and 40's and in relatively good health, so we should be reasonably safe. The main concern is contributing to the spread of the virus. This virus results in a high number of serious pneumonia, requiring various levels of hospitalization, ranging from oxygen breathing to artificial ventilation in ICU.

Italy has slightly more than 1 ICU every 10,000 inhabitants, slightly more than EU average. Business as usual, about 20% of these (a bit more than 1000) are available. What's happening now is that in just a few weeks we have almost completely saturated the ICUs, especially in Lombardy where the outbreak hit the hardest. New ICUs are being made available, and there are still available spots in the less affected areas, but we are now starting to have cases where there are no free ICU locally and people in no condition to be moved to another hospital are, basically, just left to die. To be clear, the ICU shortage affects everyone who needs it, regardless of whether they need it for COVID-19, a stroke, or they were in a car accident, etc.

So yes, it's probably true that the majority of those that will get this will experience just a mild illness, but if it is allowed to spread it will significantly stress the healthcare system causing all sorts of rippling effects.

So please do not panic, but also do not underestimate this!

 

[akr71]

This is the best link I've seen so far. I'm not a statistician, I'm a geographer, so raw numbers mean more to me (the map with graduated symbology just adds to the appeal). The recovery numbers are good to see also.

There are no confirmed cases where I live - yet. So, for right now it is business as usual - gaming and otherwise. My kids go on spring break next week and the neighboring province just went back after a week off. I imagine in about a week or two, all hell will break loose, because folks would rather have a good time on a beach or at Disney than exercise common sense and be cautious.

 

[Umbran]

How did you come to 90% not being counted? What data are you basing that off of?

It looks like working backwards: assume a 1.6% mortality rate. If you have X deaths, those deaths are 1.6% of the infected population.

How many cases have you identified? Compare that to this theoretical infected population. The difference is what's not being counted.

This rides heavily on the estimated mortality rate, which is an estimate, of a virus we don't have a great handle on yet. So, it should be taken with a grain of salt.

On the flip side, yes, we are probably missing most of the cases - our ability to test is not really up to snuff, and my understanding is that until very recently, testing was limited to those who had traveled to known infected areas (like northern Italy) and people who had direct contact with diagnosed carriers. If you didn't meet those criteria, but had symptoms, you weren't tested, because the number of tests that could be performed was very limited.

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*

 

[Celebrim]

What’s your risk of dying of COVID-19 - or inadvertently allowing the death of someone in your community?

As shown below, your personal risk, if you’re a young and healthy adult, of catching and dying of the COVID-19 coronavirus this week is fairly low: probably below or only slightly above your risk of accidental death from something else. The risk to older age groups and those with chronic diseases is

www.linkedin.com

 

[lowkey13]

*Deleted by user*