D&D Movie/TV Guess the D&D Movie Opening Weekend Box Office Performance, and Win a Prize!

OB1

Jedi Master
It's complicated, and a lot to do with expectations. This was an extremely risky film for a studio to put that kind of money into, and it only happened because Hasbro underwrote half the cost. So it doesn't have to make as much as you might think for Paramount to make a profit, and for Hasbro this is partly about building up the D&D brand, so it is an investment in their future. Which is laudable! And for an unknown franchise (to the movie-going public) this is a good opening, even though it would be a disaster for, say, a Marvel movie (to put in context, Iron Man launched the MCU with a $98 million opening. In 2008. But superhero films were already an established genre at that point).

Launching a new film brand, especially for a relatively underserved genre, is hard to do. But if the film is good (and this one is), it can make money over time and create the conditions for more profitable sequels. So this film is mostly about the future.
Exactly this. Compared to films like Uncharted and Dune (which both opened in low 40Ms and got sequels), D&D is doing okay, and Hasbro's investment in the film is def more about lifting the D&D brand than having this movie be profitable on it's own (though it still could be!)
 

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Snarf Zagyg

Notorious Liquefactionist
I said it before as a joke, but I'm serious when I say that the media can report anything as a failure. World of Warcraft made $270 million in profit, 2.7 times it's budget, and it still got reported as a "flop". Box Office: 'Warcraft' Is A $430 Million Flop

On a similar note, here's an article from 2011 about how Return of the Jedi and Harry Potter Order of the Phoenix are both economic failures: How Hollywood Accounting Can Make a $450 Million Movie 'Unprofitable'

Any time some one brings up "marketing costs", "studio expectations", or "other expenses", rest assured that the numbers are 100% made up.

I've been over this before, but there is a big difference between Hollywood Accounting and whether a movie is "profitable," and, for that matter, why expectations often matter.

Since I've covered it so many times, I'm going to make it brief.

1. Hollywood Accounting. This is nothing more than normal accounting, except maybe the extreme version. Just the idea that studios will use all the tricks in the book (and then some) in order to "zero out" profits. But this has nothing to do with common parlance of profitability. In other words, Hollywood Accounting is applied to all movies and doesn't really have anything to do with conversations about profitability. Unless you made the mistake of entering into a share of the profits (ugh, don't), no one care about this.

2. Box-office profitability. This is what most people are talking about. Again, this is a really rough figure- but it's the idea that a movie make more at the box office than its production costs. Of course, studios don't always report the true production costs (TAX BREAKS!), or the true marketing costs, and this doesn't take into account all sorts of factors, from in-movie advertising (product placement) to merchandise (toys, etc.) to rights for VOD and streaming- which are increasingly important. But this is why movies that might seem profitable, or slightly profitable, are actually flops to the studio, while movies that seem like they are money losers are actually money makers.

3. Finally, expectations can matter a great deal- the studio's expectations. The WoW movie is a great example. It did great business ... in China. But was considered a flop because it so underperformed in America. The trouble with the movie was in a lot of areas- it was considered a flop in English-speaking countries; the massive profits in China were in a market that gives the smallest percentage of box office back, and there is never a guarantee of release of a western movie in China, all of which made the movie a break-even proposition and means that the studio has no interest in a franchise.


All of this is only a little interesting. Why? Because to begin with, why do we care how these movies perform? Obviously, it's just another way to continue "rooting" for or against things. Which goes to @bedir than and his point about the nature of fans hating on things .... it's why, even today, you have people arguing about the profitability of BvS. WHO CARES. It's just another symptom of toxic fandom.

More importantly, there is an easy way to tell how a movie does. See what happens next! Do they want to make more? If so, it did well. If not, regardless of accounting and other issues, it didn't. Pretty pretty simple.

As for the D&D movie, they likely have an arranged streaming deal and hope for merchandising (Hasbro), which goes into the profitability or lack thereof, not to mention they need something to introduce the various media plays they are making. All of which is to say that the box office profitability is not the most important indicator, but it is important that it continues to beat expectations.
 

Undrave

Legend
So, here's the thing about Nintendo: they care about the Japanese market first and foremost, and while they are happy to localize they are not that focused on it (Breath of the Wild's Japanese voice acting and writing are noticably better than the english localization). On the other hand, Illumination is big on celebrity stunt casting for cvoices. But, if you look at the Japanese voice cast before this upcoming movie, it's not goofy celebrity stunt casting: it's very cool veteran Anime voice actors. If Illumination was doing the English voice cast the same way that the Japanese side is being handled, people like the Critical Role crew would be in there instead of Chris Pratt.
Hmm… good points. And I still understand Illumination’s impulse to go for a celebrity, but I don’t know if someone as BIG as Chris Pratt was needed, ya know? I’m also a bit disappointed in Chris Pratt himself because his Mario doesn’t feel different from other performance, while in LEGO Movie 2 he managed to make Emmet and Rex feel totally different as characters
despite them being the same guy!
. Feels like they wasted money :p
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
Hmm… good points. And I still understand Illumination’s impulse to go for a celebrity, but I don’t know if someone as BIG as Chris Pratt was needed, ya know? I’m also a bit disappointed in Chris Pratt himself because his Mario doesn’t feel different from other performance, while in LEGO Movie 2 he managed to make Emmet and Rex feel totally different as characters
despite them being the same guy!
. Feels like they wasted money :p
Yeah, that's how Illumination rolls, unfortunately.
 

mamba

Legend
It's odd framing that beating the studio's expectations by ten percent is considered a failure.
Do people think the studio expected failure?
First of all, we do not know what they really expected. The estimates we get are based around what it can reasonably make at the box office, not what it would actually cost to recoup the investment, that might already be futile at that point (generally speaking, not talking about this particular movie)

Second, the published estimate is generally lowballing it slight because headlines of ‘exceeds expectations’ are better than ‘struggles to meet expectations’.

That being said, it is too early to tell whether it will be a success. At $150M production cost and unclear marketing cost it would probably need to make around $400M to break even. The start is not looking too promising for that, but it is not counted out either.
 

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller
First of all, we do not know what they really expected. The estimates we get are based around what it can reasonably make at the box office, not what it would actually cost to recoup the investment, that might already be futile at that point (generally speaking, not talking about this particular movie)

Second, the published estimate is generally lowballing it slight because headlines of ‘exceeds expectations’ are better than ‘struggles to meet expectations’.

That being said, it is too early to tell whether it will be a success. At $150M production cost and unclear marketing cost it would probably need to make around $400M to break even. The start is not looking too promising for that, but it is not counted out either.
The published expectations were prior to any tickets being sold
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend
First of all, we do not know what they really expected. The estimates we get are based around what it can reasonably make at the box office, not what it would actually cost to recoup the investment, that might already be futile at that point (generally speaking, not talking about this particular movie)

Second, the published estimate is generally lowballing it slight because headlines of ‘exceeds expectations’ are better than ‘struggles to meet expectations’.

That being said, it is too early to tell whether it will be a success. At $150M production cost and unclear marketing cost it would probably need to make around $400M to break even. The start is not looking too promising for that, but it is not counted out either.
The trade papers are rather notoriously nasty, if this was remotely looking like a failure they would already be dancing on it's grave.
 




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