D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[teitan]

Another indicator of hit or flop is Core 3 and boxed set sales on Amazon

I wouldn’t use Amazon.

 

[Zardnaar]

You’re trashing it to trash it. That’s just a fact. If it “only” made 70 you would still be saying the same thing.

I didn't buy into the hype.

These are the numbers we have also known as "facts". 151 million cost made 71 million week 1. Projected 40 million ceiling week 2. It needs around 300 million minimum to break even (we don't know the marketing costs)

It will make some amount of money during the week we will have to wait and see on its week two.

It's not a smash hit ATM it's budget and box office doesn't support that.

Can't call it a flop either week two will offer an indication, week three you can probably make a somewhat accurate projection for its total box office.

 

[teitan]

I didn't buy into the hype.

These are the numbers we have also known as "facts". 151 million cost made 71 million week 1. Projected 40 million ceiling week 2. It needs around 300 million minimum to break even (ee don't know the marketing costs)

It will make some amount of money during the week we will have to wait and see on its week two.

It's not a smash hit ATM it's budget and box office doesn't support that.

Can't call it a flop either week two will offer an indication, week three you can probably make a somewhat accurate projection for its total box office.

Ok man, you’re the expert. Sure thing.

 

[Zardnaar]

We have merch tie in now. We have had merch tie ins for months. We have novels, graphic novels, toys, more toys announced, shirts, posters, etc. where is this year coming from? Lol

Lego has the D&D license by the way. You must not be paying attention.

I am but that's not relevant to my OP. You're strawmanning it.

And in any event none of us will have access to the merch information. They've made some no idea if it's selling or not you don't either and neither of us has access to production and distribution costs so it's a moot point.

We do have access to box office numbers and how movies typically make money.

 

[Stalker0]

You just really don’t want this movie to succeed in any way shape or form or believe it can do you? Word of mouth is 93%

With respect, Zard is giving you facts born of the consistent "science" of box office performances.

While it is possible for a movie to have a surge beyond its opening weekend....that is exceedingly rare. While its possible for a movie to have almost no dropoff for weeks on end, that is exceedingly rare.

And no where did Zard say the movie would not succeed. What they were noting was what it would take for the movie to succeed.

 

[Zardnaar]

Ok man, you’re the expert. Sure thing.

Neither are you. I'm using publicly available information. It's reasonably well known how box office numbers work and what the spilt is between theatres and studios is.

 

[Zardnaar]

With respect, Zard is giving you facts born of the consistent "science" of box office performances.

While it is possible for a movie to have a surge beyond its opening weekend....that is exceedingly rare. While its possible for a movie to have almost no dropoff for weeks on end, that is exceedingly rare.

And no where did Zard say the movie would not succeed. What they were noting was what it would take for the movie to succeed.

You get it.

The big plus here it's projected drop off is reasonably low. 20% higher than John Wick roughly.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

For those who are saying if the D&D movie doesn't make money Paramount won't want to do another one, here is Paramount/Hasbros GI Joe movies budget vs box office and remember the general rule is a movie has to earn 2.5x it budget to break even.

G.I. Joe Franchise Box Office History - The Numbers

Note how much these movies lost, with the latest Snake Eye loses being the most brutal inspite of it much smaller budget then the first two, like it didn't even make back its budget never mind 2.5 x budget.


AND THEY ARE MAKING A FOURTH GI JOE MOVIE!!! even after the mega wiff that was snake eyes.

Why? Because for IPs like D&D & GI Joe its the merch that makes the real money, not the Box Office (although that certainly doesn't hurt).

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Its to early for that and no one has access to those figures so it's a moot point.

 

[Stalker0]

In 2022 there were only three movies that made 140+. Not even Avatar 2 made that.

Are you talking about final profit or box office? Because box office wise, its at $2.213 billion.

Estimates though was it would need 2 billion to break even with the incredible budget, but even then its a good bit above 140 million (213 million based on that estimate)