D&D (2024) 1d&d needs to do better with weapon math than we are seeing.

tetrasodium

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We got a preview of weapon math from the creator summit thing
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We've got 1d4 1d6 1d8 1d10 1d12 & 2d6 with simple spanning 1d4(avg2.5) 1d6(avg 3.5) 1d8(avg 4.5) up to 1d10(avg 5.5) and martial spanning 1* 1d4(avg2.5) 1d8(avg 4.5) 1d10(avg 5.5) 1d12(avg 6.5) & 2d6(avg 7 but not). Most of these weapons are likely to be mechanically rated as "unusable" by players & the math will support their venom should the dm dare expect them to waste precious ink/graphite/bits adding one to the list of loot. That's a situation that is grossly unfair to DMs. If you look only at the average, those weapons have an average are all roughly equal in except for the d4 & d6 before considering probability & other mechanics.

Probability & other mechanics skew things dramatically because players are not likely to make enough attacks in one round one fight one session or maybe even one campaign for the average to balance out. All but one of those weapons has an equal chance of rolling any possible value & can roll a 1 just as often as max or somewhere in the middle. The one outlier is that 2d6 where you have a nice skewing of probability towards a reliable 5-9 with 50% odds & only a 16.67% chance of rolling a value less than 5. Coincidentally 16.67% is the same odds of rolling exactly seven. What this says is that the sole 2d6 weapon is an absolute must take choice for any 2h build capable of using it.

Abilities that allow a PC to reroll ones or reroll ones & twos creates serious problems in further forcing that option above all other trash options though because those are pretty common. Setting aside the sole dual die weapon, with simple weapons spanning an average of 2.5-5.5 & martial single die weapons 2.5-6.5 it makes for little tangible value in martial weapons if a player's build is not using that dual die weapon & that's a problem. Those abilities grossly overinflate the value of that one weapon. Here is the anydice result for 2d6 reroll ones & twos which is obviously dramatically better than straight 2d6. How much better might not be entirely obvious just from the shape of as graph in isolation but things change if you look at comparing the probability of getting over a given value for damage on any given roll, you can see that probability comparison of 2d6 crs 2d6 reroll 1s & 2s here. Comparing 2d6 2d6 reroll 1s & 2s against every other weapon provides this even more starkly problematic graph.

Back in 3.x weapons had a numeric crit multiplier & numeric crit range on top of the damage die itself that allowed room for many weapons to be useful to someone due to the presence of three variables rather than one. These new weapon mastery tags might put some subjectivity in place between two equal die weapons, but lets be honest & admit that there are going to be must take winner masteries even if those are build specific leanings that pigeonhole a certain weapon to certain builds It doesn't need to be that way though.. 2d4 is slightly better average than 1d8 & gives the a similar dual die probability shift, likewise for 1d4+1d6 compared to 1d10 or 3d4 vrs 1d12 & 2d6 with all of those visible in this anydice output. By adding those extra two & three dice combos to weapons on the table it might not make every weapon desirable, but if done well it could make most builds have more than a single weapon worthy of subjective consideration.



* Yes one point of damage.. seriously WTF guys... why is this so low and martial. If the goal is to allow fluff this should be simple. If the goal is to gate this a bit, it should at least be competitive with a sling.
 

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James Gasik

We don't talk about Pun-Pun
I've long had a similar rant with regards to armor. There are some armor types that nobody really has any reason to wear. You need a flow chart to figure out what the best armor is to wear, and some fall through the cracks.
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One time, during a game, the DM was rolling random treasure and a suit of +1 Ring Mail appeared. So impressive and useful!
 

GMMichael

Guide of Modos
We've got 1d4 1d6 1d8 1d10 1d12 & 2d6 with simple spanning 1d4(avg2.5) 1d6(avg 3.5) 1d8(avg 4.5) up to 1d10(avg 5.5) and martial spanning 1* 1d4(avg2.5) 1d8(avg 4.5) 1d10(avg 5.5) 1d12(avg 6.5) & 2d6(avg 7 but not). Most of these weapons are likely to be mechanically rated as "unusable" by players & the math will support their venom...
Funny, I was detecting some venom too.

should the dm dare expect them to waste precious ink/graphite/bits adding one to the list of loot. That's a situation that is grossly unfair to DMs. If you look only at the average, those weapons have an average are all roughly equal in except for the d4 & d6 before considering probability & other mechanics.
Some loot is preferable to no loot. Are you saying that PCs are jerks, or something else here?

I've long had a similar rant with regards to armor. There are some armor types that nobody really has any reason to wear. You need a flow chart to figure out what the best armor is to wear, and some fall through the cracks.
View attachment 281348
One time, during a game, the DM was rolling random treasure and a suit of +1 Ring Mail appeared. So impressive and useful!
This chart doesn't seem to account for cash flow. Or rust monsters.
 

This chart doesn't seem to account for cash flow. Or rust monsters.
Absolutely it does.

In the staggeringly unlikely event that a Rust Monster destroys your armour in 5E (1 game in 1000 maybe?), you use the chart to determine what you can wear instead from what's left, or what to buy to replace it. The idea that you walk around in leather because you're scared of Rust Monsters is apex-tier "Fantasy [unprintable] Vietnam" PTSD idiocy of the most amazing kind.

And cash-flow, unless your DM is being incredibly weird, is no longer an issue by what, level 3? Level 4 at the outside? Plus literally one armour type is made an issue by it - Full Plate. Everything else is typically affordable at level 2 at the latest.

In a lot of cases you can get the "right" armour at character creation.
 

aco175

Legend
I would think that the Mastery trait will have some influence over just what is the best damage for my PC. Maybe some people still have some roleplay element to their PC as well. Maybe there is also something to the commonality of each weapon and how that equates to the most found magic. If I want to take the basic longsword over the rapier, then I might expect to find more of these being magic.
 

tetrasodium

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I would think that the Mastery trait will have some influence over just what is the best damage for my PC. Maybe some people still have some roleplay element to their PC as well. Maybe there is also something to the commonality of each weapon and how that equates to the most found magic. If I want to take the basic longsword over the rapier, then I might expect to find more of these being magic.
I don't think it will have that much more influence than disadvantage on stealth for some armors. Certain builds might lean one way or another, but there are a lot of weapons sharing a small number of dice.
 

Here is the anydice result for 2d6 reroll ones & twos which is obviously dramatically better than straight 2d6. How much better might not be entirely obvious just from the shape of as graph in isolation but things change if you look at comparing the probability of getting over a given value for damage on any given roll, you can see that probability comparison of 2d6 crs 2d6 reroll 1s & 2s here. Comparing 2d6 2d6 reroll 1s & 2s against every other weapon provides this even more starkly problematic graph.
Your calculations aren't correct, here. Rerolling 1s and 2s does not remove 1s and 2s from the potential result. Whatever you roll the second time around, you keep.

Here's a function that does that, and shows the results for the different weapon die sizes: link

It remains roughly +1 to the average result as you increase along the die steps, going from 4.2 to 5.3 to 6.3 to 7.3 to 8.3 for d6/d8/d10/d12/2d6. 2d6 does gain a little bit over 1d12 when the reroll is factored in, with a net +1 instead of +0.5 if there are no rerolls, but it's not the +1.5 that your charts suggest.

That said, there's still definitely a hierarchy of results that make some weapons definitively better than others, and that can be annoying, but the associated traits generally balance that out. For example, gaining Reach generally drops the damage by a die tier. And of course, the more flat damage you add (from either attributes or magic bonuses), then less impact the die size has on the final output.
 

tetrasodium

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Your calculations aren't correct, here. Rerolling 1s and 2s does not remove 1s and 2s from the potential result. Whatever you roll the second time around, you keep.

Here's a function that does that, and shows the results for the different weapon die sizes: link

It remains roughly +1 to the average result as you increase along the die steps, going from 4.2 to 5.3 to 6.3 to 7.3 to 8.3 for d6/d8/d10/d12/2d6. 2d6 does gain a little bit over 1d12 when the reroll is factored in, with a net +1 instead of +0.5 if there are no rerolls, but it's not the +1.5 that your charts suggest.

That said, there's still definitely a hierarchy of results that make some weapons definitively better than others, and that can be annoying, but the associated traits generally balance that out. For example, gaining Reach generally drops the damage by a die tier. And of course, the more flat damage you add (from either attributes or magic bonuses), then less impact the die size has on the final output.
Thanks. I left it as I did just because the odds of rolling one or two twice in a row on both dice are vanishingly low & still pretty low rolling three of them reroll ones & twos on 1dx is not the same distortion with doing it on a weapon with two dice that max out at max weapon table damage for reliable solid damage rolls.
 

tetrasodium

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updated charts. here are the base weapon damage dice with reroll 1s &2s using the code from @Kinematics. Averages are affected like so
  • 1d4 avg2.5 -> avgavg3
  • 1d6 avg 3.5 -> avg4.17
  • 1d8 avg 4.5 -> avg5.25
  • 1d10 avg 5.5 -> avg6.3
  • 1d12 avg 6.5 -> avg7.33
  • 2d6 avg 7 -> avg8.33
The average for 2d6 reroll ones & twos is better than the max of any weapon d8 or lower. and the averages for the 2d4, 1d4+1d6, 3d4 & 2d6 before & after reroll 1s & 2s here.
  • 2d4 avg 5 -> avg 6 with 84.33% odds of =>5 & 65.63% odds of >= 6
  • 1d4+1d6 avg 6-> avg 7.17 with 82.64% odds of =>6 & 66.67% odds of >= 7
  • 3d4 avg 7-> avg 12 with 84.38% odds of =>7 & odds of >= 10
    • I had to jump this to 10 for it to fall under 90%+
  • 2d6 avg 7 ->avg 8.33 with 99.44% odds of =>7 & 66.67% odds of >=8
  • probability one here probability 2 here
 

Most of these weapons are likely to be mechanically rated as "unusable" by players & the math will support their venom should the dm dare expect them to waste precious ink/graphite/bits adding one to the list of loot.
Who the heck is your social circle, that this is going to be the reaction of the players in your groups?

Probability & other mechanics skew things dramatically because players are not likely to make enough attacks in one round one fight one session or maybe even one campaign for the average to balance out. All but one of those weapons has an equal chance of rolling any possible value & can roll a 1 just as often as max or somewhere in the middle. The one outlier is that 2d6 where you have a nice skewing of probability towards a reliable 5-9 with 50% odds & only a 16.67% chance of rolling a value less than 5. Coincidentally 16.67% is the same odds of rolling exactly seven. What this says is that the sole 2d6 weapon is an absolute must take choice for any 2h build capable of using it.
Ignoring the factual inconsistency of the claim that there is only one 2d6 weapon, you don't seem to be taking into account the other weapon properties.
 

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