D&D Movie/TV D&D Movie Hit or Flop?

[FrogReaver]

The very few Targets that have remaining stock still have them at full price.

There were a couple of figures we got discounted on Amazon. But the more popular characters were all full price.

 

[Velderan]

The very few Targets that have remaining stock still have them at full price.

The Targets near me still have some movie figures and dicelings full price, but they clearanced out the 80s cartoon figures a couple months ago after they sat on the shelf for a few months not selling.

 

[Velderan]

The action figures were produced to be sold to collectors and speculators, too expensive for children. With the same money a child would be happier with a box of playmobil including several figures.

They were marketed to children. You can tell because they're in the toy aisle at Target, while premium stuff marketed to adult collectors has it's own section at Target over by electronics and books.

 

[Zardnaar]

I linked the source. You didn't read it and then said that I was the sole supplier of the data. This is unethical.

Except no studio or professional covering the industry is using the prepandemic numbers now, because everything changed.
It still failed the lower 1.5 times needed in the modern context. It is still in the Top 10 movies streaming this week in the US as well as most VoD (after 100 days)

The very few Targets that have remaining stock still have them at full price.

I dod read some links not sure on that one specifically. Remember I can go to bed and there's 2-3 pages of new replies.

It's a forum not academic paper so I probably took it at face value as it's fairly close to what I would expect a 150 million movie have.

You wete the first tgat I remembered posting the number in the thread.

 

[Jaeger]

Except no studio or professional covering the industry is using the prepandemic numbers now, because everything changed.
...

Empirically untrue.

Post "Pandemic":

Variety:
Oppenheimer reportedly had a production budget of around 100 million:

Avatar2 reportedly had a production budget of around $460 million:

James Cameron Says ‘Avatar 2’ Will ‘Easily’ Break Even at Box Office and Turn a Profit: ‘I’m Gonna Have to Do the Sequels’

With over $1.5 billion and counting, "Avatar: The Way of Water" is heading towards the $2 billion mark at the worldwide box office.

variety.com

Deadline:
Little Mermaid reportedly had a production budget of around $250 million + &140m marketing:

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

Babylon reportedly had a production budget of around $110 million:

No Jazz For ‘Babylon’ At Domestic Box Office With $4M+ Debut; Brad Pitt-Margot Robbie Epic Won’t Hit $250M Breakeven: Here’s Why

'Babylon' Bombs: Brad Pitt Margot Robbie Movie Won't Breakeven: Here's Why

deadline.com

These are the vaunted "Industry Professionals" reporting on what films need to make to break even, and not flop at the box office.

They are also clearly using virtually the same metrics that Zardnaar and I have been applying to D&D Honor among Thieves.

It is still in the Top 10 movies streaming this week in the US as well as most VoD (after 100 days)

Please provide the Honor Among Thieves streaming revenue numbers.

Or admit that you have no way of tying actual dollars earned to those streaming chart standings, and that you have no way of proving that it is breaking even, let alone turning a profit.

 

[bedir than]

Empirically untrue.

Post "Pandemic":

Variety:
Oppenheimer reportedly had a production budget of around 100 million:

Avatar2 reportedly had a production budget of around $460 million:

James Cameron Says ‘Avatar 2’ Will ‘Easily’ Break Even at Box Office and Turn a Profit: ‘I’m Gonna Have to Do the Sequels’

With over $1.5 billion and counting, "Avatar: The Way of Water" is heading towards the $2 billion mark at the worldwide box office.

variety.com

Deadline:
Little Mermaid reportedly had a production budget of around $250 million + &140m marketing:

‘Little Mermaid’ Swimming Against Strong Tides At Overseas Box Office, Leaving Break-Even In Question

In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live action title based on a treasured animated classic, 'The Little Mermaid' may lose money.

deadline.com

Babylon reportedly had a production budget of around $110 million:

No Jazz For ‘Babylon’ At Domestic Box Office With $4M+ Debut; Brad Pitt-Margot Robbie Epic Won’t Hit $250M Breakeven: Here’s Why

'Babylon' Bombs: Brad Pitt Margot Robbie Movie Won't Breakeven: Here's Why

deadline.com

These are the vaunted "Industry Professionals" reporting on what films need to make to break even, and not flop at the box office.

They are also clearly using virtually the same metrics that Zardnaar and I have been applying to D&D Honor among Thieves.




Please provide the Honor Among Thieves streaming revenue numbers.

Or admit that you have no way of tying actual dollars earned to those streaming chart standings, and that you have no way of proving that it is breaking even, let alone turning a profit.

Cool. Let's do this in the old Fire Joe Morgan style.

Your first link doesn't use 2 or 2.5 x as you claim it does. It specifically states that Nolan's rev share is the reason it had to make so much more.

Your second link EXPLICITLY contradicts your claim

When Cameron said in November that “The Way of Water” would need to become “the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history” just to “break even,” it appeared he was referring to the $2 billion mark. The director clarified his comment to Chris Wallace, saying, “I never actually gave it a number. I said it would has to be among the highest-grossing films in history and somebody else applied that number and it got picked up. The number is actually less.”

Your third link also doesn't say two or two-point-five.
In fact, it's break even was in the low 400s on a 380 spend.

At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even. However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M.

And your fourth also proves that 2 and 2.5 just aren't used anymore.

That said, this movie’s profit point lives around $250M WW, and that’s with a global marketing spend of around $80M, the same as its production cost.

The facts aren't on your side, just based on reading the thourough evidence that you provided. All of these would have shown profitability at less than 1.5 total spend.

 

[Zardnaar]

Cool. Let's do this in the old Fire Joe Morgan style.

Your first link doesn't use 2 or 2.5 x as you claim it does. It specifically states that Nolan's rev share is the reason it had to make so much more.

Your second link EXPLICITLY contradicts your claim


Your third link also doesn't say two or two-point-five.
In fact, it's break even was in the low 400s on a 380 spend.



And your fourth also proves that 2 and 2.5 just aren't used anymore.



The facts aren't on your side, just based on reading the thourough evidence that you provided. All of these would have shown profitability at less than 1.5 total spend.

They're basically reporting a film has to get around double its costs at the box office to be a hit.

Less than that it starts getting unclear due to the back end.

The various numbers being thrown around don't work so well for low budget movies eg the marketing budget is more than the production budget.

2.5 is used if marketing budget is unknown.

X2 is used if it us known marketing budget+production. If a movie passes tgat the back end doesn't matter to much its probably gonna make money.

1.5 one guy used thst. It's very low some movies xan do this (performs strongly domestic front loaded opening weekend).

The two higher numbers are basically guarantees. Not absolute eg a movie vastly over performs in foreign market or worse China.

D&D didn't come close on any of them. Somewhere around 325-375 is your number needed.

The studios can't fudge the box office numbers like they can with internal accounting.

An example of a movie that's marginal is The Little Mermaid and Elementals is creeping up as well. They'll probably make money due to the back end.

 

[bedir than]

They're basically reporting a film has to get around double its costs at the box office to be a hit.

This is absolutely, completely and wholly untrue.
The quotes I provided show nothing of the sort.
Please, I beg of you. Read the links and quotes. They don't claim what you are saying. Most don't even suggest needing 1.5 to profit. Janes Cameron said people using your math are wrong, essentially making things up

 

[Jaeger]

There is a reason we use the words about and around when using the traditional metric.

But it does still get you in the ballpark:

Your first link doesn't use 2 or 2.5 x as you claim it does. It specifically states that Nolan's rev share is the reason it had to make so much more.

Why does it need to be so high at 400m with a 100m budget?

...will need to generate at least $400 million at the global box office in order to turn a profit.

Likely because with 1.5x2, it needed to make at least around 300m to break even. With Nolan's special deal it needed to hit the eye-watering 400m. Which it is doing and more...

Your second link EXPLICITLY contradicts your claim

Avatar2 reportedly had a production budget of around $460 million:

Sources put “Avatar: The Way of Water’s” break-even point at roughly $1.4 billion

460 1.5x2 = about 1,38 billion; shockingly close to Variety's stated break even point of 1.4 billion...

Your third link also doesn't say two or two-point-five.
In fact, it's break even was in the low 400s on a 380 spend.

Little mermaid $250 million + &140m marketing x2 = $790 needed to break even:

In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office

It's 560m haul on its first week merely put the Little Mermaid in a break even scenario...

It did make about 1 billion, but considering its break even point of around $790m was so high to begin with, even variety listed it as a bit of a middling performance:

From ‘Mario’ to ‘The Flash’: The Good, the Bad and the Meh of the 2023 Box Office (So Far)

Here's a look at the movies that scored, struck out, or fell somewhere in the middle, during the first half of 2023.

variety.com

And your fourth also proves that 2 and 2.5 just aren't used anymore.

Babylons budget it is actually $80 million; My mistake.

Brad Pitt-Margot Robbie Epic Won’t Hit $250M Breakeven: Here’s why:

80million 1.5x2 = 240 million. Seems that metric puts things in the ballpark for Variety's stated break even point for the film. Funny that...

It seems that the old traditional ballpark metric still has some legs after all...


Back to this:

It is still in the Top 10 movies streaming this week in the US as well as most VoD

Please provide the Honor Among Thieves streaming revenue numbers.

Or admit that you have no way of tying actual dollars earned to those streaming chart standings, and that you have no way of proving that it is breaking even, let alone turning a profit.

 

[bedir than]

Why does it need to be so high at 400m with a 100m budget?


Likely because with 1.5x2, it needed to make at least around 300m to break even. With Nolan's special deal it needed to hit the eye-watering 400m. Which it is doing and more...




Avatar2 reportedly had a production budget of around $460 million:


460 1.5x2 = about 1,38 billion; shockingly close to Variety's stated break even point of 1.4 billion...




Little mermaid $250 million + &140m marketing x2 = $790 needed to break even:


It's 560m haul on its first week merely put the Little Mermaid in a break even scenario...

It did make about 1 billion, but considering its break even point of $790m was so high to begin with, even variety listed it as a bit of a middling performance:

From ‘Mario’ to ‘The Flash’: The Good, the Bad and the Meh of the 2023 Box Office (So Far)

Here's a look at the movies that scored, struck out, or fell somewhere in the middle, during the first half of 2023.

variety.com

Babylons budget it is actually $80 million; My mistake.



80million 1.5x2 = 240 million. Seems that metric puts things in the ballpark for Variety's stated break even point for the film. Funny that...

It seems that the old traditional ballpark metric still has some legs after all...


Back to this:


Please provide the Honor Among Thieves streaming revenue numbers.

Or admit that you have no way of tying actual dollars earned to those streaming chart standings, and that you have no way of proving that it is breaking even, let alone turning a profit.

I can believe your interpretation of the articles you linked or the actual data in the articles you linked

Your demands for me to support claims I haven't made are unethical