D&D and the rising pandemic

[ad_hoc]

Right now it looks like California, Texas, and Florida have the highest growth rates.

California has never hit a peak, it's just growing and up to 2700/day on average right now. The same is true of Texas, steady growth.

Florida spiked early and then had a sharp decline in cases/day. They have ramped back up though and are now at their previous peak and set to go past it.

 

[NotAYakk]

Ontario is down to 240 cases/day, and 90% of them are in one city (Toronto) and 75% of them are medical care (old folks homes included) related.

So 24 cases/day for 8 million (give or take) people (depending on how widely you define "Toronto"). Plus others asymptomatic, of course.

Good news:

Areas with exhaustive contact tracing are finding asymptomatic infected people (people who catch C19 and get better without symptoms), and more importantly, are not finding infections in turn from them. Presymptomatic people (people who have C19, and before they develop symptoms) are a different story.

So contract tracing based on people with symptoms and positive tests (even a runny nose) should be effective at making Re plummit; have their contacts isolate and get tested. (By going after their as-yet asymptomatic contacts, we catch presymotomatic people before they start infecting others).

Social distancing and the rise of summer means that traditional colds are dying off; so everyone with any cold-type symptoms gets tested, you have a good chance of being able to choke this thing off.

Add in modest social distancing (no indoor choir singing! Masks for service workers! Working from home when possible!) and ramp up the economy without megadeath. Maybe.

---

This is one of the reasons behind "flatten the curve". It bought time. We know more about how it spreads, we have more PPE, we have hospitals that know how to treat it, we have tests to detect it. Now we can drop Re more efficiently than we could in March.

And if we keep Re under 1.0 and this thing dies out.

Now, the number of additional infected during the die out phase is (1/(1-Re)). So an Re of 0.9 isn't that useful (as we get 10x more infected before it dies out). An Re of 0.5 means we get 2x more infected, and one of 0.25 means we get 33% more infected. OTOH, our learning and testing and contact tracing gets better as numbers fall and time passes; so even an Re of 0.9 means it doesn't get worse (per day), and if costs are low enough we can sustain that and start applying improved measures.

 

[Theo R Cwithin]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case before a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?

 

[MoonSong]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case before a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?

I'm not sure... I'm going to ask the one health expert in my life later. Maybe it is that a pre-symptomatic person will show some signs in their body that show the disease is developping while the asymptomatic will be otherwise in perfect health just happens to be contagious?

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I'm not sure... I'm going to ask the one health expert in my life later. Maybe it is that a pre-symptomatic person will show some signs in their body that show the disease is developping while the asymptomatic will be otherwise in perfect health just happens to be contagious?

Pretty much, though some researchers are now suggesting the asymptomatic may be almost non-contagious, and “asymptomatic spread” may in fact be “presymptomatic spread,”

I’m dubious of this in the light of the US Navy’s issues with the virus, but THEY had the complicating factor of tight, enclosed living/working space meaning even the mildly contagious had a greater chance of infecting others.

 

[Istbor]

It can be hard to say - looking at the overall number in such a large country as the US can be misleading. An overall trend could be level, while it is rising in one place while dropping in another. Boston, for example, has a stead decline in its number of cases per day. Meanwhile, Texas and Florida are trending up.

As others have said - deaths lag behind detected cases. SO, those areas of rising cases are apt to see deaths also rise in the not-too-distant future.



I'd be surprised if you were sure how to feel. It is a still-developing situation.

Fair. I understand the several week lag time, but maybe let my more recent thoughts override that reality check. Worry that this slow burn we are at could become a flare once again if we grew too complacent.

I did have my first chance at eating at a restaurant since early this year. Ate outside with ample space from any other groups. There were still some, mostly older folk who had masks for before and after consuming their food. Good that people are still being cautious.

I believe my county is set to possibly move to phase 2 near the 12th. Much of the rest of the state reopened without much of a plan.

 

[Umbran]

Out of curiosity, does anyone know if is there's a difference between a "presymptomatic" and an "asymptomatic" case before a person gets sick/better; or is that something that can't be determined until after the case resolves?

In terms of being able to know if you are one or the other? No. To casual observation, they are indistinguishable.

Which, of course, is a problem when you are trying to get people to do the right thing.

 

[Zardnaar]

There are definitely areas of the country where cases are falling, but there are also places where they're raising steadily. In my home county, we're still increasing by around 200 cases every day, and we've been on lockdown for more than 3 months now.

American lockdown is very lax. It will reduce the spread but won't choke it off.

Read yesterday another meat plant in Utah had around 25% of the staff infected.

We spent almost 5 weeks in level 4 lockdown. They closed almost everything. First week it was everything including online stuff. Supermarkets and pharmacy were open along with corner stores as they were essential. Supermarkets operated on one in one out and controlled foot traffic.

Then we had 2 weeks of level 3. Contact free takeaways were allowed here.

Then a month of level 2. Restaurants we're allowed to reopen with groups up to 10. Then they relaxed the rules to allow groups of 100. Schools reopened and business were allowed to reopen. You had to sign in at restaurants.

Went to level 1 on midnight Monday. Mostly border controls.

American lockdowns seem to be our level 2.5. Big box retail didn't reopen until level 2, takeaways and delivery were allowed level 3.

 

[NotAYakk]

Most of Ontario just hit level 2.5 NZ (schools closed, groups of up to 10 allowed outside home, hair salons with PPE, etc). Toronto and some areas near the USA are excluded.

 

[Levistus's_Leviathan]

American lockdown is very lax. It will reduce the spread but won't choke it off.

Yes, but that's more than a bit of an understatement. A more accurate statement is "The American lockdown was a disaster that reduced the spread of Covid-19, but was not initiated soon enough or broadly enough to be effective to the point that was needed."