Except they did, in fact, have rogue modrons as a playable race in 2E. If they could make it work in 2E, surely they can make it work in 5E.
Sure, it is possible, it is just really hard. And that difficulty, the limited scope, and the other problems make it a low possibility. That is all I am saying.
They also reprinted subclasses in Xanathar's, and again in Tasha's. Do you therefore think they aren't likely to add any more subclasses to the game? Reprints don't really mean much.
No, that isn't what I am saying.
What I am saying is that when confronted with a race of people that were prone to violent mood swings and raw impulse, the type of people who will furiously smash a machine that isn't working into scrap in a fit of rage and a race of highly disciplined warriors who are devoted body and soul to bettering their society through cooperation, the fact that both of them were called "goblin" was enough to give them the same stats.
Trust me, the Ravnica Goblins and the Heirs of Dhaakan from Eberron could not be more different, but the stats were simply reprinted. The Talenta Halflings are barbaric dinosaur riders, and they have the exact same stats as the worry free agrarian pastoral dream that are Faerun Halflings. So, if confronted with the Kithkin who are a race of small community minded folk... are they going to create a whole new race? They didn't for the Talenta Halfling, the Ravnica Goblin, the Dhakaan Goblin, ect. They could, but they also very easily could not.
Because changes in lore don't always translate into changes in mechanics.
This reinforces my point. They could have made leonin a variant tabaxi. But they didn't. Why? Because they figured fans of the Theros setting (or folks generally) might want to play a leonin, and not a variant tabaxi. Why would they do any differently for kender or draconians?
Yes it does, but that was before this change in direction. And looking at the Leonin, they could have easily gone the other way. And in most other cases where this shows up, they did go the other way. This is the one time I can find a race that could have been a variant based on an earlier write up, but wasnt'.
Dude, you found a single example of what you're proposing will be the norm, in a sea of examples that prove Wizards can and will continue to create full-fledged races and subraces even when they could do variants...
No, I am offering it as an example of what I'm talking about, because you seem to have a different understanding than I do.
If you looked at the Ravenites and said "that is a new racial write up for a new race, that is what I think wizards will do going forward" I'm looking at that same write up and saying "this is a variant of an existing race. Not a new write up, and this is what I think wizards will be doing going forward, if it needs to"
And I think what you are missing for your "sea of examples" is just how actually conservative Wizards has been.
We have five official settings? Forgotten Realms, Eberron, Ravnica, Wildemount, Theros, eh, I'll add Greyhawk as a 6th.
Elves exist in 5 of those six settings. And other than Eberron getting a sidebar in one book, and not the official book it was the PDF Wayfinders guide, the only one of those settings that got even a new subrace was Wildemount. Which wasn't designed by WoTC. And if they had added elves to Theros, I'd say the same thing would have likely happened.
We have elves, even when we get Athasian elves, we are going to very likely get nothing more than a sidebar of variant features and that is it. Now, we did get new elves, we got Eladrin, Shadar-Kai and Sea Elves. But, these were also in a book with a section all about elves. We likely aren't going to get that again. We likely aren't going to get that for Giantkin like Goliaths and Firbolgs and get subraces for them, because they don't have subraces.
And I've been talking with you and others, Modrons, Kreen, and Spiritfolk are about the only "full fledged races" that we can come up with. There just isn't a lot of ground here left to cover.
Then, for many players, you pick your class - possibly also using the quick build - and you're ready to play. Some folks just want to game.
Right, but the point that was trying to get across was that you wanted an "obvious decision" but the Racial ASI doesn't give you that. It gives you four options, minimum. So if you can just pick your class, then it raises questions about why you couldn't just pick any of the rest of it.