D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[cbwjm]

I think it will be a hit, I'm not expecting it to break any records, but I still think it will do well. Judging by the trailers, it looks like a fun movie.

 

[fettpett]

is Tetris even going to theatre? It seams more of an adult drama than a blockbuster anyway. I'm expecting enough to warrant a sequel myself.

No, it's on Apple+, I was being tongue-in-cheek lol. Either way my point is that it doesn't have a lot of competition on opening weekend other than movies that will have been out for a week or two

 

[dave2008]

Let's be more specific.

Currently, it's projected at the following:

Opening weekend between $50-$60 million.
Total Domestic: $150-$175 million.
Total Worldwide: $400-$450 million.

(There will be updated numbers as we get closer to the opening on March 31, 2023).

Do you take the OVER or the UNDER


Personally, I take the under. I think it will perform slightly under expectations. I hope I'm wrong.

I will take the over, that number seems low. For reference, IIRC, each of the recent Godzilla movies made more than that. I think this movie as more a chance to be a local and international hit than those (and I'm probably a bigger Godzilla fan than D&D fan - its close though)

 

[TheSword]

Everything I’ve seen so far I like from a movie point of view not a fan of D&D point of view. That is a very good sign, because this film needs to reach beyond the fan base.

Trailers can be very deceptive I know, but it’s a genuinely funny trailer and that’s also a good sign.

I’ll take the over, I remain cautiously optimistic.

 

[M_Natas]

Let's be more specific.

Currently, it's projected at the following:

Opening weekend between $50-$60 million.
Total Domestic: $150-$175 million.
Total Worldwide: $400-$450 million.

(There will be updated numbers as we get closer to the opening on March 31, 2023).

Do you take the OVER or the UNDER


Personally, I take the under. I think it will perform slightly under expectations. I hope I'm wrong.

Star Trek (2009) made 260 million domestic and 385 million Worldwide.
I think that is a realistic goal for D&D. D&D is probably bigger in the US than Worldwide. So it could be similiar to Star Trek. It even shares the Chris Pine .

The World Wide Box Office is now bigger than 2009 - so my estimates would be ... Domestic 200 Million, foreign 200 Million Total 400 Million.
What am I hoping for? If the Movie is good, 900 Million Worldwide. If the Movie is bad, 200 million Worldwide.

So far, I'm reading the Prequel novel Road to Neverwinter and really like it. It is brave in its story approach.

 

[Mirtek]

If it makes a profit then it's not a flop. If it doesn't profit at all then it's a flop.

The profit needs to be high enough though.

If they tied up hundreds of millions over a couple of year and then only get like +3% on top of the recovered cost then it's a flop for them. Despite giving them a few extra millions.

 

[MGibster]

If they tied up hundreds of millions over a couple of year and then only get like +3% on top of the recovered cost then it's a flop for them. Despite giving them a few extra millions.

A disappointing return isn't the same as a flop, but Hollywood doesn't see it that way sometimes.

 

[Plaguescarred]

Without being a huge blockbuster, i think it will be a hit by doing relatively well.

 

[Clint_L]

So hard to predict without any reviews or audience scores. Let's think...

Star power: fairly weak for this kind of film (no offence to Chris Pine, Michelle Rodriguez and Hugh Grant)
IP: the name "D&D" is well known among the public but not as a film property.
Early marketing: seems solid.
Buzz: okay.
Style: Seems to be hitting all the Marvel notes at a time when Marvel-style films are on the decline.

I'll take slightly under as well. $375-400 million worldwide. I hope it does great, though!

 

[CleverNickName]

I think it'll perform about the same as Willow did in 1988: it's more or less the same genre, and has more or less the same amount of promotion and product tie-ins, and is targeted at more or less the same audience.

Willow earned $8.3M on its opening weekend, and earned $57.2M across its entire theatrical run worldwide. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $21.1M on opening weekend, and $145.4M worldwide. And so that's what I predict for Honor Among Thieves. (Now I'm worried that I guessed too low in my Opening Weekend Prediction Contest thread, at $17.6M. Ah well, I'm not really playing to win.)