Bedrockgames
I post in the voice of Christopher Walken
Okay but a "procedure" is...a description of specific actions. Not a generalized broad-swathe paintbrush. An "approach" is certainly less specific, but when we're literally talking about specific techniques, saying things like "I use real-world logic", what does that even mean? I know what actual logic is--I've actually studied it academically, and did quite well, I am proud to say--but this "real-world logic" is neither a process nor an approach. It is a loose hand-wave. Same for things like just dropping the word "coaching" or the like without saying anything about it. That's not an approach except in the most totally abstracted (and thus useless) sense.
I did too, but we aren;t talking about socratic logic or something. People are using casual English when they say stuff like that. They just mean, is it plausible, does it seem like the most realistic outcome to them. That is a subjective judgment based on their own experience of reality, and as @robertsconley says thinking through a series of what-ifs. They aren't following a rigid procedure to arrive at the scientifically true answer. They aren't running simulations on a computer. Now this might not be enough for you, and that is fine. But try to understand this is more than enough for many, many people. See my other post I just made about it not being rocket science.
If I may use an analogy: It is like saying, "Ethics means choosing to do what's good and not choosing to do what is harmful." Sounds great, except that the sentence is completely vacuous. The whole point of ethics, as a discipline within philosophy, is to figure out what "do what's good" IS! And both "good" and "harmful" are completely undefined as this sentence goes. A saintly good person and a twisted psychopath could both say those exact words, and fully mean them!
Sure, but there are also things we can generally agree on, like murdering someone for looking at you the wrong way isn't right (I get that not EVERYONE agrees with this, but I would imagine ALL or MOST OF US agree with this). Generally in my experience, GMs running settings based on realism, know they have to answer to the player's sensibilities as well as their own, so they try to make calls that will be agreed upon in that way. And when there is uncertainty dice often come into play