It occurred to me that the levels 3, 6, 11, 16, 21, and 26 might not be the best levels to hand out the next level of magic armor. So, I compared Leather Armor (+4 starting Dex) with Chainmail, both AC 16 at level one.
I was hoping that there would be some levels in which to hand out Light Armor earlier before handing out Heavy Armor to even out the small skew, but it doesn't work that way due to the fact that MW bumps the armors up by 2 or 3 depending.
So, the best I could come up with were levels 3, 7, 11, 17, 21, and 25. This worked out to be the same optimal levels for both Light and Heavy armor.
The average same level opponent to hit on Leather Armor here was 8.87 and the average on Chain Mail was 9.1, a difference of 0.23. Effectively, the heavy armor is +1 better on 7 levels out of 30 (compared to the core rules where light armor is +2 better on 2 levels, +1 better on 11 levels, and heavy armor is +1 better on 2 levels for an average of 8.87 vs. 8.43 or a difference of 0.44 in favor of light armor).
Throwing Armor Specialization into the mix at level 11 yielded:
The average same level opponent to hit on Leather Armor here was 9.5 and the average on Chain Mail was 9.73.
My conclusion is that the DM should hand out the next best magic armor near the end of levels 2, 6, 10, 16, 20, and 24 for use on the following level if he wants a curve that is as smooth as it can get with the revised rules.
I was hoping that there would be some levels in which to hand out Light Armor earlier before handing out Heavy Armor to even out the small skew, but it doesn't work that way due to the fact that MW bumps the armors up by 2 or 3 depending.
So, the best I could come up with were levels 3, 7, 11, 17, 21, and 25. This worked out to be the same optimal levels for both Light and Heavy armor.
The average same level opponent to hit on Leather Armor here was 8.87 and the average on Chain Mail was 9.1, a difference of 0.23. Effectively, the heavy armor is +1 better on 7 levels out of 30 (compared to the core rules where light armor is +2 better on 2 levels, +1 better on 11 levels, and heavy armor is +1 better on 2 levels for an average of 8.87 vs. 8.43 or a difference of 0.44 in favor of light armor).
Throwing Armor Specialization into the mix at level 11 yielded:
The average same level opponent to hit on Leather Armor here was 9.5 and the average on Chain Mail was 9.73.
My conclusion is that the DM should hand out the next best magic armor near the end of levels 2, 6, 10, 16, 20, and 24 for use on the following level if he wants a curve that is as smooth as it can get with the revised rules.