D&D and the rising pandemic

[Dannyalcatraz]

But we are living in the Dunning-Kruger Chainsaw Massacre.

This movie needs to be made.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Yes it does. But it isn't a solution.

We aren't going to do this for 10 years. If our plan is to actually develop herd immunity and get 30%-70% infected, and we do it over 10 years, we stay under capacity. If we do it in 5 years, we blow past capacity, and death rates hit 3%-5% instead of 4%-10%. If we do over 1 year, death rates become basically the same as if we never did it.

I'm saying it isn't a solution. I'm saying the steps involved in flattening the curve do save lives, they do delay deaths, and they can be part of a solution. But this disease is far to nasty to be solved by "flattening the curve".

Yes, it can buy time for another solution.

We have 1 solution that works. Its initial steps are helped by reducing infections. Other solutions may or may not arrive.

We should move towards the direction of that working solution.

This is the same direction as the "flattening the curve" non-solution, so doing the steps involved with flattening the curve is great. But we should not expect that the measures taken to flatten the curve will go away in a few weeks, unless we move to another solution.

Every location that has beat this back has engaged in large scale social isolation. Right now I'm staring at stats out of Italy to find out if their relatively modest restrictions are enough to make the growth curve go sub-exponential (the last 2 days looked good -- 2400, 2600 new cases -- if they keep it up over the weekend, I'm really excited).

No, I'm a literate person with whose mathematical literacy in the top fraction of a percent who has read a lot of epidemiological stuff over the past 2 months because I've been concerned about this issue. (Note: Being good at math is mostly useless in life, but it helps when understanding exponential curves.)

Yes, we should social distance and reduce transmission. "Flatten the curve" as a solution is what I'm talking about. The idea we just let it saturate the population and we just make it happen slower doesn't work (well, I'm not willing to give up yet), and if our solution is "flatten the curve" that is all it provides.

How about SK? How about Italy?

The get to naughty word work.

You go to war with the troops you have, not the ones you want. This is a war, and something like 300 million people around the world, and 15 million US citizens, lives are at stake, plus many more crippled for life.

Yes, your federal executive is a fuckup. Go talk to your state government and get them to hire the pandemic experts they fired and get your state on it. Start with what you can do (social distancing, limiting travel). Raise naughty word taxes or borrow money to start funding your own labs to do testing.

Get your state on a war footing now, don't want for Trump and gang to get a brain. "Flatten the curve" will buy time, and your federal government executive response is busy shaking people's hands after being exposed to it and arranging huge conferences to spread this thing.

And if your state is also brain dead? Talk to your city. If that is brain dead? Talk to your neighbors, your church. Failing all of that, organize your god-damn gaming group.

Find the largest organization you can direct to attack this mofoing plague.

Have absolutely nobody? Call up elderly neighbors and see about delivering them food and supplies.

"Flatten the curve" is not going to solve this. The US president is not going to solve this.

But you can help. Very locally, you can help the vulnerable stay safe (deliver food and stuff so they don't have to expose themselves), which isn't much, but is something. Going up from there it gets more abstract and less direct, but a modern US city isn't a helpless creature who has to wait for Trump to stop pretending this is a Hoax.

As noted, language, watch it please.

Here’s the deal, though: flattening the curve and similar public health measures may remain the best option we have for the foreseeable future. Wanting effective antivirals, cures, and vaccines and throwing lots of money at brilliant researchers may not reap results for years.

For decades.

Generations.

Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin. Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.

 

[NotAYakk]

Here’s the deal, though: flattening the curve and similar public health measures may remain the best option we have for the foreseeable future. Wanting effective antivirals, cures, and vaccines and throwing lots of money at brilliant researchers may not reap results for years.

For decades.

Generations.

Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin. Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.

That is the path to having 5% of the world and country population killed by this. I label this "losing". Losing is always an option.

There are alternatives. We can have no travel, no group gatherings, no working in offices, no in-person schools for 10+ years. Then we keep deaths down to 1%. This sucks, but better than losing.

We can try to beat it through known, proven methods. Namely, what Wuhan did, and what SK/

We can pray that a miracle occurs.

Here we go, someone did a good log-scale infection plot. Two days old, so obsolete (!), but still a solid visualization:

Austria, Greece, Iran, Norway, UK, Sweden, Belgium, France, Spain are a week, give or take, away from disaster.

Italy, SK are over the disaster line.

SK has flattened the curve, and has hope to turn it around. Their religious cult that caught it gave them a serious setback.

China, HK, Japan seem to have it beat; a flat curve like that looks like increased diagnosis more than an exponential bug.

USA, Canada are about 2 weeks away from the disaster line where Italy shut down 1/3 of the country.

Some of the above have begun to socially isolate on a regional or national scale. Shutting down schools, banning large gatherings, etc.

 

[MoonSong]

China ...seem to have it beat; a flat curve like that looks like increased diagnosis more than an exponential bug.

I fear that that's what they want us to think.

 

[Fenris-77]

@NotAYakk - You rail against flattening the curve a couple of posts ago, and then finish with some very flatten the curve type advice. I'm confused about what the message is supposed to be. For me, make reasonably safe decisions and help whomever you can sounds like the place to start. We can all help at whatever level we have access. Some people can help get organized at a higher level, for sure. Not everyone is that person by nature or position however, but the little things, local things, neighborhood things - those things matter a lot too.

 

[Enevhar Aldarion]

Covid-19 might turn into the common cold’s nastier ubiquitous cousin. Worse, one of its inevitable mutations could prove more deadly.

Yep, and as soon as there is a vaccine or pill or something that at least keeps people from dying, everyone will forget about what is going on right now and set us up for the next pandemic to do the same thing.

 

[NotAYakk]

@NotAYakk - You rail against flattening the curve a couple of posts ago, and then finish with some very flatten the curve type advice. I'm confused about what the message is supposed to be. For me, make reasonably safe decisions and help whomever you can sounds like the place to start. We can all help at whatever level we have access. Some people can help get organized at a higher level, for sure. Not everyone is that person by nature or position however, but the little things, local things, neighborhood things - those things matter a lot too.

Um, I said, and I bold:

So, "flatten the curve" is a good way to get people to start with the right thing.

The thing is, it won't work, if your goal is to get herd immunity (30-70% infected and recovered). If you kept the infection rate below what the US health care system can handle, we are talking about an epidemic spread out over 10 years.

" a few posts ago ".

I am saying that it is a good way to convince people to do what needs doing. It is a lie, in that it pretends that it is a solution (with the graph going to zero). It isn't.

With a disease 100x less nasty it would be a solution. For this, it buys time.

It is buying time for a better solution.

(But this is why I don't have a career in communications. I can start a post with what I want to say, say it 3 times, and people still get the opposite message!)

 

[Asensur]

Anyone knows good modules for 1 PC? Isolated in Madrid

 

[Celebrim]

Anyone knows good modules for 1 PC? Isolated in Madrid

Now is the time for making use of modern communication devices. Find a game online.

God bless you and yours in Spain.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

@NotAYakk

There are alternatives. We can have no travel, no group gatherings, no working in offices, no in-person schools for 10+ years. Then we keep deaths down to 1%. This sucks, but better than losing.

Those would be public health measures, as I mentioned.

Sometimes, life only gives you bad options, and you have to choose which is the least sucky. It doesn’t matter what the predictive stats tell us if science is unable to provide a better path.