I didn't say anyone was destined for greatness.Or some other bloke who had equally gifted but didn't become famous. Your comparison is flawed as it implies the PCs are destined for greatness.
What I said is Joe Average the Commoner won't make it to level 6. Only Harry Elite and Sandra Special can. And They could die on the path too. But Joe Average 100% will die if he don't retire by level 5.
You are confusing level and potential.No offense, but I have seen a level one wizard be taken out by a single hyena. A hyena! That is no more elite than a town guard. Which, by the way, I have seen a wizard get knocked out by one of those too!
I have watched two lizardfolk knock a group of five adventurers unconscious. (They were a little hurt, but still.) The point is, a 1st level PC is not elite.
Now 4th level, I would agree - they are on their way. At eighth, it's a done deal.
The level 15 archmage started as a level 1 mage with 16 Intelligence. He was level 1 but had 16 INT.
16 INT is elite.
The basic common folk has 9, 10 and 11s before racials.
The eltit folk who become PCs have 16s, 15s, or 14s, before racials.