D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[darjr]

It’s a success. PR wise and critically and I think financially even now. Cause I dint think it needs to make money for Hasbro just yet but that it beat expectations is probably the big win.

Means they knew what they had and they knew it was at least a certain level of “good”.

 

[Zardnaar]

Look, @Clint_L, you can either listen to respected experts in the industry or you can listen to anonymous people who claim expertise on ENWorld.

People on ENworld can count. That article doesn't xall things either way.

Interesting its saying the movies week 2 ceiling is around 40 million that's around 40% fall. Well at best it's a 40% fall.

John Wick had 60% fall, cheaper movie bigger opening though.

 

[Zardnaar]

It’s a success. PR wise and critically and I think financially even now. Cause I dint think it needs to make money for Hasbro just yet but that it beat expectations is probably the big win.

Means they knew what they had and they knew it was at least a certain level of “good”.

My OP was purely about the box office numbers.

It's not do you like the movie or what do the critics think. It's basically will this movie make money by itself.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

People on ENworld can count.

Debatable!

 

[Henadic Theologian]

People sho

Except if it flops Hasbro has tob find another idiot to pony up cash. I doubt Paramount will.

And if the movie tanks flow on merchandise sales won't be that great either. Clearance bins in a few months.

The market may not be there for an expensive D&D movie they may have to go low budget make a good movie and build on that.

TV show maybe. Season of Shadow and Bone came in under 70 million and it's one of the best fantasy shows on.

Paramount partner with Hasbro for multiple failed GI Joe movies.

Also Hasbro payed for 50% movie, but as far as I can tell doesn't get anywhere near 50% of the box office, the cushioned Paramount's risk.

I suspect Hasbro & Paramount are playing the long game on the D&D cinematic universe, one movie's box office by itself won't decide the fate of the DDCU.

 

[Zardnaar]

Debatable!

Well that article gives you the movies projected ceiling.

If it's somewhat accurate the D&D movie won't make its budget back by week 3.

John Wick made double its budget week two and had a 60%+ fall off. D&D movie prijectiin is "only" a 40%+ falloff.

 

[darjr]

My OP was purely about the box office numbers.

It's not do you like the movie or what do the critics think. It's basically will this movie make money by itself.

Point taken, however the thread is 15 pages long and I wasn’t necessarily responding to just the OP.

 

[bedir than]

Well that article gives you the movies projected ceiling.

If it's somewhat accurate the D&D movie won't make its budget back by week 3.

John Wick made double its budget week two and had a 60%+ fall off. D&D movie prijectiin is "only" a 40%+ falloff.

Have you moved the goalposts so far that the only way the D&D movie is a success is if it matches the fourth movie in a beloved series that has already made nearly billion in total and has spawned a spin off TV series plus already has two other movies in development?

 

[Clint_L]

The movie is certainly a success in the way that matters most to me: it's a good movie! That was not a foregone conclusion, and I doubt many of us thought it would be sitting at over 91% on Rotten Tomatoes with over 200 reviews in. That's rare territory for an action comedy. And if it helps interest more folks in playing D&D, then that's a win, too.

Profitability matters in the sense that I want another movie. But as Snarf pointed out, profitability can be measured in ways that go beyond box office receipts. What is the film worth to the D&D brand, for example? Or in ancillary sales (toys and other merchandise)? Or through streaming revenues over a matter of years (this is a film that I think will do VERY well on streaming services)?

 

[Zardnaar]

Have you moved the goalposts so far that the only way the D&D movie is a success is if it matches the fourth movie in a beloved series that has already made nearly billion in total and has spawned a spin off TV series plus already has two other movies in development?

Nope more an example of what it needs in terns of box office vs production cost.
John Wick is on track to being a relative hit.

D&D movie is doing a lot worse comparatively with the information we have. We know they spent something on marketing we don't know how much. It probably won't make its budget until week 3 or 4.

Anything north of 425 million is a hit. 300-425 is debatable might get a sequel below 300 is a loss.

John Wick was a success and had 60%+ drop off tge projection for D&D is 40%+ (close to 50%) best case. That's a good number btw. If it slightly outperforms it's projected ceiling it's closer to 40% slightly underperformed closer to 50% both of those numbers are relatively good week 2 (cf John Wick 66% fall off).

It's why I've been using 30-70% for drop off numbers that's where most movies typically fall week 2.

John Wick was just cheaper to make with bigger week 1. It happens.

The good news right now is projected drop off. The bad news is somewhat anemic week 1 for a 150 million movie.