D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[Zardnaar]

Goodness gracious, Mario opened to $31M domestic and $66M worldwide yesterday. No D&D numbers yet from Wednesday.

Yeah it's tracking towards monster numbers.

 

[Zardnaar]

Critic reviews won't matter, audience reviews won't matter, merchandise won't matter, streaming won't matter - it will be a flop

I'm convinced.

Critic scores don't pay the bills. They xan influence it bit if a movie has low audience scores and high crotic scores (and isn't been bombed) it might struggle.

D&D has both and its numbers are not good for breaking even.

Hell Mario's middling critic reviews seems it beat D&Ds numbers in one day.

Are critic scores useful? Yes better is always better. Are they the be all and end all? No.

 

[teitan]

Critic reviews won't matter, audience reviews won't matter, merchandise won't matter, streaming won't matter - it will be a flop

I'm convinced.

Nothing matters. Everything is a flop and nothing is popular.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Nothing matters. Everything is a flop and nothing is popular.

 

[Mistwell]

Except my OP is specifically about the box office.

John Wick for example made double its budget by week 2.

Streaming not irrelevant but its also a strawman.

I don't think Shazam 2 numbers for example will matter when it hits streaming.



It's box office fate is still gonna determine its streaming success yes? Eg it will determine how much someone's gonna pay for it.

And if Paramount has already paid it doesn't really matter.

The John Wick example is inane and not germane to the topic.

Streaming is not a strawman. Either it's part of the formula to determine if a movie has made back it's cost or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a movie is profitable or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a movie is considered a success or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a sequel is authorized or not. ALL of these things are the entire point of this topic, so don't tell me it's a strawman.

You don't know what the streaming portion of the formula is, but you've decided to entirely ignore it anyway. That's bad analysis. We have an established, published number for pre-release expectations. THAT is the only hard basis we have for determining what the box office "should" be for success or failure. That's it. That's the hard data we have.

What we don't have is that out of date pre-pandemic formula you keep using. It's not budget doubled for marketing cost to get break-even. It's not a percentage of box office to get breakeven. NEITHER of those things are accurate in 2023 and it's been years since those things were accurate. There is a large missing component to that analysis now and dismissing that out of hand and trying to hand-waive it as a strawman when it's crucial to every element of this topic isn't good analysis.

 

[darjr]

Well whatever streaming service the movie goes to I’m getting it.

 

[Undrave]

I for one will want a physical copy of the movie.

 

[Zardnaar]

The John Wick example is inane and not germane to the topic.

Streaming is not a strawman. Either it's part of the formula to determine if a movie has made back it's cost or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a movie is profitable or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a movie is considered a success or not. It's part of the formula to determine if a sequel is authorized or not. ALL of these things are the entire point of this topic, so don't tell me it's a strawman.

You don't know what the streaming portion of the formula is, but you've decided to entirely ignore it anyway. That's bad analysis. We have an established, published number for pre-release expectations. THAT is the only hard basis we have for determining what the box office "should" be for success or failure. That's it. That's the hard data we have.

What we don't have is that out of date pre-pandemic formula you keep using. It's not budget doubled for marketing cost to get break-even. It's not a percentage of box office to get breakeven. NEITHER of those things are accurate in 2023 and it's been years since those things were accurate. There is a large missing component to that analysis now and dismissing that out of hand and trying to hand-waive it as a strawman when it's crucial to every element of this topic isn't good analysis.

We don't have access to those numbers though.

If it doesn't do that well at the box office it's gonna get reported as a flop.
If it flops hard enough it's not gonna get much money from streaming. Those details are not generally publicly known but the highest number paid by Netflix is 160-200 million.

Did say earlier if it gets between 300-450 million we won't really know because of things like streaming rights and other income eg renting it and streaming it that way.

But your streaming rights fees are dependent on its box office returns it seems. You're not getting blockbuster numbers on streaming if the movie does poorly you're probably not going to get much in merchandising and other flow on income.

If it comes in around 200 million its going to get reported as a flop. And it's a very big hole they're unlikely to make up with streaming rights even if Netflix pays blockbuster money.

Even if Netflix paid blockbuster money on it's current trends and forecast drop off its close to its guesstimate break even point assuming Netflix or someone else us willing to pay $150 million (which is very unlikely).

It's not impossible but it's not looking good on the basic numbers even with an extra 150 million added its around the break even point.

I used John Wick and Mario as examples of movies that by now made their budget very quickly. Mario's likely to pass that point this weekend.

D&D is only just over half way to its budget. 45% projected falloff this weekend Those numbers are not good for hitting 300-400 million.

And how much they can get from streaming will be determined by the box office performance. Only blockbusters get the numbers needed to make up the difference.

All I'm saying it's on track to under perform at the box office. It might be able to make the difference up elsewhere but that income is also sonewhsrreluant on the box office as well for streaming rights and indirectly merchandise.

I'm making no predictions on if it makes enough for a sequel or not. No one here has access to thise numbers or even if they do lose money Hasbro might decide on sequels anyway.

Objectively it's not a smash hit that's John Wick or Mario's projections.

 

[Vaalingrade]

Well whatever streaming service the movie goes to I’m getting it.

Even HBO Max*? That's a hell of a sacrifice.

*The service that just removed content while at the same time raising the sub fee.

 

[Ruin Explorer]

Objectively it's not a smash hit that's John Wick or Mario's projections.

I was under the impression John Wick 4 was underperforming expectations.